Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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520
FXUS63 KILX 232006
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Showers continuing to push eastward across the forecast area this
afternoon, but have struggled to make much headway from about Peoria-
Paris where dew points remain largely in the mid-upper 20s. The
clouds and rain have been keeping temperatures down, and were still
only around 40 degrees from about Rushville to Taylorville. However,
the back edge of the cloud shield has entered far western Illinois,
and some late afternoon clearing across the western CWA should help
get temperatures to rise some before sunset.

Significant warm air advection to take place tonight as a strong low
level jet ramps up (southwest winds around 60 knots at 925 mb). Low
temperatures will be early in the evening and temps will slowly rise
through the night, with many areas in the mid 50s by sunrise. Still
looking like much of the area should reach the 70-75 degree range
Friday with the highest values along the Illinois River valley.
Precipitation-wise, high-resolution models are in good agreement
with a narrow line of showers and storms forming across eastern Iowa
into central Missouri early Friday afternoon, with the bulk of this
arriving in our area during the evening. Have slowed PoP`s a bit and
focused them along and west of the Illinois River late in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Major trough seen in the moisture channel satellite imagery in the
southern rockies with upper ridge building over MS valley region.
Warm frontal pcpn has been trend through day today, but dry air in
the low levels has limited the extend of pcpn amounts.

Operational models are pretty close in agreement on the slow
movement of the vertically stacked upper low through the central US
into the weekend. Showers to move into region ahead of the close
upper low on Fri night, with scattered thunder possible Fri night.
lakc of instability will keep potential for severe low ahead of the
track of the upper low, so CWA will be in mainly periods of showers
on Sat into early Sun, with scattered lightning and tstms possible.
Showers slowly move out Sun.

Second shortwave to come out of trough into midwest for Monday,
spreading showers with it, with tstms mainly over the southern half.

12z EUR and Can a little faster on the movement of the 3rd system,
bringing showers into area again on late Wed night and on Thu. Will
have to watch the timing on this, far out in the future system.
Still looks weak though at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Main forecast issue during this period will be with the winds.
Strong low level jet will be setting up this evening, with
southwest winds increasing to around 60 knots a few thousand feet
off the ground. Have maintained the mention of LLWS at all sites,
with greatest impact near KSPI/KBMI westward. Some of this higher
wind will begin mixing down Friday morning as the strong warm air
advection continues, with gusts increasing to around 25 knots.

Have seen some brief MVFR/IFR conditions in the heavier showers
this morning, but general trend through about 12Z will remain with
mid and higher level clouds. However, models are suggesting a
surge of MVFR ceilings out of southern Illinois Friday morning.
Most likely impacts would be around KDEC/KCMI toward mid-late
morning and have included ceilings around 2500 feet in these areas
late in the period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Geelhart



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