Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 020505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS DIMINISHING, SO MOST PLACES TO JUST SEE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN
NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO FIREUP, MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MO NEAR
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXACT TRACK OF COMPLEX OF STORMS HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT STILL FEEL
THAT BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MO. COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES, SO
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS EXPECTED AND KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING TIL 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, LOWS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ON THURSDAY, FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA AND
REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

THEN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO WILL SEE OFF AND ON CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOST ACTIVE WX NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN
IL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
THRU THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOWER CIGS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT COU AND THE STL METRO SITES THRU MUCH OF THURSDAY. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK N DURING THE
VALID PERIOD.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
     OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-
     WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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