Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 020846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/BR,
PRIMARILY IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 4-5SM,
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECT KSTL.
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING NEAR MIDDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

GLASS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  74  94  75 /   5   5  10   5
QUINCY          92  69  92  70 /  10   5  10   5
COLUMBIA        92  69  93  70 /  10   5   5   0
JEFFERSON CITY  92  69  93  70 /   5   5   5   5
SALEM           92  70  91  70 /  10   5  10   5
FARMINGTON      92  68  92  68 /  10   5   5   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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