Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230447
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Another quiet and unseasonably mild night is on tap across central
and southeast Illinois. The spotty showers/storms in east-
central/southeast IL have faded with the loss of diurnal heating,
although some remnant cloud cover persists. Going forecast in good
shape overall, with only minor tweaks needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017
Forecast remains mostly the same through the weekend, with hot and
muggy conditions anticipated for most of the Midwest. Cu field
over much of southern IL and IN this afternoon resulting in an
isolated showers or two, mainly east of the IL/IN border. Cu
should diminish around sunset and little more than cirrus will be
an issue tonight. Hot temperatures today and drier air aloft mixed
out some of the dwpts at the surface quite effectively, into the
lower 60s...including CMI. However, models have held on to the
potential for patchy fog in the east towards dawn where the winds
may be a little lighter for lack of significant pressure gradient
closer to the ridge. Without more significant moisture advection
and/or shower activity, any fog will be hard pressed to be any
more than patchy. Overnight, warm lows to the upper 60s/low 70s.
Tomorrow is much of the same with a more expansive cu field
potential for the afternoon. Mid level temps drop about a degree,
and with more cu involved, the high temps tomorrow will be shy of
todays...but still hot. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s/near
100F.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Hot and muggy weather expected through the weekend with daytime
max temps reaching into the 90s, and heat indices
approaching/around 100F. See climate section below for previous
records going into the weekend. The extended forecast remains
largely influenced by getting caught in between Hurricane Maria
off the Atlantic Coast and a deepening trough over the western
half of the country. With this run, the deep trof becomes more
amplified as the ridge over the east is slower to erode. The
second wave/northern pass of energy moves across southern Canada,
bringing slightly cooler air behind a weak cold front midweek.
Frontal passage has sped up considerably, bringing the chances for
precip through on Tuesday afternoon and overnight, leaving
Wednesday dry for Central IL. Either way, not a substantial amount
of precip anticipated. Central IL then comes under the influence
of the deep SSWrly flow around the western trough as it spreads
eastward and the ridge breaks down. Overall, the forecast moving
into the workweek is strongly influenced by the projected strength
of Maria and the amplification of the western trough. Timing of
precip Tue/Wed will remain variable and somewhat suspect through
the weekend. Seasonably warm temperatures wrap up the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the 06Z TAF valid time. Minimal cloud cover is anticipated
and winds will remain light.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Record highs through the weekend:

Location         Fri       Sat       Sun
--------       -------   -------   -------
Bloomington    94/1930   92/1937   94/1933
Champaign      95/1891   94/1891   94/1891
Charleston     95/2005   93/2010   93/1933
Decatur        94/2005   92/2007   93/1933
Galesburg      92/1988   89/1937   90/2007
Olney          96/2010   94/1960   94/2010
Peoria         93/1930   92/1937   92/2007
Springfield    95/2005   93/2007   93/2007

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
CLIMATE...Geelhart


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