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000
FXUS63 KPAH 031742
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

There is finally light at the end of the tunnel. The back edge of
the ongoing winter storm is in sight, but it is located over
southeast Kansas at the time of this writing and moving eastward, so
we can`t celebrate quite yet.

The surface low/wave on a frontal boundary south and east of our CWA
will continue to move off to the east northeast today. As a result,
the overrunning precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet
that has been falling over the past 24 hours is finally coming to an
end, but the party is not over yet. With the departure of the low,
the deeper cold has begun to overspread the region from the
northwest changing all precipitation to snow. Per satellite and
radar, a well defined deformation zone has developed which will be
the main snow producer/forcing mechanism for our region through the
mid morning hours. Using HPC QPF and a 15:1 ratio, additional snowfall
totals should range from an inch or less over our far northern
counties to around six to seven inches over our far southeast
counties.

It is not uncommon for models to overdo QPF amounts and duration
where deformation zones are concerned, but per satellite and radar
data see no signs of weakening yet. If we see any signs of the
deformation weakening or falling apart, we will adjust snowfall
amounts downward at that time. By midday today, this memorable
winter storm will be just a fleeting memory, although not one that
will be soon forgotten.

Through the remainder of the short term period, high pressure at the
surface and west northwest flow aloft should keep our region dry
with temperatures well below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

The long term period will be mainly dry with slowly moderating
temperatures.

On Wednesday night...a 500 mb shortwave will amplify as it moves
east across the Mississippi Valley. An inverted surface trough will
develop over the Gulf coast states northward into central Kentucky.
The 00z ecmwf remains dry with this system. The 00z gfs hints at
some light qpf. Will introduce slight chance pops in southern parts
of west KY.

Thursday through Friday will be mainly clear as an upper level ridge
develops in the wake of the deepening trough to our east. Southwest
low level flow and March sun will eat away at the snow cover.
Guidance looks reasonable with high temps moderating to around 50
Friday.

On Friday night and Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave will dive
southeast down the back side of the eastern trough. This shortwave
will be accompanied by a surface cold front that will cross the
Lower Ohio Valley. There will be a chance of rain showers with the
front Saturday.

The models diverge regarding the speed and timing of the surface
high in the wake of the front. Will follow the multi model
consensus...which shows southwest return flow developing on Sunday.
This would result in high temps similar to Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Cold air strato cumulus clouds will likely bring MVFR cigs to most
TAF sites during the day. North winds may gust close to 15 kts for
awhile this afternoon. Both winds and clouds will decrease by
22-23Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM