000
FXUS63 KILX 040527
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1127 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

The large fair weather system that brought the record cold
temperatures to central Illinois was shifting off to our east
this evening. The high was still close enough to the area to allow
early evening temperatures to fall off rather quickly, but we
should see the rate of fall slow down some later this evening as
surface winds turn more into the southeast and cloud cover
increases from the west. The clouds were associated with a fast
moving upper wave over the Northern Plains which was bringing some
light snow to parts of northern Iowa this evening. Most of the
high resolution models continue to keep the snow just to our north
overnight. Current satellite trends and surface observations to
our west continue to support this idea with most of the snow being
reported across Iowa was occurring north of I-80. Have made some
adjustments to the overnight cloud cover and temps, especially
across the north. We should have the updted zones out by 900 pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1125 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Fast moving
upper wave across NW Iowa late this evening has produced a band of
snow which was tracking across the northern half of Iowa, roughly
just north of I80. We expect the snow to remain to the north of our
area overnight, with mainly mid and high level clouds affecting the
TAF sites into Tuesday morning, with some sct-bkn cirrus for the
remainder of the day. Surface winds will be light east to southeast
tonight, with winds veering into the south on Tuesday with speeds
of 7 to 12 kts.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
High pressure ridge over the country this afternoon from the Great
Lakes down into the southern plains as the storm from the weekend
continues to develop and move to the east coast. Short wave moving
on shore in the Pacific NW to be the next impact to the Midwest,
but for now, tomorrow nights precip should be well north of ILX.
Next concern for Central Illinois will be Wednesday as the models
are coming into better agreement with that system. Still some
details to work out, but warrants a mention at this point. Several
pattern shifts in the works, with a somewhat complicated forecast
going into the weekend as the GFS and ECMWF start to meld.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...
Another cold night under the surface ridge, though not as cold as
last night with overnight lows expected to stay above zero, thanks
to some clouds/moisture making its way into the Midwest on WV sat
imagery. Same clouds associated with a wave expected to bring some
precip to the northern portion of the state. Tomorrow will be
slightly warmer than today, with very weak WAA at the surface with
a small southerly component to the wind directions. Flow aloft
becomes almost zonal, ushering a series of small waves across the
CONUS. Most significant wave starting to look like another impulse
riding on a developing weak boundary for Wednesday. ECMWF is still
a bit weaker, but the NAM and the GFS are in agreement down to
position and timing. As a result, have upped the PoPs for
Wednesday and some remnant precip for Wed night. For now, have
gone relatively conservative with generally less than an inch or so
of snow. Hesitate to go any more prolific on only one model run at
this point.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday continues the warm up across the region, finally seeing
the max temps towards the freezing point along I-74...and 40s to
the south. Friday one of the warmest days in the forecast as a
building ridge of warm air over the western half of the country
starts to build into the mid levels over the Midwest. Short lived
as another series of waves starts to threaten the weekend. Front
timing for Saturday morning starting to show continuity between
the ECMWF and GFS. Previous runs had two waves in one, one in the
other model...resulting in extended low pops from Fri night to Sat
night. Now, with the consolidation, seems a better bet for
approach in the northwest Fri night...Saturday seeing the bulk of
the precip... and exit to the SE Saturday night. Unfortunately,
that front will temporarily pause our warm up with 30s/40s on Sat and
Sun.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$