Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 201705
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

With sunny skies and southerly winds bringing very warm air into
the area ahead of a slow moving front, current forecast looks in
good shape for rest of the day. Have made some very small
adjustments to high temps today, but not enough to warrant full
update to forecast. Therefore, no update planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Warmup should get going in earnest today, as a thermal ridge aloft
builds east into the Mississippi Valley. May see some mid 90s over
the southwest CWA, but 90-93 will prevail over the forecast area.

Tail end of a squall line over Minnesota early this morning
extends into far northeast Nebraska. This is just ahead of the
cold front, which will be moving east today but will run into the
building ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Redevelopment of this
line is expected late afternoon from Wisconsin into eastern Iowa,
and have backed off on the daytime rain chances. Most of the
synoptic and high-res models struggle to get this line any further
than the Illinois River, with the GFS remaining the only one to
bring any remnants further east overnight. Highest PoP`s remain in
the northwest corner of the CWA this evening, with slight chances
just east of the Illinois River.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Upper level ridge will become firmly entrenched over the central
and eastern U.S. the next several days, as Jose`s remnants and
later Maria form quite the bottleneck off the East Coast. 850 mb
temperatures expected to reach as high as about 21C at times
through the weekend. Have gone on the higher end of the model
guidance for high temperatures, mainly low-mid 90s through the
weekend. As we get into the weekend, chances for record highs will
increase, as they are mainly in the lower 90s by that point
(records in the mid 90s are common Thursday-Friday).

With the ridge in place, precipitation chances will be non
existent into early next week. By Tuesday, a cold front will be
approaching from the northwest, but the bulk of the rain from this
should be just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies are
clear, but expecting a little bit (FEW) of CU/SC to develop this
afternoon. Then skies should clear for the night. New model runs
showing some slowing/timing of precip in west/northwest IL late
tonight and even some thoughts that PIA will not see any precip at
all. Most models are dry, while GFS still has precip. For now will
go with zero precip in TAFs and let later shifts update once
precip materializes. Winds will be southerly through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Record highs through the weekend:

Location         Wed       Thu       Fri       Sat       Sun
--------       -------   -------   -------   -------   -------
Bloomington    95/1908   94/1908   94/1930   92/1937   94/1933
Champaign      94/1948   95/1891   95/1891   94/1891   94/1891
Charleston     93/1955   95/1940   95/2005   93/2010   93/1933
Decatur        96/1940   95/1955   94/2005   92/2007   93/1933
Galesburg      91/1940   90/1940   92/1988   89/1937   90/2007
Olney         100/1896  100/1940   96/2010   94/1960   94/2010
Peoria         94/1940   93/1940   93/1930   92/1937   92/2007
Springfield    96/1931   96/1931   95/2005   93/2007   93/2007

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
CLIMATE...Geelhart



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