Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 310443
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

8PM SURFACE MAP INDICATES LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF LAWRENCEVILLE
TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW...MUCH COLDER AIR WAS FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING THANKS TO SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE LOW NORTH INTO
ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTH
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAINING. THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS TODAY WERE EAST OF I-55 WITH ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY
2 INCHES REPORTED.

WE EXPECT THE RAIN THREAT TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVER
THE WEST. A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS NORTH THRU
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL BE WITH US THRU A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
SUNDAY ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. MAKING SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TRENDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST. WILL HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY 845 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL FROM
AROUND TAYLORVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS CAUSED
NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS A RESULT OF
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UP
TO AROUND 30 KTS.  LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO INDIANA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE STATE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
FROM AROUND TAYLORVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CIRCULATION EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA...SHRINKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS AREA AS
NUMEROUS REPORTS AROUND 1 INCH OR GREATER HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF I-57 AT THIS POINT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AROUND 45-50 EXPECTED
I-72 NORTH...AND 50S TO THE SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY WRAP AROUND TO
LOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE MORNING
SUNDAY AS SHOWERS WRAP AROUND A SURFACE LOW DEPARTING TO THE EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE.
AFTERWARD...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND A TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S SPRINGFIELD-PARIS
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS MID 60S SUNDAY.

THE MAIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INITIATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 ON MONDAY REACHING THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
FRIDAY-SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATE
WEEK/SATURDAY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BREAK IN THE IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO SOME LOW VFR CIGS PUSHING SOUTH
TOWARDS PIA. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IF THIS DOES
GET INTO PIA...IT WON`T LAST VERY LONG AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WRAPPING ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THRU
MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF
BREAK TO LOW VFR CIGS AT PIA BUT WON`T EXPAND THAT FURTHER ACROSS
THE TAF FORECAST AREA...KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY NEW DATA
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...IF THEN...OVER IN PIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THRU THE NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS. LOOK FOR SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DIMINISHING WINDS
TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.