Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 161947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

ISSUED 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
High pressure dominating the eastern half of the country from the
Mississippi River Valley eastward. Low pressure developing over
the Plains expected to move into the Midwest this evening bringing
a cold front in its wake. Relatively dry atmosphere in place will
limit the rain chances at this point...but a wave rippling along
this boundary will be the next problem in the forecast. The next
system in the forecast will bring pops for the end of the weekend
and into the next work week. Models having some consistency for
the early system...but having some major timing issues for the
weekend precip. For now, forecast remains more of a blend of the
ECMWF and the NAM, while ignoring the far more aggressive GFS in
both cases.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...
Prolonged southerly flow over the region today has pushed warmer
temps into the FA this afternoon. This continues through the
overnight, resulting in a far warmer morning as lows tonight drop
to the upper 30s and lower 40s. Some clouds anticipated as a weak
boundary moves into the region tomorrow...somewhat tempering the
climb...warmer conditions with highs from the upper 50s to lower
60s. Agree with previous forecast that the dry atmosphere will be
hard pressed to produce rainfall tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave
ripples along the slowing boundary in Central Illinois. Once the
system has a chance to saturate, the pops go up for the overnight
Thursday night through to Friday morning, wrapping up by midday.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
A general warming trend kicks in on Saturday as the warm
temperatures that were building under a midlevel ridge over the
west starts to shift eastward. Next chance for precip approaching
Sat night with two waves, one in the northern stream across
southern Canada... and the southern one a broader open wave over
the southern Plains. Between the two, a rather diffuse and
widespread area of rain for Sunday into Monday. GFS is far more
aggressive with the onset...and lingering the precip. Whereas even
the GFS was previously showing a dry Easter is
showing issues with run to run consistency. Have eliminated the
differentiation btwn Sun morning and evening for now. But the
best chances for precip will be later that night and into Monday.
On the other side of the precip, a warming trend continues for the
region with milder and drier weather. Max temps reaching into the
70s by Tuesday.


ISSUED 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

pressure gradient between 1032 MB high over the eastern Great
Lakes and a slowly filling Great Plains low is producing winds
gusts around 30 kts at terminals at midday. Gust should diminish
slowly this afternoon as high moves further east and the low
continues to fill. Winds should diminish even more quickly around
00z. A weak pre-frontal trough associated with the low is expected
to move into Illinois Thursday afternoon and produce a wind shift
to the northwest.

An increase in clouds and the development of CIGs is likely
late tonight and Thursday as a series of fast-moving northern
stream waves move across the Midwest. low-level moisture is
lacking and any CIGs are expected to remain IFR.



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