Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 182106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Blustery evening in the wake of todays precipitation. Strong winds
just off the surface and the pressure gradient behind the cold
front are both contributing to winds out of the NW sustained in
excess of 20 mph, gusting 30 to 40mph. Holding on to the advisory
through the evening hours as some gusts are still kicking up to
over 40mph in the advisory area. Some lingering rain/snow showers
moving into eastern IL should be over shortly after sunset.
Colder air moving into the region will drop quickly before
midnight. Although the ground is warm, some elevated
surfaces/bridges with residual water left from today may get
slick once temps drop below freezing. Temperatures are expected
to drop into the 20s by early morning. Tomorrow, expecting plenty
of sun as high pressure starts to build back into the region.
However, temperatures will only climb into the mid to upper 30s
with winds becoming more westerly by sunset.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Temps drop into the 20s again on Sun night, though a couple
degrees warmer than tonight as winds come around to the
south/southwest. Temps begin to warm briefly for Monday with
southerly flow as midlevel ridge shifts into the Mississippi River
Valley. Quasi zonal flow starts to shift to a more amplified
pattern as the next system moves into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes for Tuesday. Cold front remains dry for now, but the last
run has broken off a large piece of the energy, dropping a closed
upper low into the southeastern CONUS. Watching Tues
night/Wednesday for changes in the forecast potential for
showers in the Midwest between the two waves. Not enough
support/moisture in the models just yet. Lows dropping into the
20s Tues night and Wed night in response to the airmass shift.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Active weather situation across Central IL with precip continuing
behind the cold front, now through ILX terminals. Other than rain
showers, and some flakes of snow possibly mixed in briefly this
afternoon for PIA and BMI...major aviation concern is the wind.
Strong winds out of the NW, gusting at the surface to 35-40kts
behind the front. Models improve ceilings in the evening hours to
VFR after 00z, going to go with that trend although the dry air is
well back to the NW, based on the speed of the wave aloft in
general. Gusty NW winds will continue into the early evening
hours, gusting to 20-25kts well after midnight.


Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ040>057-061>063-



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