Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 282322 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Nice cumulus field spreading slowly northwest through west
Kentucky this afternoon. This seems to be the edge of better low-
level moisture, which is expected to continue spreading northwest
through the entire region through tonight. Not sure if it will
result in persistent lower clouds through the night or not, but
high clouds will be lowering and thickening a bit as the upper-
level disturbance approaches from the northwest.

The main issue for this forecast is convective potential over the
weekend. The 12Z NAM is similar to yesterday`s 12Z run in
developing some isolated QPF over west Kentucky Saturday
afternoon. The 12Z GFS has a similar signal now too. Low-level
moisture is increasing from that direction, and it may be just
enough to squeeze out a few isolated storms. With no shear to play
with, any storms Saturday afternoon will go up and right back down
quickly. A brief heavy downpour, some modest outflow winds and a
few lightning strikes would be the primary concerns. Have added in
a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Pennyrile region of west
Kentucky.

With the upper-level disturbance overhead Saturday night will have
a small chance of storms throughout the region. Anything that
develops will be short-lived and isolated. The 12Z NAM has a
fairly strong signal for diurnal convection mainly over west
Kentucky Sunday afternoon, and the GFS and ECMWF also have some
lesser signal for that timeframe. Will have 20-30% chances
throughout the area, with the best PoPs over west Kentucky. Sunday
night should begin another dry stretch for the region, as high
pressure aloft takes over.

As for temperatures, definitely will see a warming trend into the
weekend. Generally stayed close to the consensus of 12Z guidance
for highs and lows through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

The extended forecast is mostly dry for the PAH forecast area, but
confidence in this forecast is more limited in the later stages. The
med range models/ensemble means suggest a broad ridge aloft will
persist over much of the ern CONUS, with a tendency for a mid/upper
low to persist somewhere in the MS River valley. No real trigger for
storm initiation will exist for us. Through Thursday night, plenty
of warm air aloft should preclude all but the most isolated shower
or tstm from forming in our area. Meanwhile, the overall longwave
pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify.

The latest runs of some of the med range models (namely the GFS and
ECMWF) take the tropical remnants of Erika farther west, into the
ern Gulf Coast area late in the week. It is possible that deep
moisture could surge into in srn sections of the PAH forecast area
by Fri (Day 7), which could supply an additional ingredient for deep
moist convection, thus small PoPs for showers/tstms were included.

Expect near-seasonable temps in the extended, with humidity typical
for late summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Low level moisture will be on the increase from the southeast
through the period. CU late this afternoon may linger into the
overnight hours at all sites except KCGI.

There should be a persistent light south wind tonight, so did not
mention fog at this time. Also guidance indicates that lows will
be well above the cross-over temperatures at all sites.

Small chances for isolated convection Saturday afternoon mainly
over western Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Expect a south wind
aob 10 knots at all sites by mid morning. VFR conditions expected
at all sites through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP


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