Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 311949
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WEAK REMNANTS OF A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTH AND A SMALL SFC
LOW OVER INDIANA ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  YESTERDAY THE 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE CONFINED
TO RIGHT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.  TODAY, THEY ARE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD, EVEN THIS LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING OUT HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN THE ALMOST STAGNANT AIRMASS. SOME OBS IN THE SOUTHEAST ARE
ACTUALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AFTER SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE
STORMS THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER, QUITE LIKELY GOING TO SEE THOSE
DEWPOINTS REBOUND QUICKLY DUE TO A LOT OF QPF/MOISTURE IN THE SOIL.
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOG IS ONCE AGAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN. WITH SOME
MIXING STILL TO COME, HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...THEN READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  DRY WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE
THE RULE...HOWEVER ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN 500MB
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THIS FEATURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHEN A STRONG SHORT-WAVE FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.  MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM DOES NOT BRING THE COLD THROUGH THE
CWA AT ALL AND KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN
PERSISTENT AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...THINK A SLOWER BREAK DOWN TO THE PATTERN IS STILL BEST
SOLUTION.  HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED SLOWER.  AS A RESULT...AM
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
CU FIELD AND SOME CIRRUS TODAY WITH THE CIGS LINGERING AT THE
MVFR/VFR BREAK. PIA MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE SCT TERRITORY, AND A
COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS
SCOURED OUT THE VERTICAL GROWTH FOR CMI. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT, VEERING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. BIGGER ISSUE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH LAST NIGHT WAS MORE SCATTERED, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
70S, SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HAVE DROPPED TEMPO TO 1SM FOR NOW KEEPING IT TO IFR PREDAWN.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS


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