Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 131921
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
221 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

By mid-afternoon, MSAS surface analysis shows high center over
extreme southeast IA/northeast MO. Models continue to drift the
center slowly east tonight over forecast area. As a result, clear
skies and very light winds will allow temperatures to fall
overnight. Dropped current low temp grids a degree or two. Surface
dew points will change little with low level moisture trapped below
inversion. Though moisture is shallow, still should be enough for
patchy fog development over many sections of region so added that to
grids for few hours around sunrise on Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Surface high pressure will begin to slide east of IL on Sunday,
allowing a southerly flow to develop across IL. Coupling that with
another day of full sun should help provide a brief warm-up, as
highs climb into the upper 60s. Lows Sunday night will likely be
8-10F warmer than tonight as well.

An upper level disturbance will eject from the central Plains across
Nebraska Sun night, reaching Illinois on Monday. Showers will become
likely W of I-55 in the morning, with rain expanding toward the I-72
corridor in the afternoon. The progressive nature of the system
should allow the rain to come to an end by Monday evening west of
I-55, and by midnight in the remainder of eastern IL. High temps
will struggle to climb into the 60s on Monday with the cloud cover
and rain, so went below guidance numbers at least NW of I-72.

Starting on Tuesday, the upper trough over the eastern CONUS will
gradually shift eastward as an upper level ridge builds toward
Illinois. So after another chilly night Monday night with low 40s in
the north, we expect moderating temperatures the remainder of the
week. Northwest flow aloft during that time could send a few weak
shortwaves across IL, but dry high pressure entrenched across the
Great Lakes and extending over toward southern IL should keep our
rain chances at a minimum. The next chance of rain looks to hold off
until later next weekend. The warming trend will help our high temps
reach the mid 70s on Friday and upper 70s on Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

With the high pressure center just to the west, low level flow
from the north will keep sct CU flowing over the region today.
Expect CU to dissipate by early evening. Forecast soundings show
dry air over area Sunday morning in all be the lowest boundary
layer. With significant inversion, still some moisture trapped and
so still expect with nearly calm winds and clear skies, patchy
fog/some stratus to again develop toward sunrise. Expect that it
will be patchy and very shallow and so went with tempo group and 2
mile vis with sct status deck. Will need to watch this overnight
for development.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...GOETSCH





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