Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 172331

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
631 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Focus will once again be an MCS tonight.

Convective debris today from MCS last night has slowed heating
today. STCU field developed early this morning beneath an EML,
however, breaks are finally becoming evident as cap begins to
weaken somewhat and boundary layer air destabilizes.

Expect TSRA to impact nrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon
or early evening hours. Not much change in the prev thinking with
all threats possible with any discrete storms that impact the
area. Any discrete storms shud become line segments fairly quickly
becoming mainly a wind threat. This line shud then congeal and
sink swd thru the CWA thru the night. Expect only lingering SHRA,
isod TS, across srn portions of the CWA by 12z Sun.

For Sun, expect a cooler day with nwly winds at the sfc behind
the cdfnt. Expect convective debris to linger thru the morning
hours. With cyclonic curvature across nrn and nwrn portions of the
CWA, expect a fair amount of diurnal CU to develop which shud
also help keep temps down. However, how far SW this thicker cloud
cover will extend is uncertain attm.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Quiet weather is expected from Sunday night through part of
Tuesday due to a surface ridge which settles across the region in
the wake of Sunday`s cold front. By Tuesday afternoon, the surface
high pressure center will have moved far enough eastward for
southwesterly winds around its western periphery to bring a warm
and moist air mass back towards MO/IL. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible within this unstable air mass.

The advection of warm and moist air will also act to sharpen a
developing warm front which then lifts northeastward on Tuesday
night and Wednesday in response to a low pressure system moving
into the north central CONUS. However, there is considerable model
disagreement after 00z Wed regarding both surface and upper air
features. Models are in general agreement that there ought to be
at least one surface front near the area at least once during the
middle and late part of next week and that the upper air pattern
becomes quasizonal with several embedded vorticity maxima, but
there is significant disagreement regarding the timing and
placement of these features.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Supercell moving swd out of IA is expected to impact KUIN shortly
after 01z. This storm shud be capable of producing damaging winds
and large hail. Otherwise, little change from prev TAFs.





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