Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 230847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
347 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Expect dry weather today and tonight as an upper ridge remains
Missouri and Illinois.  A stationary front that has been acting as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms will remain north of the area.
Expect mainly sunny skies today with forecast soundings showing
mixing up to around 850mb. With 850mb temperatures near 20C,
expect highs to once again be in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees. With light winds and mainly clear skies tonight, lows
should fall to near the agreeable MOS lows in the 60s.


.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The dry weather will continue into Saturday as the ridge remains
over the area, so any showers and thunderstorms associated with
the approaching trough from the west will stay just to the west of
the CWA. Still looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms
will enter central and northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois on Saturday night as low level moisture convergence
begins to increase underneath southwesterly mid and upper level
flow. This forcing will spread southeastward across the CWA on
Sunday and Sunday night as upper trough moves across northern
CONUS, so will maintain high chance or likely PoPs. Rain chances
will start to come to an end as a cold front moves across the area
on Monday night.

There will be some scattered showers over the area on Monday and
Monday night as both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper low moving
across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Drier weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday as the upper low moves off to the east and
an upper ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will be below
or near normal.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Radiational fog has already begun developing within Chesterfield
Valley and impacting KSUS where the new TAF reflects IFR conditions
for a good portion of the overnight period. Still thinking KCPS
will see fog development overnight with potential for periodic IFR
conditions. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR flight conditions should
prevail throughout the forecast period.


VFR flight conditions should prevail throughout the forecast





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