Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 012330
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING TERMINALS. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS JUST WEST OF KCOU
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT KUIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH A COMPLEX OF STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THOSE
STORMS MAY PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD TRY AND FIRE
UP A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NEAR KSTL LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EALY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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