Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 021749
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS WEEKEND)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY WAS SINKING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOSH BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT, A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH MOST
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY INVOF THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY ALSO SERVE TO FOCUS
SH/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE WEEKEND.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MO/IL ON MONDAY NIGHT,
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. LLJ INTERACTION WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LSX CWA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AT 17Z A MIX OF IFR-MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM KCOU INTO
THE ST. LOUIS REGION, WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT STRATUS/FOG WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KCOU-KSTL LINE RESULTING IN A MIX
OF IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS LASTING THRU 14-15Z FRIDAY, WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIG HEIGHTS RISING AND
VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
STRATUS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP RESULTING IN MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LASTING THRU 14-15Z FRIDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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