000
FXUS63 KILX 231741
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Although high pressure is dominating the region this morning, a
brief upper disturbance has produced some rain west of the
Mississippi River Valley. ILX 12z sounding...as well as DVNs
sounding has a lot of dry air below 700mb for the rainfall to work
through before any impact to the ILX area. Most 12z runs of
operational models still very dry... but not picking up on current
activity either. RAPP/RUC reflecting current conditions and
bringing in some version of precip for the afternoon as the rain
to the west drifts and erodes. Considering the amount of dry air
is in place...not a lot of confidence in widespread rainfall...but
will adjust the forecast for some sct sprinkles this evening.
Will continue to monitor...but quick update out momentarily.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Dry air in place expected to keep the precip out to the west from
working into the TAF sites more than possibly a sprinkle this
afternoon, so keeping from mention at this point. However...will
drop from 10kft cigs to 5kft cigs with the moisture advection
overall by later this evening. VFR through the fcst, but the next problem
is expected tomorrow morning as the wave pushes some precip
towards the FA. Much of the precip is expected to hold off until
mid morning in the west...and a bit later in the east...but models
are not consistent with timing or coverage early. Mentioning VCSH
for the morning to start the trend...and next issuance will likely
see more of a mention and contemplate the timing/potential for thunder.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday

Will carry patchy frost over ne counties early this morning as
temps have cooled to 33F at Lacon and Bloomington while Danville
down to 34F. Temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s over rest of
central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL with Mount Carmel airport
at 50F. Band of cirrus clouds spreading se into central IL early
this morning should limit further cooling and think ne counties
will stay above freezing. Cool temps due to 1022 mb high pressure
over WI and ridging southward across IL.

High pressure ridge shifts east of IL today while warm air
advection regime sets up over IL through Thu morning with
increasing mid/high clouds. Isolated convection appears to stay north
and west of central IL today and most of tonight and just have
slight chances of showers over IL river valley overnight. Highs in
the low to mid 60s again today with coolest readings from I-74 ne.
Low tonight in the mid to upper 40s.

Strong storm system over the central Rockies to eject surface low
pressure from CO ne into WI Thu evening and pull a cold front east
across IL later Thu afternoon and evening. A band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms likely along and ahead of cold front Thu
afternoon and in eastern IL Thu evening. SPC has 5% risk of severe
storms in far southeast IL while slight risk is south of IL where
better instability present. Highs Thu range from mid 60s to lower
70s with coolest readings nw over IL river valley.

Mild Pacific air over central and southeast IL with highs in the
low to mid 70s and return of more sunshine. A 2nd cold front drops
se across the region Fri night and could bring a few light rain
showers to mainly ne areas along with cooler temps across the
region by Sat. Highs Sat range from lower 60s from I-74 ne to the
upper 60s to around 70F in southeast IL. Dry conditions expected
to prevail from after midnight Thu night through Saturday with
next chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returning
during Saturday night and Sunday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Extended models continue to advertise a blocky upper level pattern
across the country as a strong/large cutoff upper level low
deepens over the central plains by Sunday and slowly shifts east into
the mid MS river valley by Tue and remains near IL into the middle
of next week. Rather cloudy and unsettled weather pattern to occur
from Sun-Wed as temperatures gradually cool each day as upper
level low settles into the region. Have daily chances of showers
and isolated thunderstorms with best chances from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Large upper level trof/cutoff low will be slow to exit
the eastern states later next week, so temps will also be slow to
modify over IL.

07


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$