Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 151551
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1051 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Updated forecast today for slower clearing of low clouds and a bit
stronger winds. Strong cold front had recently passed southeast of
Lawrence county and currently extended from 998 mb low pressure
along the Quebec and Ontario province line, to the southeast side
of Indianapolis and approaching Evansville and Paducah. Band of
light to moderate rain showers were se of a Danville to Effingham
line at 1030 am and will exit se of Lawrence county around noon.
An extensive area of MVFR clouds covered IL and into central and
eastern parts of MO/IA and over much of WI. Latest models have
been slower with clearing these low clouds later this afternoon
and early evening. Though expect more breaks to appear in the
overcast during late morning and early afternoon. Strong WNW
winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph was ushering in much cooler
air today. Temps at 1030 am range from 49F at Galesburg to 64F at
the Mount Carmel airport. Not much temp rise today with strong
WNW winds and low clouds being slower to clear out. Highs this
afternoon range from mid 50s over the IL river valley, to mid 60s
by Lawrenceville.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper air and moisture channel data shows main upper short wave
over southern Mn to western IA. Ahead of system, frontal
convection extends southwest from northeast to southwest IL.
Instability has decreased over past 3-4 hours and so showers and
isolated storms all that remain. Front will continue to track to
the east, much as the short range models indicate, finally
clearing central IL by mid morning.

Colder air filtering in today behind front with plenty of moisture
and clouds seen in IR imagery. This will keep temps cool today.
Clearing by evening will allow temps to fall into the 30s over
northwest parts of CWA, so will continue mention of patchy frost
in the northwest CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

For all of the week, high pressure will keep conditions dry.
Finally a system approaches for Saturday. However, models are not
in agreement at all on the timing and strength of system. After
coordination, will keep forecast dry for start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Radar and surface observations show cold front on DEC and
continuing east. Will reach CMI TAF site by 12z. Will start TAF
with northwest winds. Trends have been for brief IFR conditions
behind front in showers, then cigs improving to MVFR around 1500.
This should be trend for TAF sites through morning. Improvement
expected around noon and then scattering out by evening. Strong
northwest winds and gusty through day today.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch



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