Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 311744
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
Forecast looks on track today and just few minor adjustments to
some hourly weather elements like sky cover. Another nice summer
day in store for central IL as sunny skies this morning become
partly to mostly sunny by afternoon as scattered cumulus clouds
5-6k ft develop. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop
from Bloomington to Paris ne from mid afternoon into early evening.
This due to large upper level trof over the eastern states with
556 dm 500 mb low just sw of James Bay Canada. Most areas will
again be dry today with highs in the lower 80s, dewpoints in the
lower 60s and WSW winds less than 10 mph.
ISSUED 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
VFR conditions are expected to continue across the central IL
airports through 18Z/1 pm Fri. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-6k ft
could go broken at times this afternoon and then diminish after
sunset. Scattered cumulus clouds to redevelop again late Friday
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon
into early evening to be ne of I-74. Isolated convection to
develop further south over central IL Friday afternoon after 18Z.
Some light fog/haze is possible late tonight/early Friday morning
between 09Z-14Z with lowest vsybs of 4-6 miles possible. Winds
expected to stay below 10 kts next 24 hours with very weak
pressure gradient in place over central IL. WSW winds of 4-7 kts
this afternoon become light to calm after sunset tonight and SSW
near 5 kts after 15Z Fri.
ISSUED 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
Very little changing in this forecast. Deep low over southeastern
Canada keeping the eastern half of the country dominated by the
500mb trof. Northwesterly flow over the Plains and into the
Midwest. Ridging over the west building up some warm air that will
start to edge towards the region by the end of the forecast
period. Diurnal element to cloud cover and some shower activity
possible to the northeast today...and a series of waves diving
into and around the upper trof will bring better chances for
scattered showers/thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Watching
forecast soundings for tomorrows potential thunderstorms and
severe weather chances. Forecast drying out for the latter half of
the weekend and into Monday until another wave moves on the
western coast, kicking the eastern trof out of the stagnant
pattern. A more progressive series of waves begins to drive better
rain chances for the remainder of the forecast.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Mild again today with light winds, just below normal max temps.
Sunshine and afternoon clouds with some of the heavier clouds to
the northeast possibly providing a sparse shower. Tomorrow,
chances improve with a wave diving into the trof and enhancing the
afternoon instability. Wind profiles very weak, but lower freezing
level and pretty good lapse rates tomorrow afternoon could result
in some good updrafts should thunderstorms develop. SPC has put
the area in a see text for marginal hail threat with the daytime
heating/shortwave thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...
Models beginning to send another wave into the trof for Saturday,
with almost a repeat of Friday with similar forecast soundings.
Beginning to trend the forecast to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday as well should the signal continue.
Though the thunderstorm development will be countered by
increasing subsidence with ridge moving closer to the area. High
pressure dominating remains of weekend as the sfc ridge axis moves
into the region. Winds remain light and variable and dry forecast
as the upper trof finally starts to progress across into the NE.
Chances for more significant weather starting to return Tues/Wed
as a more active and progressive flow sets up across the country.