Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 020426
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MO FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND ALSO WITH DIMINISHED CONVERGENCE ON FADING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MANAGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN NC MO. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF NE MO/SE IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     75  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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