Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240446
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Another very quiet weather night is expected across central and
southeast Illinois, with overall conditions not very different
from the past several days. Overnight lows are likely to be at
least a couple degrees cooler than the past few, with readings
mainly in the mid 60s, as the local air mass is a little drier and
we have an excellent radiational cooling scenario. However, these
slightly cooler readings are still well above normal for late
September.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Todays forecast is very similar to the last few days...and the few
changes in the forecast model blends have been making the rain
more scant in the middle of next week. The weather map this
afternoon, high pressure dominates the eastern half of the
country. A deep upper level trof is keeping south/southwesterly
flow up the leeside of the Rockies and in the High Plains. For the
overnight, similar to last night, unseasonably warm with very
little in the way of cloud cover. Somewhat light winds with more
of a southerly component in the west...more likely to be light and
variable in the east with a lack of a pressure gradient closer to
the ridge. For tomorrow...another hot one, mostly sunny with max
temps into the low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017
Dewpoints have dropped a degree or two each day for the past few
days as drier air aloft gets mixed down to the surface in the heat
of day. Tomorrows highs in the low 90s will be very close to the
apparent temp. Still somewhat humid for the region, hot for the
season, and light winds will not offer much relief. The heat lasts
into Monday, and to a lesser extent on Tuesday. The extended
forecast remains a struggle between the erosion of the eastern
ridge due to Hurricane Maria drifting close to the Atlantic Coast,
and a very amplified western trough. Another quick short
wave/piece of energy moves out of the NW, passing into the
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and dragging a cold front through
the forecast area. However, the hot and dry airmass in the region
keeps that system starved from moisture...and the models have
become more and more dry with the last few runs. Models have
switched back to a slower solution...and confidence crumbling with
the better chances for precip. At this point...Tuesday night
through Wednesday has scattered slight chances in the forecast.
Even without the precip chances, however, the temperatures should
return to closer to normal temps for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the 06Z TAF valid time across
the central Illinois terminals. Light winds are anticipated, along
with minimal cloud cover.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Record Highs Today through Monday:

Location        Today    Sunday   Monday
                Sep 23   Sep 24   Sep 25
--------       -------   -------  -------
Bloomington... 92/1937   94/1933  93/2007
Champaign..... 94/1891   94/1891  96/1891
Charleston.... 93/2010   93/1933  91/2016
Danville...... 91/2010   92/1939  94/1897
Decatur....... 92/2007   93/1933  91/1939
Galesburg..... 89/1937   90/2007  90/2007
Olney......... 94/1960   94/2010  92/2007
Peoria........ 92/1937   92/2007  92/1891
Springfield... 93/2007   93/2007  94/1891
Lincoln....... 92/1937   93/1935  92/1920

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
CLIMATE...Geelhart


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