Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 291150
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAJORITY OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED OUT TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING.  ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE FROM EXITING TS RESULTING IN SOME
FOG THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED IN A COUPLE HOURS MAINLY IN THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN ILX THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NWRLY FLOW/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.  SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NE, CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COOLER MID LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION SEEMING A BIT REPETITIVE AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
REMAINS IN A LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FCST PD.  A
STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION KEEP POPS FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SOME TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN. FORECAST KEEPS SOME POPS IN TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND INCREASING
TOWARDS MORNING WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST IN NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS, WITH A BREAK TUES NIGHT POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE ON WED AND SO ON THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. WED/WED
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SOME OF THE MORE FOCUSED POPS AS A BOUNDARY IS
APPARENT IN SFC WIND FIELDS IN THE MODELS.  ANY BOUNDARY LIKELY TO
SET UP IN THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS/DYNAMICS FOR ANY SHORT
WAVE ASSISTED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM.  THE SERIES OF WAVES STARTS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE DISSONANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED AS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND STORMY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THIS STRATUS WILL NOT BE AROUND LONG GIVEN THAT CLOUD DECK IS NOT
THAT THICK AND SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. SO HAVE THINGS
IMPROVING 14-15Z AT ALL SITES AND THEN CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOST OF THE
DAY...AND THEN TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.