Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
547 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The late season heat wave will continue through Tuesday across
central and southeast IL, with temperatures reaching near record
highs in the lower 90s. A strong 590 dm 500 mb subtropical high
over PA and ridging back into central IL will remain anchored in
place next few days as it only very slowly weakens. 500 mb heights
currently 588-589 dm over central IL will slip to 584-586 dm by
sunset Tue. Patchy fog possible in southeast IL early this morning
until around 8 am. Otherwise a fair amount of sunshine expected
today as few cumulus clouds appear late morning and afternoon over
CWA and more prevalent over sw and west central IL and west into
MO and IA. Another hot day with near record highs of 90-95F and
southeast winds less than 10 mph. 1022 mb high pressure over the
eastern Great Lakes will continue to ridge sw into IL through
tonight. Fair skies tonight as cumulus clouds dissipate around
sunset/7 pm with light winds. Lows tonight close to dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Another hot day ahead on Monday with scattered cumulus clouds
giving partly to mostly sunny skies and fairly light SSE winds
less than 10 mph. Near record highs in the lower 90s again.
Nudged high temperatures up a bit today and Monday from guidance,
using persistence as highs have been a bit higher than guidance
during this heat wave. Lows in the mid 60s on Monday night.

00Z forecast model suite has trended slower with a cold front
moving se into nw IL late Tue. So our CWA will remain in the warm
side of the front another day on Tue with highs in the lower 90s
from I-55 se and upper 80s nw of I-55 over the IL river valley.
Some cities from I-55 east will be approaching record highs again.
Have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from Galesburg
nw late Tue afternoon and early Tue evening. The weakening cold
front will push thru central IL during Tue night and should mostly
pass through dry with a wind shift to the west and nw and starting
to bring in cooler air. Little lift/moisture along cold front so
precipitation chances look quite low. Lows Tue night range from
upper 50s by Galesburg to upper 60s near Lawrenceville.

Have a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms se of I-70 Wed
afternoon where cold front is pushing thru there by then. Highs
Wed range from mid 70s along and nw of the IL river, to the mid to
upper 80s from I-70 southeast. Lows Wed night in the low to mid
50s, with upper 40s possible near Galesburg. Models continue to
dig an upper level trof southward over the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio river valley during 2nd half of week, though Ecmwf is
deeper with this trof into IL. Most models keep shower chances ne
of area closer to the Great Lakes with this trof. Seasonably highs
Thu in the low to mid 70s, and 70-75F on Friday. A secondary surge
of cooler air arrives Friday night and Saturday with lows Fri
night in the mid to upper 40s, and highs Sat in the upper 60s to
around 70F. Highs rebound slightly in the lower 70s on Sunday.
CPC`s 8-14 day outlook for 1st week of October shows greater than
50% chance of below normal precipitation with a 33-40% chance of
above normal temperatures. So the dry pattern looks to continue a
couple more weeks.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue across the central IL
airports through 12Z/7 am Monday. Strong 588-590 dm 500 mb
subtropical ridge will remain anchored from the eastern Great
Lakes/PA/NY and ridging westward into IL and continue fair weather
conditions over central IL. A light fog/haze could bring
visibilities to around 6 miles at DEC and CMI til 1330Z. Few
cumulus clouds of 5-7k ft to then appear after 15Z/10 am and
dissipate by sunset. 1022 mb surface high pressure ridge over NY
and western PA and ridging back into central IL will keep winds
fairly light next 24 hours. SE winds of 4-9 kts today will be
light tonight by sunset.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Record Highs Today through Tuesday:

Location       Today    Monday   Tuesday
               Sep 24   Sep 25   Sep 26
-------------- -------  -------  -------
Bloomington... 94/1933  93/2007  93/1897
Champaign..... 94/1891  96/1891  94/1897
Charleston.... 93/1933  91/2016  92/1897
Danville...... 92/1939  94/1897  91/1897
Decatur....... 93/1933  91/1939  96/1897
Effingham..... 95/2010  92/2007  93/1897
Galesburg..... 90/2007  90/2007  92/1897
Jacksonville.. 94/2007  93/2007  97/1897
Olney......... 94/2010  92/2007  94/1897
Peoria........ 92/2007  92/1891  93/1897
Springfield... 93/2007  94/1891  92/1897
Lincoln....... 93/1935  92/1920  91/1953





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