Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221109
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
609 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

Early morning surface map shows cold front pushing into far
southeast IL with its isolated showers se of IL. Some fog over
southeast IL early this morning and has been locally dense in
spots like Olney with 1/4 mile. Mentioned patchy fog early this
morning from I-70 se and should be short lived as drier air
arrives during this morning behind the cold front. Dewpoints in
southeast IL are 55-60F while dewpoints drop into the lower to
middle 40s from I-55 nw and into the upper 30s near the IA/IL
border. Clearing skies working their way se toward I-55 and expect
clouds to decrease fairly quickly se of I-55 through mid morning.
1022 mb high pressure from the eastern Dakotas into central KS to
drift east into IL during this evening. A fair amount of sunshine
expected today with breezy nnw winds. Today and Wed highs expected
to be in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
High pressure drifting east over IL tonight brings fair skies and
light winds and cool lows 35 to 40F, with patchy frost possible
later tonight ne of Champaign/Urbana where lows in the mid 30s
expected.

Storm system over the Pacific states emerges into the high plains
during mid week and brings warm air advection regime into IL Wed
and Wed night. Still appears isolated showers to mainly be north and
nw of central IL and just have small pops north of Peoria Wed
afternoon and over the IL river valley Wed night. Low pressure
over eastern CO Wed afternoon ejects ne into WI Thu evening and
pulls a cold front east thru IL Thu evening. Have likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms Thu afternoon and then diminishing
from west to east during Thu evening after passage of cold front.
SPC has 5% risk of severe storms se of I-55 from mid Thu afternoon
to sunset Thu. SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/KG could support a few
damaging wind gusts over eastern/se IL. Highs Thu in the mid 60s
to lower 70s actually warm into the low to mid 70s Fri with return
of more sunshine. A secondary cold front pivots se through central
IL Fri evening and brings isolated light rain showers to areas
from I-74 ne followed by cooler temps Friday night and Sat.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Extended models and their ensembles are showing a blocking upper
level pattern this weekend into early next week with cloudier and
unsettled weather pattern, and temperatures cooling during this
period. Strong canadian high pressure over Hudson Bay this weekend
will initially provide a cooler ene flow into central IL. Baroclinic
zone setting up to our sw over MO to have high chances of showers
while isolated showers could appear in western/sw areas by Sat
afternoon while ne areas toward I-74 likely stay dry Sat. Highs
Sat range from around 60F from Peoria north to upper 60s in
southeast IL. Strong upper level low/trof carving out in the
Rockies this weekend develops a strong surface low pressure into
western KS Sunday morning and warm front extending east into the
mid MS river valley. Expect increasing chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday and continues through
at least Monday night with highest pops sw areas. Highs Sunday
range from mid 50s from Peoria north to mid 60s in southeast IL.
Next Tue to be coolest day in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
highs as large upper level low moves into the MO river valley,
approaching western IL.

07


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through tonight as high pressure
settles in from the north. Surface winds will be out of the
north today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts
late this morning thru this afternoon. We should see winds
quickly diminish towards dark as the center of the high shifts
closer to our area, with a gradual shift into the east late
tonight.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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