Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 290202
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper air and moisture channel satellite data shows closed upper
low center over north central IN. This feature will remain driver
for weather over region next few days. Low center spinning, and
is showing first signs of it shifting to the south, as all the
models are in agreement that it will do tonight into Thursday,
reaching north central KY by Thurs evening. Deep moisture with the
low will continue to wrap around the low, with bands of showers
rotating around system, periodically affecting central IL region.

Overnight, as low drifts to the south, low cloudiness will move
back into eastern half of region, keeping chance pops over region
through most of day tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper low continues to meander southeastward toward central Indiana
this afternoon. Next batch of scattered showers is starting to move
into areas around Bloomington and Champaign as the next trough
rotates into central Illinois. Most of these will fade with sunset,
but the northeast CWA will see some showers linger into evening, as
it is more downwind of Lake Michigan and its associated lake-effect
showers. Areas further west from the low toward the Illinois River
valley will see some clearing take place this evening, as clouds are
more diurnal in nature in that area.

Upper low will drift south into central Kentucky on Thursday, with
showers on the increase by mid morning across mainly the eastern
half of the CWA. Have kept the mention of isolated thunder over
areas along and east of I-57, where mid-level lapse rates will be a
bit steeper with the 500 mb cold pool in closer proximity. Once
again, clouds will be in no hurry to move out, although the Illinois
River valley may see enough sunshine to boost temperatures into the
lower 70s. Elsewhere, upper 60s should prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

What you see is largely what you get over the next several days
across central and southeast Illinois. A pesky upper-level low will
continue to wobble over the Midwest through Sunday. It will be
accompanied by unseasonably cool temperatures, considerable cloud
cover, and scattered showers. The clouds and showers should exhibit
diurnal peaks. The model agreement is quite good in this scenario.
Any warming over the next few days should be quite gradual,
primarily through airmass modification.

The upper low will finally lift away from the area early next work
week, to be replaced by strong ridging and much warmer temperatures.
The next chance of appreciable rainfall will occur around the middle
of next week as strong cold front pushes into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Little change in previous trend of TAFs. Satellite imagery shows
upper low over northern IN with waves of clouds rotating around
low, southward into state. Much of cloudiness overnight will be
vfr with breaks possible in the west sections. Few early scattered
showers over the east. As upper low slips southward over IN, this
will bring increased low level moisture and ifr/mvfr cigs over
mainly eastern TAF sites toward morning and through midday. Winds
will reamin northerly and at times gusty.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Goetsch



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