Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 271529
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Breezy and very warm conditions prevail across central Illinois
this morning. Warm frontal boundary that passed through the area
earlier this morning is now well to the north across the southern
Great Lakes. Gusty southerly winds have developed in the wake of
the front, with 15z/10am surface obs showing gusts to between 20
and 25mph. As the nocturnal inversion dissipates, higher momentum
air will continue to mix down to the surface, resulting in wind
gusts up to 30mph at times. Mid/high clouds will stream across the
area today: however, lower/thicker clouds will hold off until late
afternoon into the evening. Due to strong southerly winds and a
good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will soar well into the
70s, with some locations topping the 80 degree mark. HRRR/NAM both
suggest isolated showers/thunder west of the I-55 corridor by mid
to late afternoon, so have maintained slight chance PoPs across
the western KILX CWA late in the day. Better rain chances will
develop tonight as airmass moistens further and cold front arrives
from the west. Current forecast is in good shape, so no major
updates are needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

An unseasonably warm day with highs near 80F expected over central
and southeast IL today. This due to 850 mb temps of 16-18C plus breezy
ssw winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph by afternoon
as 999 mb low pressure over sw KS ejects ne into western MO by
sunset today. Still about 5 degrees shy of record highs in the mid
80s today Oct 27. Partly to mostly sunny skies this morning (and
over southeast IL most of today), with skies becoming mostly
cloudy during the afternoon over central IL. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible nw of I-55 late this afternoon, but most of
central IL to stay dry through sunset today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Broad upper trough over the Rockies will dig east into the Midwest
overnight and into the Great Lakes region Tue. This will eject
surface low pressure ne from sw KS into northern lower MI/eastern
upper MI by sunrise Tue, dragging cold front ese across central IL
overnight and passing through the Wabash river valley in southeast
IL early Tue morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms to
become likely from wnw to ese during tonight, with southeast IL
likely not seeing the rain until late tonight and Tue morning.
Instability will be somewhat limited, with low CAPEs up to 400
J/kg although 0-6km bulk shear does reach 40-50 knots as the front
moves in, so will maintain a chance of thunder. SPCs 5% risk of
severe storms is over central OK this afternoon/evening and over
OH and eastern half of KY on Tue. The rain will end over eastern/se
IL by midday Tue with clouds decrease from west to east during
the day Tue. Mostly sunny skies expected over much of area Tue
afternoon.

1021 mb high pressure settles into IL by sunset Wed and ensures
dry and cooler weather during mid week. A weak short wave to clip
through IL Thu afternoon but appears too dry to support any rain
shower chances, perhaps some sprinkles. Much cooler air arrives
over IL behind this clipper Friday into this weekend with a
freeze looking more likely Friday night over central IL as
stronger Canadian high pressure 1034 mb noses down into WI/IL by
dawn Sat. Lows near freezing again possible Saturday night over
east central IL. High temperatures Fri-Sunday range from upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites this morning and into
the afternoon hours. High cirrus seen on satellite loop will
continue to effect the TAF sites this morning. Then mid clouds
will begin to advect into the area, but not until around 00z. Any
pcpn will off til 00z as well. This initial pcpn will just be
showers as the main front will still be back west of the state
early this evening. Cig heights will also be quite high. Later in
the evening, the pcpn will become more dominate, so have
predominate showers beginning at PIA around 03z, SPI at 05z, BMI
and DEC at 06z, and CMI at 07z. Have added a TEMPO group to cover
the thunderstorms when they move through, just ahead of the front.
Unsure of timing of thunderstorms, so the TEMPO group is 4hrs
long. The front should begin to move through at 09z and after,
with pcpn likely ending. Will have FROPA at only PIA/SPI/BMI.
FROPA at DEC and CMI will likely be at or just after 12z. Winds
will be southerly and windy, with gusts to 25kts or higher during
the day. Sites will loose the gusts around 00z, once the inversion
sets up. Did have LLWS in earlier TAFs, but ILX 12z UA is only
showing winds only up to 35kts. So will not have LLWS with new
TAFs.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten






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