Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 162028
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Sharp upper trough extending from Lower Michigan to Missouri is
currently creating enough synoptic lift to trigger scattered snow
showers across central Illinois. Visibilities have occasionally
been reduced to around 2 miles: however, accumulations have been
been minimal. Satellite trends show partial clearing behind the
trough axis across Iowa and northern Illinois, so am expecting
clouds to hang on for a few more hours before skies clear from
northwest to southeast after sunset. Overnight lows will be in the
single digits above zero...with wind-chills from five below to ten
below zero. Sunshine will return to the picture on Wednesday,
allowing temperatures to slowly moderate into the lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Its smooth sailing for much of the extended. After one more cold
night Wednesday night, a marked warming trend will get underway
for the end of the week. Temperatures will climb into the 30s on
Thursday...then will soar into the 50s by Saturday and Sunday. As
has been well-advertised for the past several days, the next
storm system of note will not impact the region until late in the
weekend...resulting in rain chances arriving by Saturday night and
Sunday. In fact, if the GFS low track across central Illinois
verifies, would not be surprised to see some isolated thunder
introduced to the forecast Sunday/Sunday night. After the system
passes, mild and dry weather will return early next week with
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Scattered snow-showers will persist at the central Illinois
terminals through mid-afternoon, before the precip gradually
shifts further south and dissipates later in the day. While
occasional breaks in the overcast have been observed this morning,
ceilings have generally been in the MVFR category. All model data
suggests the MVFR ceilings will persist until skies clear from
northwest to southeast this evening. Based on satellite trends and
HRRR forecast, have scattered the clouds at KPIA at 03z...then
further east to KCMI by 05z. Winds will initially be from the
NW at 10-15kt this afternoon, then will decrease and back to W/SW
by Wednesday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes



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