Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 190856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Surface ridge extends from the Great Lakes region southwest into
MO. Just scattered diurnal cumulus clouds expected late this
morning and afternoon along with some high level clouds. High
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and
just slightly below normal.


.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Upper level trough now over the southwestern US will approach our
area tonight with increasing cloudiness along with showers
spreading into portions of central and southeast MO late tonight.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing and coverage of the
precipitation tonight and Friday. The ECMWF model appears a little
bullish on its QPF tonight, while the GFS looks too skimpy both
tonight and Friday. The best QPF should be south and southeast of
our forecast area associated with a surface low moving
northeastward from the Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley
region. Will place the highest pops, albeit only chance across
southeast MO and southwest IL on Friday. With the upper level trough
moving east of the forecast area Friday night the precipitation
should shift east of the region. A shortwave will be dropping
southward through our area Saturday afternoon and night, but it
appears that moisture will be too limited for any precipitation
with continued surface ridging over our area. Warmer, more normal
temperatures typical of late May can be expected by Sunday with an
upper level ridge over our region, and as surface/low level winds
become southerly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of our
area. There will be the potential for convection by Monday night
as the upper level ridge shifts east of the region, and continued
southerly flow leads to warmer temperatures and relatively high
humidities. Weak southwest flow shortwaves coupled with low-mid
level warm air advection should bring periods of convection from
Monday night through the remainder of the extended forecast



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
be light as high pressure moves through the area.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected the next
30 hours with light winds.





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