


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
999 FXUS63 KILX 110506 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be seen through the weekend with the highest chances being on Friday and Saturday. - Hot and humid conditions will be in place through the end of this week and again early next week. Temperatures look to trend cooler by the end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Decreased thunderstorm chances this evening to slight chance for most of the evening with dramatic weakening of convection that moved from southeast IA into west central IL. Nevertheless, the low level jet developing farther west in northern MO/southern IA has been enhancing more thunderstorm activity in that area, and this should extend east-northeastward into northern IL late this evening and after midnight. How much of central IL is affected remains in question, as a few models depict activity remaining north of Knox, Stark, and Marshall Counties, while a few bring activity through that area and even a county or two to the south. Current slight chance to chance category PoPs in this area appear to be on target, so have left forecast as-is after midnight. Otherwise, lows near 70 appear on track for tonight. 37 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...Daily Storm Chances Through the Weekend... A few widely scattered showers and storms have developed in east- central Illinois along a remnant outflow boundary from an overnight thunderstorm complex. Further northwest, a MCV from the same storm complex is spinning over southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa and will be the focus for thunderstorm development over the northern half of Illinois going into this evening. Although most guidance keeps the majority of this activity north of our local area, a few outlier solutions do show storms stretching as far south as I-72. Increasing shear with the approaching MCV and moderately strong instability could lead to a few organized storms capable of mainly strong winds and heavy rainfall. A low-level jet will nose into northern IL overnight, leading to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall north of the area. Better chances for precipitation arrive later on Friday here locally as a shortwave impulse ahead of a parent trough spreads into the middle Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. A warm front is expected to lift into north- central parts of the state by evening with hot and humid conditions developing south of the front. Instability will become moderately strong by afternoon with SBCAPEs looking to approach or exceed 2000 J/kg. ~30 kt of effective wind shear, especially near the front, will be sufficient for thunderstorm organization, posing a risk for all severe hazards. Storms look to fire up sometime late Friday afternoon or early evening in our west, with activity spreading east into the nighttime hours. A cold front moving through the area on Saturday will bring additional chances for precipitation through the weekend. The better upper forcing will be displaced north of the area, though hot and humid conditions and increasing wind shear with the front will once again lead to marginal parameters for a few stronger thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Predictability becomes less certain going into next week, though a brief break in precipitation appears possible early in the week as an upper ridge moves overhead. Upper troughing looks to swing back through the northern CONUS by midweek, which could lead to additional precipitation chances later in the week. ...Hot and Humid Through the End of the Week, Again Early Next Week.. Despite daily precipitation chances, temperatures will remain hot and humid through the end of this week with high temperatures on Friday peaking in the low to middle 90s paired with heat indices around 100, give or take a few degrees. Temperatures fall slightly over the weekend with the cold front passage, but will quickly rebound by the beginning of next week as an upper ridge slides through the Midwest states. Temperatures by the end of next week into next weekend look to trend somewhat cooler than normal with the Climate Prediction Center`s 8- 14 day temperature outlook (Jul 17-23) highlighting a 33-50% chance for below normal temperatures. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A warm front has lifted into northern Illinois and will serve as the main focus for storms through the period. Across central Illinois, outside of the influence of storms, expect VFR conditions and a modest SSW/S breeze to prevail. Gusts to around 20 kt are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be a couple potential windows of showers and storms on station. The first will be with ongoing storms sagging south into central Illinois late this evening. Confidence remains low in reaching the terminals, but they may reach PIA/BMI around 06/07Z and persist a couple hours. Another round of storms is expected late Friday afternoon or evening and again have the highest confidence further north at PIA/BMI. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$