Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 182340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CONFIDENCE GENERALLY DECREASES AS WE HEAD INTO WED/WED NIGHT.

COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF STL AROUND MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SE TO AROUND THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 03Z. MID LEVEL FORCING
IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MEEK. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHOULD BE A DRY AND PLEASANT TIME PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
DEVELOP OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT...AND MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE REGION ON WED. OP GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW MUCH QPF DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT HEAD OF THE SFC LOW WED...ESP OVER SE MO.
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT EITHER WAY AS OF NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE NOT SENDING A STRONG
SIGNAL STARTING THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED OR THURSDAY WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGH CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND THE MODELS HINT AT SOME EXTREMELY LIGHT PRECIP TRYING
WORK INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. IN
CONTRAST THE UPPER LEVEL GOES FROM A NEAR ZONAL LIKE FLOW BACK TO
RIDGING. SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN SATURDAY PRECIP CHC...CURRENTLY WE
HAVE IT DRY. PLAN TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT
GENERATES...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE SLGT CHC AT BEST AND RESTRICTED
TO THE WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WOULD HAVE A WARM
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY AND PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR
MONDAY...CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR POPS THAT TIME FRAME. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT
BOTH AGREE ANY PRECIP SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS/CHANCES MONDAY AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WE WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THEN
GO TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE
WARM FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS TS POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCES AT KCGI SO WENT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR AN HOUR THERE. ELSEWHERE VCTS SEEMED LIKE THE BEST
OPTION. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ANYTHING LEFT BY THE TIME IT WOULD
REACH KOWB. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL VEER AND INCREASE JUST A BIT WITH MIXING TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS


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