Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271959
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis continues to show stationary frontal
boundary just south of the Ohio River, while a weak bubble of high
pressure is in place over northern Illinois.  Quiet weather is
currently occurring across much of the KILX CWA, with the exception
being a cluster of thunderstorms that has developed across southern
Sangamon County into Christian County.  These storms are well north
of the synoptic frontal boundary and are likely being triggered by a
subtle short-wave trough.  Further south, scattered storms directly
tied to the front appear to be remaining just south of the CWA:
however, models continue to suggest widely scattered storms forming
further north toward the I-70 corridor as the afternoon progresses.
With no strong synoptic forcing in the vicinity, will only carry low
chance PoPs along/south of a Jacksonville to Paris line through the
evening hours.  A stronger short-wave evident on latest water vapor
imagery over central Iowa will approach from the northwest
overnight, so have introduced slight chance PoPs across the
remainder of the area after midnight.  Best rain chances will hold
off until Thursday as stronger lift associated with the upper wave
arrives.  Will carry high chance PoPs for showers/thunder across the
board with afternoon high temperatures remaining in the lower to
middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The upper level wave that moves into the area is forecast to stay in
the area through the end of the week and into the weekend. An
associated frontal boundary will also remain present in the area
through the same time period, so the chance of showers and storms
will continue over the CWA for Thur night through Sat. The unsettled
pattern will weaken a little but small chances of pops will continue
for the rest of the weekend and into next week.

Cloud cover and scattered storms will keep temps down through most
of the period, so looking for lower to middle 80s from the end of
the week through the weekend. However, ridging building in the
plains over the weekend will drift toward the area the beginning of
next week and bring temps back to around 90 and the lower 90s for
Tue and Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A small area of showers/MVFR ceilings currently impacting KSPI
will track eastward over the next couple of hours. Have included
VCSH at KSPI between 18z and 20z accordingly...and will monitor
trends to see if KDEC may need a VCSH soon as well. Elsewhere, the
remaining terminals are experiencing mostly clear skies with just
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu developing. Main aviation forecast challenge
will be potential fog development later tonight. Fog has not been
a major issue over the past few nights and do not think it will be
tonight either. Once again some of the high-res models suggest
widespread visby reductions overnight, but have rejected their
solutions in favor of only patchy fog with visbys down to around
4-5sm. Mid clouds will be on the increase in advance of an
approaching short-wave trough tonight, but think scattered
showers/thunder will largely hold off until after 18z Thursday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes



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