Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221742
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1242 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Models continue to forecast showers and isolated storms moving
into northwest portions of the CWA, mainly northwest of the IL
river by early afternoon and then northwest of I-55 by late
afternoon. Only made minor changes to forecast for remainder of
the day by decreasing pops down from likely into the higher chance
category. Remainder of forecast looks fine. Update will be sent
out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017
Weak ridge over the Southern Plains and the mid Mississippi River
Valley this morning...but the deep upper low along the border of
the Upper Midwest and Canada will remain a dominant feature
through the forecast. In the short term, another mild day in store
for the Midwest, with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and
losing sunshine to increasing cloud cover. An upper wave moving
into the broader trough aloft kicks off some precip for areas NW
of I-55 for later this afternoon. This same wave drives a rather
expansive area for low pops throughout most of the forecast as the
trough elongates back into the Plains and slowly evolves into
another cut off low. But even for tonight, the progression of the
rain is slow across the remainder of the state with mild overnight
lows.

 &&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Models starting to come into better agreement with pulling the
wave that digs into the broader trough aloft and creating a cut
off low over the center of the CONUS mid week...which will keep
periodic precip chances in the forecast through midweek. Models
generating showers all the way into Thursday evening. After a
brief break potentially Friday morning...the models diverge
slightly in the extended. Although the cutoff low and periodic
chances are agreed upon...the models still look overdone in the
persistence of the precip...more likely to be showery than
anything else. Also a concern that there may be more of a break
after midweek as the models still look like a lot of feedback is
prolonging QPF fields. Once again, the pattern shift as well as
the feedback is resulting in low confidence of forecast beyond
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Though a
boundary will drop into the area, cig heights will remain above
5kft this evening and through tomorrow. PIA and BMI will see
precip arrive first, late this afternoon...followed by SPI and
then DEC and CMI toward midnight. Cigs will become broken at all
sites around the time the precip starts at the sites. PIA and BMI
could see a break in the precip during the overnight hours, but
then it will return during the overnight hours. SPI/DEC/CMI may
see a break too, but it would be very short lived, so no break in
VCSH in the TAFs. Winds will remain southwest through the
afternoon and then become southerly to southeasterly overnight and
through tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten


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