000
FXUS63 KILX 261141
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg CAPE
as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and climbing
temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts northward. Warm
front expected to be northeast and east by midday as the cold
front and actual low center makes its way into the region. As
similar situations have set up over the fa recently, trouble will
be fighting the cap in place for much of the day... and the
approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only the front
itself but models have persisted with a couple waves moving into
the region. Major issues with this are beginning to show their
hand this morning as the locations of the waves this morning on
sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations as many of
the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for storms, and the
triggers are there, but timing and exact locations of impact are
troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the early evening
with the proximity of the cold front and the low itself...but
cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its location should
it not progress further north, storms crossing the boundary could
also be impacted by the turning of the winds for the front. Once
the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are indicative of rapid
development of storms. Once going, the very high CAPE values
remain in place well into the evening up to 06z. Best directional
shear is actually in place for the late afternoon/early evening
lending itself to supercells in the beginning of the
event...transitioning to more of a wind event with time. Large
hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells and long
sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than 15k ft.
Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof both
outflows and frontal boundaries.

LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 604 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Sky cover mainly sct-bkn080-100 across central and southeast IL
with isold tsra and associated MVFR ceilings mainly K1H2-KCMI
eastward to the IL/IN border. With warm frontal zone over the
region expected to move slowly northeastward...some clearing is
possible through early afternoon...then a cold front moving in
from the northwest in the late afternoon will bring
intensification of thunderstorm activity through evening.
Expecting SCT-NMRS TSRA for at least a period this evening.
Continuing TEMPO groups for TSRA and associated MVFR cigs/vsby targeted
at most likely time for thunderstorms at TAF sites in the 12Z
TAFS, and continuing VRB strong wind group consistent with the
main threat of thunderstorms. Will also keep VCTS in TAFs for much
of the forecast period, due to some uncertainty of timing. Winds
mainly S10-12 kts becoming lighter by evening as surface low
pressure center moves close by the area.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$