Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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852
FXUS63 KILX 221730
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure ridge moving across the Miss River Valley this
morning. Sunny skies and warming temperatures expected to continue
with light winds. No updates are anticipated other than minor
adjustments to the hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure currently centered near the IA/MO border will shift
across IL this afternoon providing clear skies, light northerly
winds becoming light and variable, and a warming air mass. Highs
expected to reach at least 80 across central and SE Illinois, with
perhaps a few mid 80s over west-central IL. Dewpoints only in the
upper 40s will keep the air feeling relatively dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Cutoff low expected to form over the mid-Atlantic region tonight,
and this will slow the eastward progression of the upper ridge that
is currently over the Plains. Net result will be a bit of a delay in
the incoming showers and thunderstorms, and have mainly limited them
Monday night to areas along and west of the Illinois River after
midnight. By Tuesday, the ridge is expected to break down, allowing
for periodic impulses to track out of the southwest U.S. the
remainder of the week. No real clear-cut time frame where one period
looks drier than another, so PoP`s will generally be in the 40-50%
range with some more favored periods where likely PoP`s around 60%
appear justified.

High temperatures in the lower 80s are expected most of the week.
However, drier air will continue through Monday as the Gulf remains
cut off, so conditions should still be fairly pleasant. After that,
a steady southerly flow will pump the moisture up into the Midwest,
and dew points by Wednesday will be rather uncomfortable,
approaching the 70 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR through the forecast period at ILX terminals. High pressure
ridge, mostly sunny/clear and light and variable winds for today
and into the overnight hours. By morning...winds coming around to
more SSE and starting to get into the 7-10kt range.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS



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