Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 011102
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Surface ridge centered over southeast Canada continues to filter
cool air down through the great lakes into the Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, the shortwave moving over the lower-mid Mississippi
Valley will continue to provide support for clouds to hang around
today.  The combination of these two features will result in another
cool day across Missouri and Illinois with temperatures running 5 to
10 degrees below normal.  Expect no additional precip today given
the low level cool/dry flow even with the shortwave overhead.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Warming trend still looks on track for Tuesday through the end of
the week.  The upper level ridge over the Rockies will build
eastward through the latter half of the week.  This will allow
warmer air to build up across the southern Plains and into the
Missouri Valley.  Guidance builds 850mb temps to 14-16C across the
area by Thursday which should mix down to the low to mid 80s.  Don`t
see much chance for precip across the area through Thursday with the
upper level ridge providing large scale subsidence.  However, medium
range guidance pushes the ridge axis back over the Plains Friday and
into the weekend.  Current indications are that a couple of
shortwaves will move across the area in northwest flow aloft Friday
through Sunday.  With these disturbances in the area combined with
warm temperatures and increasing boundary layer moisture, the going
forecast for scattered thunderstorms Friday through Sunday still
looks good.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Upper level low spinning east across the bootheel of Missouri is
responsible for the low stratus, fog and patchy drizzle that
continue to affect the area. Slow improvement to conditions is
expected this morning with cloud cover holding on into the
evening. Light northeast wind will become nearly calm tonight.
Confidence in clearing potential tonight and fog development too
low to include at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR ceiling and visibility with some drizzle is expected the next
few hours before conditions improve to MVFR and VFR by this
afternoon. Light northeast wind will become nearly calm this
evening. If some clearing occurs this evening, additional stratus
or fog development will need to be forecast overnight.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  58  76  61 /   5   5   5   5
Quincy          69  54  74  56 /   0   5   5   5
Columbia        68  55  75  58 /   0   5   5   5
Jefferson City  69  55  76  59 /   0   5   5   5
Salem           69  56  75  59 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      68  54  74  54 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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