Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A strong upper level ridge over the MS river valley including
IL is providing another very warm and somewhat humid summerlike day,
with temps in the mid 80s to near 90F and dewpoints in the 60s.
Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds with bases of 5-7k ft over
CWA this afternoon should dissipate around sunset today leaving fair
skies much of the night. Light winds combined with fairly moist
boundary layer will allow some fog to form again overnight spreading
from ne to sw across CWA and lift by mid Sunday morning.
The fog could get locally dense in spots over southeast IL where
winds will be lightest. Lows overnight should be in the mid to upper
60s with coolest readings in east central IL.

A 1004 mb surface low pressure over west central ND has a cold front
extending southward into western Nebraska/SD. The 12Z models bring
some qpf into far western/nw CWA late tonight where slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms, but much of area will stay dry thru the
night. A 564 dm 500 mb low along the eastern MT/WY border will lift
into southern Manitoba by Sunday afternoon and push the cold front
east into the IL river valley late Sunday afternoon. Will see
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from west to east
during the day Sunday, though far eastern/southeast IL should stay
dry until Sunday evening. One more warm summerlike day in the mid to
upper 80s (except lower 80s by Galesburg) on Sunday and dewpoints in
the mid 60s to near 70F. SPC day2 continues a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms with 5% risk of hail and gusty winds north of I-
72 Sunday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The 12z model runs are showing a slightly slower progression of the
cold front Sunday night. There is good agreement between the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM on showers continuing Sunday evening in a majority
of our forecast area, especially east of I-55 where we went with
likely PoPs. Thunder potential will wane quickly Sunday evening, as
the front departs into Indiana and instability params weaken
considerably by 03z. Showers appear likely east of I-57 after
midnight, while rain ends west of I-55.

Some post-frontal showers could linger into Monday morning southeast
of I-70, but all rain should end in our southeast counties by mid-
day. Much cooler air will limit highs on Monday to the upper 60s N
of I-74, with low 70s in the rest of our forecast area. The occluded
surface and upper level low pressure systems north of Lake Superior
will drift southeast Monday night through Wednesday, allowing the
cooler air mass to remain entrenched in Illinois due to deep layer
NW flow. Highs may climb a couple degrees each day on Tuesday and
Wednesday, but still remain in the low to mid 70s. Low temps will
dip into the upper 40s to low 50s each morning.

Instability showers due to steep mid-level lapse rates should
remain northeast of our counties through that period, even as the
upper trough deepens just east of Illinois Wednesday into Thursday.
The ECMWF cuts off a low in the base of the trough on Thursday,
while the Canadian and GFS are a little more progressive and shift
the trough toward the East Coast. The later consensus was followed
by the model blend, which should coincide with colder air shifting
east of Illinois. However, the increase in high temps on Thursday
and Friday was decreased slightly from previous model runs.
Southerly surface winds may not become established until Saturday,
delaying the arrival of warmer conditions until next weekend. High
temps even on Saturday are only projected to reach the mid to upper
70s. The slower onset of return flow winds will also set the stage
from dry conditions from Monday afternoon through next Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Low stratus clouds of 1-2k ft lifted north of PIA by midday while
scattered cumulus clouds with bases of 4.5-6k ft developed by
midday south of I-74. Added tempo broken vfr ceilings along I-74
this afternoon. These diurnally driven cumulus clouds will
dissipate around sunset 00Z/7 pm leaving fair skies this evening.
Several models continue to show patchy fog developing overnight
and continued the MVFR vsbys after 06Z and tempo groups down to
1-1.5 miles with scattered clouds below 1k ft. A cold front over
the central plains extending southward from 1005 mb low pressure
in sw ND will track eastward into eastern IA and central MO by
18Z Sunday. Added VCSH at PIA after 15Z Sunday but feel brunt of
convection will hold off until after 18Z sunday afternoon as cold
front moves east into IL. Winds stay fairly light next 24 hours
generally less than 10 kts with lights winds this afternoon and
tonight becoming south 5-10 kts after 15Z Sunday.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Shimon
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