Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 291940
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA OF ILX, WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AND
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION.  PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET. DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE, HAVE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THE SE SHOULD BE WATCHED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RH IS MOSTLY UNTOUCHED AND ANY CLEARING COULD DROP THE TEMPS CLOSE
TO SATURATION IN THE SE, ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SETUP. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH DO NOT SEE ANY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. SO THINKING PCPN
CHANCES SHOULD BE SLIM TO NONE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HAVE ANY POPS
IN FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. ONCE THIS WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH/WASHES OUT...RIDGING RETURNS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

SINCE THE FRONT MOVING IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL LACK PCPN...THE
ONLY THING IT WILL DO IS FINALLY BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. TEMPS
FOR TOMORROW AND FRI WILL STILL BE WARM...IN THE UPPER 80S...BUT
DWPTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER...BELOW 70 DEG...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. COOLER AIR...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DOMINATED BY A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PUSHING MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO DROP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SAT NIGHT AND
SUN IN THE NORTHWEST...THEN SLIDING SOUTH SOME TO INCLUDE THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN FOR MONDAY...BUT AGAIN JUST IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. THE SECOND SHOT OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ONE. THIS SHOT COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST POPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE ON THE LOWER CHANCE SIDE. HOWEVER...POPS ON WED
LOOK TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT THEN BEGIN
TO RISE...INCLUDING THE UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECTING CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE ILX TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATE. IN ADDITION TO THE SCT CIRRUS, A SMALL PATCH OF IFR
CIGS MOVING JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
AFFECT DEC AND CMI. THEN SCATTERED CIRRUS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS
MORNING. DRIER DWPTS FILTERING IN SHOULD MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT,
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE XOVER TEMPS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS



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