000
FXUS63 KILX 111800
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

Forecast looks on track today and only removed sprinkles and light qpf
over southeast IL this morning, with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Ample sunshine over central IL today with some thin cirrus clouds
and more prevelant over southern counties. A beautiful spring day
with highs in the mid to upper 60s with light winds compliments of
weak 1019 mb high pressure over IL today and cold front near the
Ohio river pushing into nw KY. Temps already in the mid 50s to
lower 60s with coolest readings over east central IL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue across the central IL airports
through 18Z/1 pm Saturday. Scattered cirrus clouds this afternoon
and then scattered-broken mid/high clouds increase during tonight.
4-6k ft broken clouds to lift ne toward SPI around 12Z/Sat and I-74
TAF sites around 15Z/Sat. NAM brings in MVFR celings around 2.5k ft
during Saturday morning but feel this is too low considering the
dry low levels in place initially over central IL. NW winds less than
10 kts to become sw during the afternoon and south tonight as weak
high pressure over IL drifts toward the mid Atlantic states. South
winds to increase to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts after
15Z/Sat. 1002 mb low pressure to move into the Midwest Sat with
increasing pressure gradient over central IL and increasing the
southerly winds.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

Weak radar echoes this morning over the east central portion of
the state. High pressure building into the region as a front
continues to drift south of the CWA. Zonal flow across the state
aloft with some weak ridging out the west. Current weather map
somewhat diffuse...northerly winds as high pressure dominates
briefly. Forecast revolves around temperatures for today and
tomorrow with a brief warmup. However the latter half of the
weekend and into the work week will be dominated by gray and wet
conditions as more precip returns to the area. After the rain
clears the region... cold air moves back in. Models in agreement
this morning with much of the forecast.

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Weak wave rippling through the region still popping up some weak
showers. Not expecting more than sprinkles out of that activity
this morning and have removed the low pops. Slightly cooler than
yesterday with highs in the 60s as another slow warming trend
begins for the Midwest. Weak winds today pick up a southerly
component in the overnight hours as the ridge axis slides to the
east. WAA kicks in as well as plenty of warm air in the mid
levels...bringing tomorrows highs up into the mid 70s with partly
cloudy skies. Another warm day with breezy southerly winds.
Tomorrow night, however, will see an end to the mild weather as
another system develops as a wave digs in over the Pac NW coast.
QPF fields being a bit indecisive as to onset...though pretty
consistent with formation of a warm frontal feature north of the
CWA. Warm and rainy through Sunday... particularly in the
NW...spreading SE with the day.  Cold front passage for Sunday
night in the overnight hours.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
Precip ending in the southeast on Monday morning as cold air moves
back into the FA. Temps dropping to at or below freezing for Mon
night with the clearing skies...and again for Tuesday night. Other
than that...extended mostly quiet and cool with more high
pressure. Next system for Thursday night poised to make another
rainy start to next weekend...showing some discrepancies with GFS
and ECMWF as far as timing and depth of wave. Both showing a bit
of negative tilt aloft though and will have to watch this
particular system for some dynamic shifts.

HJS


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$