Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011754
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES



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