Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 010837
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HZ OVERNIGHT WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO MISSOURI BY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH VCSH OVER OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW VFR CIGS SETTLING IN DURING THE MORNING
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND GENERALLY A LIGHT EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH



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