Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

For today, models are not depicting any coherent disturbance to
bring any substantial lift into central IL, as a shortwave over the
Dakotas and Iowa is expected to lift northeastward likely keeping
its influence out of our area, and another on over SE Missouri to
propagate eastward through southern IL, potentially grazing Clay and
Richland counties. Nevertheless, with increasing moisture resulting
in dewpoints reaching around 60 by afternoon...enough instability
will result with afternoon heating that isolated thunderstorms could
form along any leftover boundaries from convection in the region
overnight. Therefore, have trimmed thunderstorm chances to slight
category for today SW of a Bloomington-Effingham line. With several
hundred to 1500 J/KG CAPE progged west of the Illinois River, a
few of these could become strong with hail and gusty winds,
therefore SPC has outlooked these areas in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms.

Otherwise...highs today should reach the low 80s today, down
marginally since Monday due to increased cloud cover, and
southerly winds around 10 mph will continue through the day.


.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Upper level flow from the southwest expected to persist most of the
week, with the upper low currently just south of San Francisco
expected to only reach western Kansas by Friday evening in a weaker
state. Once that low lifts northeast into the northern Plains this
weekend, another will dig southward across the western U.S. and keep
the southwest flow continuing. Net result will be an extended period
of warm and somewhat humid conditions lasting into the holiday
weekend. Individual ripples in the upper pattern will enhance rain
chances periodically, as surface boundaries to our north will not
move much. While it will not be a continuous washout, such a pattern
makes it difficult to pin down any dry periods in the forecast.
Thus, most of the forecast periods will continue to have at least a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Currently looks like most of this evening will be dry over the
forecast area, with an uptick in rain chances after midnight as an
MCS organizes to our northwest. GFS tracks its remnants more or less
on top of us, while the ECMWF and NAM keep most of them to our
north. Another thunderstorm cluster more likely to affect the CWA
Wednesday night, and likely PoP`s were kept from about Havana-Paris
northward. Latest SPC outlooks have backed off on the severe weather
chances over our area the next few days, as while there will be
decent instability, shear parameters are rather week. However, with
precipitable water values rising to around 1.5 inches, some of the
storms will produce locally heavy rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Another mostly quiet 06Z aviation weather period across the
central Illinois terminals. Southerly winds will persist through
the period. A stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
after sunrise Tuesday, especially west toward KPIA & KSPI, but
the probability is too low to carry in the TAFs at this time.
Assuming no rainfall occurs, VFR conditions will persist.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.