Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 172007
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Mositure chnnal satellite loop shows the upper low rotating
northeast across KS into the northwest tip of MO by this
afternoon. Instability beneath upper low with surface convergence
is strongest over northern MO rotating into IA. Cap over IL seen
in morning soundings and in the SPC isntability mesoanalysis shows
minor convection developed so far is not surface based. Progs do
show small period early this evening when surface based convection
still possible in western IL, but then window will close by mid
evening. With the movement of the upper closed low to the
northeast, dragging the surface front to approach IL overnight,
will be continued chance of mainly elevated convection. Minor
chance of severe winds possible in the northwest part of CWA, due
to strong winds above surface and a chance of a stronger storm
bringing those winds down to surface. However that window gets
smaller as evening progresses and the lack of low level
convergence in area making it more difficult for significant
convection to form.

As for Thursday, the upper low moves off to north and all but the
south parts of warning area is dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

In the long range, the next system begins on Friday morning as
overrunning over the front that will stall over southern IL late
Thursday. Showers and storms move back into the area Friday,
continuing through Saturday and finally exiting on Sunday, after
the front moves through region Saturday night. Will have to watch
system for possible periods of heavy rain. Models are not totally
in align yet on timing and pcpn amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Though instability analysis depicts airmass still capped, there is
enough instability that scattered storms remain possible this
afternoon, but especially overnight with the approach of the front
into region. Gradient keeping strong winds over region into
evening, and with the upper system moving through IA in the
evening and overnight, for a period in the late evening, will be
enough decoupling to produce LLWS in area, before winds drop. This
reflected in 18z TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch



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