Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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109
FXUS63 KILX 230548
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

A low pressure system, centered over eastern TN and northern GA,
continues to track east this evening. We`re seeing some recent
radar returns across the southern/eastern portion of the forecast
area in the deformation zone northwest of the surface system.
However, no surface reports of rain have been seen in our area or
are expected. Mostly cloudy skies and drier northerly low level
winds tonight should keep dense fog threat lower tonight than the
past few nights. Going forecast is in pretty good shape and only
plan to tweak for latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Upper low continues to track east-southeast and had entered west
central Mississippi this afternoon, with the fringes of the
associated precipitation echoes down near the Ohio River. High-
resolution models don`t really bring it up this far north, either,
with the existing echoes mainly tracking westward. Will linger some
low PoP`s across the southeast CWA the remainder of the afternoon,
then drop them this evening.

Some thinner spots in the overcast are occurring over the southeast
half of the forecast area this afternoon, but should fill in again
this evening. Latest RAP/HRRR indicating some fog redevelopment in
these areas this evening, where dew points are currently higher in
the mid 40s to lower 50s, before shifting eastward overnight.

The upper low will lift northeast into the Carolinas by early Monday
morning, allowing a shortwave across the upper Mississippi Valley to
track across the state. Not really looking for much with this
feature, except to linger the clouds a bit longer, until a narrow
high pressure ridge builds east into the Mississippi Valley and
breaks the clouds up a bit in the afternoon. While temperatures on
Monday will still reach the mid 40s, northwest winds of 10-20 mph
will make it feel cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

An upper trough will track across the Great Basin, resulting in
surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies over eastern Colorado
Tuesday morning.  The low will then move northeastward into the
Great Lakes by Wednesday morning, with the 12z Jan 22 models all
showing a slightly more northerly track than previously indicated.
With the bulk of the precip remaining along and north of the low
track, have reduced PoPs across central Illinois during the Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame.  Will feature low chance PoPs for rain showers
across the northern half of the KILX CWA Tuesday night and
Wednesday, with areas along/south of I-70 remaining dry.
Temperatures will stay on the warm side, with highs well into the
40s and lower 50s on Tuesday cooling slightly into the lower to
middle 40s by Wednesday.

Once the low moves into the Great Lakes, both the GFS and ECMWF
suggest a trailing upper trough axis may bring a few rain and snow
showers to the area Wednesday night into early Thursday.  After
that, northerly flow will ensure a cool and dry period through early
next week...with near normal temperatures in the 30s Thursday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Aviation conditions across the central Illinois terminals will
gradually improve during the 06Z TAF valid time as high pressure
slowly builds into the area. However, there will still be an
extended period of IFR or low-end MVFR conditions to contend with
before improvement really takes hold late Monday. Spotty showers
are possible over the next few hours, but coverage/intensity is
likely to be too low to include in the terminals.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak



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