Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 280548
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1248 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Monitoring storms across Central Illinois this evening and
watching another line of activity approach the western portions of
the state. Expect much of this line to mainly impact areas along
and west of I-55 this evening...with more scattered activity
possible elsewhere. No major updates expected at this point, but
will continue to monitor extent of thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary lying across the southern TAF sites early this
morning with scattered TSRA occurring along the boundary. The
storms look to be weakening and expect that trend to continue
over the next several hours. Latest satellite data and surface
observations suggest our TAF forecast area will be in between
LIFR cigs across our north, to possibly a period of VFR cigs
across the south. Low pressure will track across the area today
and be to our east later this afternoon. Until then, this track
will bring about variable wind directions across the forecast
area with mostly an easterly flow in the north, and winds
shifting from a east to southeast direction into more of a
southwesterly flow later this morning as the low tracks across
central Illinois. We look for mostly MVFR to low VFR cigs
once the low shifts off to our east later today into tonight.
Winds will be westerly at that time as well across the
forecast area with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith



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