Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Models continue to forecast showers and isolated storms moving
into northwest portions of the CWA, mainly northwest of the IL
river by early afternoon and then northwest of I-55 by late
afternoon. Only made minor changes to forecast for remainder of
the day by decreasing pops down from likely into the higher chance
category. Remainder of forecast looks fine. Update will be sent
out shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017
Weak ridge over the Southern Plains and the mid Mississippi River
Valley this morning...but the deep upper low along the border of
the Upper Midwest and Canada will remain a dominant feature
through the forecast. In the short term, another mild day in store
for the Midwest, with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and
losing sunshine to increasing cloud cover. An upper wave moving
into the broader trough aloft kicks off some precip for areas NW
of I-55 for later this afternoon. This same wave drives a rather
expansive area for low pops throughout most of the forecast as the
trough elongates back into the Plains and slowly evolves into
another cut off low. But even for tonight, the progression of the
rain is slow across the remainder of the state with mild overnight


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Models starting to come into better agreement with pulling the
wave that digs into the broader trough aloft and creating a cut
off low over the center of the CONUS mid week...which will keep
periodic precip chances in the forecast through midweek. Models
generating showers all the way into Thursday evening. After a
brief break potentially Friday morning...the models diverge
slightly in the extended. Although the cutoff low and periodic
chances are agreed upon...the models still look overdone in the
persistence of the precip...more likely to be showery than
anything else. Also a concern that there may be more of a break
after midweek as the models still look like a lot of feedback is
prolonging QPF fields. Once again, the pattern shift as well as
the feedback is resulting in low confidence of forecast beyond


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR through the forecast so far... with the best potential for a
break in that VFR for PIA later this afternoon for showers and
thunderstorms. SPI and BMI holding back at VCSH for this
issuance. Models in good agreement for the moving in of moisture
through the column mid day... but not more than a low/mid deck in
guidance in advance of showers/TS for PIA. Southwesterly
winds...becoming more southerly tomorrow evening for SPI as a
ridge moves to the south of the region. Considering the broad
representation of QPF in many models and the depth of moisture in
the forecast soundings...have put vcsh in all terminals later




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