Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 281936
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Typical late October/early November weather forecast for the next
seven days with a few highlights/reminders:

* Widespread frost/freeze possible Friday Night/Saturday Morning.

* Daylight Savings Time ends Sunday Morning November 2nd at 2 a.m.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Upper level low across the upper Midwest will spin northeast toward
the southern tip of Hudson Bay, with the attendant long wave trof
axis slowly shifting from the Midwest to the Ohio River Valley.
Temperatures to remain seasonal with highs in the 50s/60s and lows
in the 30s/40s. Can`t rule out some patchy frost across parts of
northeast Missouri tonight/Wednesday morning and the eastern
Ozarks/southwest Illinois on Wednesday Night/Thursday morning.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Weak disturbance moving southeast from the northern Plains will
bring increased cloud cover and a chance of some showers to the
CWA. Currently, forecast models portray weak surface low pressure
moving directly overhead during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Have increased POPs into the chance category for locations
along and northeast of the track of the system. Temperature
forecast is always tricky with these "clipper-like" systems as
there often is a tight gradient. Current forecast has temperatures
warming into the middle 60s across portions of Central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks with upper 50s for locations north and east
of St. Louis.

A strong shortwave will dive south across the Great Lakes on Friday,
bringing a reinforcing high pressure system overhead late Friday
night and Saturday morning. Blended guidance and MOS forecast
suggest most of the CWA will drop below freezing, with mid 20s quite
possible in the typical cold valley locations. Will be highlighting
this potential in the HWO and Weather Story.

Temperatures will moderate quickly this weekend as a large upper
level ridge builds from the Plains into the Midwest and surface
winds become southerly. Then the medium range model guidance
suggests a significant increase in the POPs next week as a slow
moving cold front advances southeast across the CWA in southwest
flow aloft.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

VFR through the period. Expect scattered cirrus at times. Gusty
northwest winds will subside around sunset due to a weakening
pressure gradient and the loss of daytime mixing.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period. Gusty northwest winds
will subside around sunset.

Kanofsky

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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