Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 251037
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
537 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Convection will continue to percolate today invof a slow-moving
cold front. As the previous shift noted, the dew point gradient is
lagging several hours behind the wind shift. The dew point
gradient may serve as an additional focus for SHRA/TSRA dvlpmt
today. The overall trend will be for pcpn to sink southward with
the cdfnt.

Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler tdy compared to
ydy across most of the CWA except for the far southern CWA and
eastern Ozarks. Those areas may experience some warming before
pcpn sinks southward.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Conditions look unsettled this week. A cold front is forecast to
stall across the region this week, which will act as a focus for
pcpn. The presence of this bdry combined with several impulses
aloft moving through weakly NW flow will lead to periods of
SHRA/TSRA through the week. Pcpn should generally remain across
the southern half of the CWA until Wednesday, when the stalled
front begins to lift back northeastward as a warm front ahead of
an approaching vort max.

Daily high temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 deg F will be
seasonably warm, and lower dew point values will create less
oppressive conditions compared to what occurred over the last
several days. Peak heat index values are expected to remain in
the 90s this week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms continued from COU to the St Louis
metro area early this morning along and just south of a cold
front. This front should continue to sag slowly southward today
and tonight. The convection should shift south of the taf sites
later this morning. There will likely be redevelopment late this
afternoon, but it appears that most of this activity will be just
south of the taf sites. Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected
outside of the showers/storms with the cloud cover likely thinning
out late this morning and afternoon. North-northwesterly surface
winds can be expected today with a light north-northeast wind
tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Showers and thunderstorms continued from COU
to the St Louis metro area early this morning along and just
south of a cold front. This front should continue to sag slowly
southward today and tonight. The convection should shift south of
STL later this morning. There will likely be redevelopment late
this afternoon, but it appears that most of this activity will be
just south of STL. Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected
outside of the showers/storms with the cloud cover likely thinning
out late this morning and afternoon. North-northwesterly surface
winds can be expected today with a light north-northeast wind
tonight.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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