Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 292341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
541 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Large vertically stacked low over the Upper Midwest dominating the
weather map across the country as the trof stretches from coast to
coast.  Much of the south/southwesterly flow through the Midwest has
brought yesterdays rains... and the continuation of the warm and
mild weather through today.  However, cooler air is just to the west
on the other side of a sfc trof/secondary cold front.  Wind shift is
not expected until closer to midnight, and even then, more likely to
see some westerly winds more than a northerly component.  Drier air
expected to help scour out some of the higher dwpts in the southeast
where cloud cover today trapped some of the ground moisture from
yesterdays precip. Overall, quiet weather expected through tomorrow.
And whereas the highs tomorrow will be cooler than today...they will
be right in line with climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

As the large low pressure area continues to move east-northeast,
high pressure ridge will build into the middle of the US and bring
dry and seasonable temps to the entire CWA for the remainder of the
week and the beginning of the weekend. For the latter part of the
weekend the models are finally coming into some better agreement.
The ECMWF is not as amplified and robust with a weather system
moving across the area as in previous runs, and appears to have
become in better agreement with the Canadian, but still more precip
than the GFS. Consensus in the models is not with chance of rain and
snow for Sunday and then becoming dry again for Sun night and Mon.
Then both ECMWF and GFS agree that another weather system will be
moving out of the southwest and into the northern plains for Monday
night and Tuesday. Upper level and low level temps through this
period should be warm enough for all precip to be in the form of
rain even though overnight lows on Monday night will only be in the
mid to upper 30s.

High temps through most of the forecast period will be right around
or just below normal for beginning of December and do not see much
fluctuation over the next 4 days. Temps will then begin to warm some
for Mon and a little more for Tue as southerly winds ahead of the
next weather system for early next week brings lots of warm and
moist air to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A cold frontal boundary will move eastward across the central IL
terminals late this evening bringing a shift from southerly to WSW
winds along with clearing skies. An area of low cloud cover
containing MVFR cigs is expected to wrap around a deep low over
the upper Midwest...eventually affecting central IL terminals
after 17-21Z Wednesday. Winds SSW 8-12 kts until around 05Z
becoming WSW under 10 kts. Wind speeds increasing to 10-15 kts
with gusts to around 20 kts around 16-18Z.




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