Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 071128

628 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2015

Main question for today will be temps.

With weak steering winds thru 600 mb, current cloud cover is
expected to slowly drift swd today. FG developing across srn
portions of the CWA is also expected to lift to form some cloud
cover this morning. With more cloud cover expected today, have
lower temps slightly compared to prev forecast. However, even
brief periods of sun shud allow temps to jump quickly. As for
tonight, with light winds, have trended cooler across srn portions
of the CWA, but kept a warmer trend across wrn and nrn areas where
winds will become sly with more cloud cover tonight ahead of the
approaching cdfnt.


.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2015

Focus quickly turns to precip chances associated with the fnt on
Thurs night and Fri. Latest mdl guidance has continued to slow
fropa, but mdl solns remain in good agreement.

Mdls continue to show the sfc ridge building ewd as the low
approaches. The region never really becomes open to the Gulf ahead
of the approaching cdfnt and low system. This shud limit the
amount of moisture available for storms. CAPE is also somewhat
limited ahead of the fnt. Due to the limited moisture and the
performance of the last fnt to move thru the region, have been
hesitant to forecast PoPs above 50 percent. Still believe SHRA
will develop with isod to widely sct TS, but coverage is not
currently anticipated to be great.

Large sfc ridge builds into the area, but sly flow is back by Sat
allowing warmer temps for most of the weekend and into next week.
Timing of the next fnt, sometime on Mon into Tues, is uncertain
due to differences among guidance. However, expect fropa to remain
dry due to even less moisture available than with the fropa on
Thurs and Fri.



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2015

Can`t rule out some light fog developing this morning due to
nearly calm winds and some breaks in the clouds, especially given
the low dew point depressions noted on recent METARs. Similar to
the last few mornings, any fog which develops should mix out by
mid to late morning. Otherwise VFR conditions with some cloudiness
is expected for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will become
southerly overnight at KCOU/KUIN but probably won`t take on a
preferred direction at KSTL/KSUS/KCPS until after 08/12z.





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