Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 141134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
534 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A dry weak surface trough will slide through the area today and
bring cooler weather to the area for tonight and into tomorrow.
Before the trough moves through, west to southwest winds will be
sufficient, along with skies becoming mostly sunny, to have
afternoon highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s; which is still quite
a bit above normal. The current cloud cover should push east and
southeast as the trough moves through. The southeast will be the
last spot for the decreasing clouds and some thought that some light
precip or drizzle could be possible early this morning. However,
this precip will have pushed east and south of the CWA by start of
the new forecast. Skies will be partly cloud tonight with northwest
winds. This CAA and cloud cover should allow temps to fall into the
20s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

00Z models take 562 dm 500 mb low along the northern TX/NM border
eastward across the Gulf Coast States as it weakens thru Wed.
Meanwhile a stronger 515 dm 500 mb low over far nw Ontario dives
southeast into the eastern Great Lakes and northern upstate NY on
Wed. This drives a cold front southeast across CWA later this
afternoon and evening and through KY/TN on Wed. NW winds 10-15 mph
and gusts to 20 mph usher in more seasonable air for mid Feb on Wed
with highs in the upper 30s central and ne CWA and around 40F sw CWA
and southeast IL. Have partly to mostly sunny skies Wed with more
stratocumulus clouds from I-74 ne, closer to upper level low. A weak
1021 mb surface high pressure ridge settles across east Texas by Wed
evening and ridges into IL. This will diminishing winds Wed night
with lows in the mid 20s, with ne CWA still see more cloud cover.

Deepening/very strong upper level low moves off the New England
Coast Wed night and lifts up into the eastern Canadian Maritimes on
Thu with IL in a quiet nw upper level flow. Surface high pressure
ridge shifts east of IL on Thu with developing SSW winds along with
mostly sunny skies starting a warmup. Highs Thu range from mid 40s
by Danville, to the mid 50s from Jacksonville SW. Lows Thu nigh in
the lower 30s from I-74 ne and upper 30s sw of Springfield.

00Z forecast models continue to build a strong upper level ridge
east into the MS river valley by sunset Friday with plenty of
sunshine and mild spring like temperatures. Highs Friday range from
mid 50s by Danville to mid 60s from Jacksonville SW toward MO. Sat
looks a bit warmer with highs in the low to mid 60s and could be
approaching record highs. A weak upper level low ejects ne across AR
and the Ozarks Fri night and into the mid MS and western TN valley
Fri. This feature could increase clouds Sat especially over
southeast IL. Small chances of showers appears to stay south of I-64
this weekend. Upper level ridge strengthens again over IL on
Sunday with more sunshine possible and highs in the 60s. Record
highs Sunday are higher than Sat, in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
so may be shy of these values.

Strong upper level ridge shifts east over the Ohio river valley on
Monday while low pressure ejects ne from the central Rockies into
the northern Plains. Models continue slower trend with its cold
front in the central Plains Monday and keeping brunt of its qpf west
of IL on Monday, with mild springlike highs in the low to mid 60s.
Frontal boundary likely brings showers eastward Monday night and
continues high chances of showers on Tue. More clouds and showers
around on Tue bring a bit cooler highs of 55-60F in central IL and
lower 60s in southeast IL, but these values are still well above

CPC`s 8-14 day outlook for last week of Feb from 21-27th has 70%
chance of above normal temperatures and a 45% chance of above normal


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
to broken cirrus will cover all of central and eastern IL today
and not really diminish until late this afternoon/early this
evening. PIA and BMI will see fewer clouds while SPI/DEC/CMI will
see more, until the clouds/weather system pushes east/southeast.
With cyclonic flow over the area tonight, cyclonic clouds should
develop northwest of the state and then spread into the area,
possibly covering the TAFs later this evening and into the
overnight hours. Models differ on the amount of moisture and on
the possible height of the clouds. So, will have scattered lower
clouds moving over the sites around midnight at 1.5kft. Later
forecast shifts may make these clouds broken...resulting in a MVFR
cig, but confidence not quite high enough for me to bring that in.
A trough is rotating through the area this morning and surface obs
indicated it has already passed PIA and will quickly pass BMI and
SPI. So will have westerly winds this morning, less then 10kts.
Then with additional sunshine/mixing, slightly higher winds will
be seen this afternoon with gusts around 20kts at all sites. Will
loose the gusts this evening, but northwest winds will be the rule
from this afternoon through tonight.




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