Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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712
FXUS63 KILX 222100
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Holiday travel will not be impacted by the weather in central and
eastern IL as our benign pattern continues. High pressure will be
departing the area this evening, followed by a weak short wave
trough approaching from the northern Plains. The short wave will
be rather rather moisture starved in the low levels, so only an
area of mid/high level clouds will move across tonight. Most of
the clouds should clear central IL Thursday morning, and eastern
IL by late morning. Increasing southwest winds will allow
temperatures on Thanksgiving day to climb into the 45 to 50 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The upper level northwest flow will continue into early next week
across the Midwest. A stronger shortwave trough is expected to
move through the upper Midwest late Friday into Saturday, but this
one also will have very little moisture to work with. Most of the
models are indicating the best lift will be north and northeast of
our forecast area, so the slight chance PoPs for Champaign-
Danville have been removed for Friday night.

The main impact of the approaching shortwave will be a breezy
southwest flow so the wind for Friday was bumped up. There should
be plenty of low level mixing and warm advection so temperatures
were also increased above guidance in some areas on Friday. Highs
are expected to range from the lower 60s in west central IL to the
mid/upper 50s along the IN border.

Cooler temperatures are anticipated through the weekend after the
shortwave passes and the NW flow gets re-established. A backing
upper level flow early next week will signal increasing
temperatures again, well through the 50s. The European and GFS
models are also exhibiting some major differences in the upper
level pattern and associated sensible weather by Tue/Wed. The
European is really digging an upper level trough into the
southwestern U.S., while the GFS is more progressive with the
energy. For now will side with the more consistent GFS. Thus, will
only carry some slight chance and low chance PoPs for showers in
southeast IL late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period in central
and eastern Illinois.

A ridge of high pressure will move across the forecast area this
afternoon into early this evening, resulting in a clear sky and
light wind. During the evening, increasing mid level warm
advection ahead of weak shortwave trough will result in mid and
upper level clouds approaching from the NW. A lack of low level
moisture is expected to keep cloud bases at or above 8 kFT
overnight.

The shortwave is expected to pass the area by early Thursday
morning, leaving us with only a few clouds and an increasing
southwest wind.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Miller



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