Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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031
FXUS63 KILX 040540
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected across
central and southeast Illinois overnight. The only real item of
concern is how quickly skies will clear as high pressure begins to
build into the area. Clearing is quickly spreading toward the area
from the northwest, with the clearing line of interest along the
IL/IA border. Satellite extrapolation, supported by recent HRRR
runs, suggest clearing will make it to our far eastern counties by
daybreak or shortly thereafter.

Going forecast was in good shape overall. Adjusted sky conditions
for the current trends (faster clearing), and made minor hourly
tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A small area of very light rain and flurries se of the IL river and
nw of a Shelbyville to Danville line will diminish as it tracks east
over central/east central IL this afternoon. A 995 mb surface low
pressure northeast of Georgian Bay Canada has a surface trof
extending sw into central IL approaching I-57. A large area of low
clouds blankets WI/MI/IN/IL/MO and eastern IA this afternoon with an
upper level trof settling into the Midwest. Forecast models track
low pressure ne into central Quebec by dawn Thu while upper level
trof axis moves into the MS river valley. This should keep low
clouds in place over much of CWA tonight with some decrease clouds
west and SW CWA later tonight with surface ridging into mid MS
valley by Thu morning. For lows tonight went slightly above MET/MAV
guidance due to low clouds, ranging from the upper teens to near
20F over the IL river valley, to the mid 20s southeast of I-70.
Brisk west winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph will veer WNW
and diminish to 8-14 mph by overnight as Canadian high pressure
over the central Rockies ridges toward the mid MS river valley by
dawn Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Quiet weather pattern will continue over the area the rest of the
week and into the weekend. So, dry weather is expected through the
period. As the upper level pattern becomes one with a long wave
trough over the region, a couple of sfc troughs will push through
the CWA. The first one comes through Thur night and the second one
on Saturday. Both will come through dry as no return flow of
moisture is expected since a large area of high pressure will be
blocking any gulf moisture return. The high pressure will allow
temps to warm back to above normal levels, reaching the 40s and
possibly lower 50s for the weekend. Model guidance temps looks good.

Pcpn chances return as a weather system moves southeast into the Grt
Lks region and drags a cold front across the CWA Sunday night and
Monday. This system will also deepen the trough that will be sitting
over the area during the period and keep a small chance of pcpn in
the area for Mon night and Tue. Most of the pcpn through the period
will be light snow, but with warmer temps for Monday, a mix of rain
and snow will be possible across the central and southern parts of
the CWA, with all rain in the southeast. This system will move
through quick enough that dry weather will return for Tue night and
Wed. Temps will be around or just above normal for Monday, but once
the system moves through, colder air will advect into the region for
Mon night through Wed. MEX guidance looks too cool for Mon through
Wed, so the warm all blend temps look good.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Skies across the central Illinois terminal area will clear from
northwest to southeast for the rest of the night as high pressure
builds into the area. Once the MVFR CIGs go, VFR conditions should
prevail for the balance of the 06Z TAF valid time. The approach of
the high pressure will also be accompanied by decreasing winds,
with the west northwest winds trending more southwesterly with
time.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK



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