Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A warm front will lift to the north of our forecast area before
sunrise this morning. Gusty southwest winds will usher in a warm and
relatively dry airmass today. High clouds will decrease in
coverage and thickness this morning, allowing for nearly full
sun today. The dry air will heat up quickly, with high
temps topping out near record highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Fire weather concerns will be heightened as relative humidity values
dip below 30% and wind speeds increase to 15 to 25 mph. A relative
lack of precipitation recently has left dead fuels on the ground
more susceptible to burning.

An approaching cold front tonight will keep southerly winds steady
in the 10 to 15 mph range overnight. Clouds will increase after
midnight for areas south of I-74. The cloud cover will limit
the diurnal temp swing, helping to keep low temps in the
40s. Rain looks to remain south of our southern counties before
sunrise on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Unseasonable mild springlike temperatures are expected across
central and southeast IL today through much of next work week. The
warmest days still appears to be Sunday and Monday with highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Some cities could tie or break record highs
and included a climate section listing record highs and record warm
lows from today Feb 17th through Wed/Feb 22nd.

Large upper level ridge over the Great Plains will shift east into
IL today and be reinforced over the area on Sunday and then shift
east over the Ohio river valley on Monday. Meanwhile a 563 dm 500 mb
low over west central Texas will eject northeast into nw AR by
sunrise Saturday, then along the western KY/TN border by sunset Sat.
00Z models still keep brunt of the rain showers along and south of
the Ohio river over KY on Saturday, but isolated light rain showers
or sprinkles could get as far north as I-70 Sat afternoon. More
cloud cover expected southeast of the IL river on Sat with mostly
cloudy skies in southeast IL. This will tend to keep temps a bit
cooler with highs mostly in the lower 60s, but still well above
normal levels. The 563 dm 500 low opens up as it moves into the mid
Atlantic states by dawn Sunday while upper level ridge builds back
into IL Sunday morning. Mostly sunny skies and very mild temps
expected Sunday with highs ranging from mid to upper 60s, with sw
CWA near 70F.

An approaching weakening front from the west to increase clouds
later Sunday night into Monday. Still even with the increased
clouds, temps expected to rise into the upper 60s to around 70F.
Latest models continue to trend slower with showers and chances also
appear more isolated. Monday evening should still be dry, then have
20-40% chance of showers overnight Mon night west of I-57, then 20-
30% chance of showers from I-55 east on Tue morning as a weakening
front moves east into IL by then. Main low pressure systems and
forcing are well north and south of IL near the Manitoba and Ontario
province line and near the southeast TX coast during Tue. Highs Tue
in the mid to upper 60s, with some lower 60s north of I-74.

ECMWF, GFS and GEM models similar in shifting light qpf east of
IL Tue night into Wed as cutoff low moves east over the Gulf of
Mexico and northern stream low pressure system moves into James
Bay Canada. A flat upper level ridge is over IL and keeps mild
highs Wed in the 60s. Low chances of rain showers mainly north of
I-74 Thu afternoon, then increasing chances of rain later Thu
night into Friday as a stronger low pressure system ejects ne into
the Midwest on Friday. Mild temps ahead of this system on Friday,
then temperatures likely turn colder for next weekend behind this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Low level wind shear will remain a concern early this TAF period,
as winds at 2K FT above the surface continue at 40kt from 270 deg.
The strong low level jet /LLJ/ will decrease after sunrise,
diminishing the LLWS conditions after 14z. The remainder of the
day will see VFR conditions with gusty SW winds at 12-14KT
gusting to 20-22KT. A return of LLWS conditions looks likely for
this evening, as another westerly LLJ develops around 2K FT AGL.
VFR conditions look to continue overnight with minimal cloud cover
until late tonight, when high clouds thicken.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Friday Feb 17th...
Peoria........ 64 / 47
Lincoln....... 63 / 47
Springfield... 68 / 52
Champaign..... 69 / 47
Bloomington... 64 / 45
Decatur....... 61 / 48
Danville...... 71 / 51
Galesburg..... 60 / 43
Charleston.... 72 / 56
Effingham..... 68 / 49

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Saturday Feb 18th...
Peoria........ 63 / 42
Lincoln....... 63 / 39
Springfield... 65 / 43
Champaign..... 65 / 42
Bloomington... 63 / 44
Decatur....... 70 / 43
Danville...... 67 / 49
Galesburg..... 63 / 43
Charleston.... 68 / 48
Effingham..... 70 / 44

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71 / 50
Lincoln....... 71 / 46
Springfield... 70 / 54
Champaign..... 68 / 46
Bloomington... 70 / 47
Decatur....... 66 / 48
Danville...... 70 / 54
Galesburg..... 63 / 52
Charleston.... 72 / 53
Effingham..... 70 / 45

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68 / 46
Lincoln....... 70 / 46
Springfield... 74 / 46
Champaign..... 71 / 45
Bloomington... 67 / 45
Decatur....... 70 / 47
Danville...... 70 / 48
Galesburg..... 64 / 41
Charleston.... 73 / 48
Effingham..... 68 / 54

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Tuesday Feb 21st...
Peoria........ 69 / 46
Lincoln....... 69 / 45
Springfield... 69 / 48
Champaign..... 67 / 47
Bloomington... 69 / 46
Decatur....... 68 / 48
Danville...... 67 / 50
Galesburg..... 68 / 40
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 73 / 52

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Wednesday Feb 22nd...
Peoria........ 71 / 51
Lincoln....... 71 / 52
Springfield... 71 / 53
Champaign..... 69 / 49
Bloomington... 70 / 53
Decatur....... 72 / 51
Danville...... 71 / 54
Galesburg..... 61 / 45
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 74 / 55

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
CLIMATE...07



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