000
FXUS63 KILX 241046
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
546 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
The forecast is pretty quiet for this round. Mild through the
weekend, and precip chances holding off for Central Illinois until
later in the week.

The cold front that has left far milder air behind here in the
Midwest has progressed to roughly the Appalachians this morning.
High pressure is trying to build into the region...with the ridge
oriented more NW/SE over the Plains. As a result...winds on this
side of the developing ridge are more northwesterly and will
continue that way through today...becoming more westerly later
tonight as the winds decouple. Not too far off the sfc, the winds
pick up a few knots...so including gusts near 20 kts for this
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Cooler through the rest of the weekend...and dry. A quick wave
rippling into the region later on Monday. Previous runs and to an
extent the most recent ECMWF keeping precip to the north...but
the GFS has come in a little more aggressive and widespread with
slight chances in the forecast for Monday afternoon/night.
Forecast slowly warms a couple degrees each day, however, late
Tuesday, as the wave aloft passes through the Great Lakes, the
northwesterly flow aloft breaks down as the 850mb thermal ridge
shifts to the east...opening up the region to the deep warm air
over the desert SW. 850 mb temps warm from 8-10C on Tuesday
night...to 17-18C by Wednesday evening. Temperatures at the
surface climb a good 7 to 9F on Wednesday and stay warm through
the end of the week. Flow aloft starts to look more zonal again,
and temps and RH continue to increase through the end of the week
in a more southerly flow regime. Timing and depth of wave that
brings pops back into the forecast for the end of the week and
into next weekend is very low confidence at this point and the
forecast is dominated by rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Not much of a change in the TAFs this morning. Mostly sunny and
gusty with VFR throughout the forecast. Overnight winds in a few
models show a little more backing to SW btwn 05-08Z...but some
models not as pronounced nor does it last too long. For now, have
left it out. Will see what subsequent runs make of it. West/northwest
winds and VFR with cirrus. Gusts to 20kts or so during the
afternoon/early evening.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS