Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 130000
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
700 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Upper low moving across the upper Midwest this afternoon and through
the overnights.  Same system keeping the area cloudy with cooler air
advecting in with northerly flow.  Rain showers to the NW expected
to continue to work into the CWA this afternoon and this evening.
Not anticipating thunder...and models are disintegrating the showers
slowly with eastward progression after midnight.  As a result, temps
drop only into the 40s...with slightly cooler temps possible in any
clearing spots in the clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A continuation of cool Canadian high pressure is expected on
Saturday after the shortwave, low clouds and light showers depart to
the east. Some early morning clouds on Saturday should clear out
quickly with mixing down of very dry air from the mid levels.

Despite the increase in sunshine, high temps on Saturday will remain
well below normal in the low to mid 60s. A very chilly night is
expected Sat night as clear skies and light winds prevail. Lows will
approach 40F in our traditional cool spots from Altona to Lacon.

Sunny skies and a return of southerly winds on Sunday should help
highs climb into the upper 60s. There is good agreement between
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/Canadian GEM for the next northern stream short-wave
early next week. All models show this feature starting to affect
western areas from Galesburg to Rushville late Sunday night. Better
chances for showers will come on Monday into Monday night as the
disturbance tracks across IL. Most areas should remain dry until at
least sunrise Monday morning, with high chance PoPs in the forecast
for Monday as stronger forcing and deeper moisture arrive. Showers
will end from west to east Monday evening, as clouds begin to clear
late Mon night. Cool and dry weather will return for Tue through
Thursday, but slightly warmer temperatures are expected. By Friday,
highs should climb back into the mid 70s across the board.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR ceilings are predominant from around KTAZ-KDEC-KCMI westward
through central Illinois...with ceilings generally just above MVFR
thresholds to the east. A band of scattered light showers
accompanies the lower ceilings to the west. This pattern will
shift eastward through the region for the next 6-8 hours with
ceilings generally falling to MVFR throughout central Illinois.
Showers will taper off from west to east across the state by about
9Z...however MVFR ceilings likely to linger through the night.
Visibility reduction is likely anywhere that gets temporary
clearing overnight given rich sfc RH...but will likely be very
patchy and confidence not high enough to warrant a mention in TAFs.
Late morning drier air aloft and surface heating should allow
cloud cover to become scattered around 2500 ft AGL through the
day. Winds generally N7-12 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...ONTON






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