000
FXUS63 KILX 160250
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
950 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Quiet weather is expected for the most part across central and
southeast Illinois overnight. Some patchy fog is expected, but
should not get terribly thick. Most of the model guidance has
backed off on the rain chances for the rest of the night, despite
the slow arrival of a warm front from the southwest. Only minor
tweaks are needed to current forecast, mainly to go dry for the
rest of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Weak surface ridge stretched from the Hudson Bay southward
through the Mississippi River Valley to the Gulf Coast. A slow
moving frontal boundary draped across the northern tier of
Illinois helping to provide very weak focus for some afternoon
cumulus growth, resulting in a couple showers. HRRR for the last
few runs seems to have a good handle on the showers, but has
become more diffuse with time across Central IL. Forecast
adjustments to allow for scattered activity and keeping it into
the early evening hours. Overnight, skies become partly cloudy and
once again a little warmer than the night before. For tomorrow,
increasing clouds with a warm air advection pattern as moisture
surges into the region and showers/thunderstorms start spreading
in coverage, limiting the daytime heating.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Precip continues into Thursday with the best chances for precip in
the forecast Wed night as the storm system/front moves through the
region. Extensive cloud cover Wed night keeps the overnight lows
up...and limits the morning warm up for Thursday. Models at this
point are in surprisingly good agreement to wrap up the week and
into the weekend. Precip a little slow to diminish through
Thursday night/Friday morning. But Friday will be dry with a
return to the mid 80s, with light northwesterly winds and weak
high pressure. Both GFS and ECMWF have next wave moving through
the Northern Plains bringing in precip for Saturday and Sat
evening. However, rather progressive flow aloft will likely usher
the system out quickly and wrap up the weekend dry. As for Monday,
right now, both the GFS and ECMWF are producing a weak wave, but
keeping it northwest of ILX through the daylight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. A
spotty shower is possible for the next hour or two, most likely at
KBMI, but will have little impact on flight condtions. Also, some
patchy fog is possible later tonight, most likely at KCMI. The fog
may briefly reduce the visibility to MVFR levels. Scattered
showers/storms are possible Wednesday, mainly during the
afternoon, as a disturbance approaches the area. However,
confidence in coverage/timing is too low to include in the
terminals at this time.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak