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000
FXUS63 KPAH 051737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Main forecast concern in the near term is temperatures...which are
critical for snow and ice removal.

Overall the model guidance was several degrees too cold
yesterday...especially the gfs. The warmer ecmwf mos verified
better than either the nam or gfs. On this forecast cycle...the
gfs has trended warmer...while the nam has become the coldest
model. The ecmwf has been relatively consistent from run to run
and appears reasonable. Therefore forecast temps will be weighted
toward the ecmwf mos...which is closer to the gfs mos than the
nam.

A complicating factor this morning is the development of
widespread low stratus...which continues to move north into the
kmdh/kevv corridor as of 08z. There has also been patchy dense
fog...especially in se Missouri. This moisture is advecting
northwestward on southeast low level flow...which was completely
missed by all models including the RAP. The timing of clearing
will obviously affect temps today. The nam model soundings
indicate clearing around midday in the kpah area. Since the ecmwf
does not pick up on the low clouds...will subtract a few degrees
off ecmwf mos temps.

The models indicate northeast low level flow will resume this
afternoon and tonight...which is likely to reduce or eliminate the
potential of any stratus/fog redevelopment tonight. There will be
some mid and high clouds arriving as a 500 mb shortwave approaches
the Mississippi Valley.

On Thursday and Thursday night...the 500 mb shortwave will amplify
and evolve into a closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The models are now in excellent agreement on keeping the moisture
with this system to our south. Therefore...the forecast will
remain dry. As far as temps...will stay close to the ecmwf mos
where there is the least snow cover along the I 64 corridor. Will
subtract a few degrees over the deeper snow cover from kpah area
south and west.

Friday will be dry and milder as southerly low level flow
increases and an upper ridge axis forms in the wake of the
departing shortwave. Both ecmwf and gfs mos bring temps up well
into the 50s. The exception is over the deep snow cover in the
kpof area...where the ecmwf is cooler. Will trend forecast a
little closer to guidance...but still remain 5 to 10 degrees lower
than mos over the deeper snow cover in se Missouri.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Small chance of light precipitation remains in the forecast Saturday
through Saturday night as quasi phasing of northern and southern
streams and associated moisture move across the area. 00z ECMWF
seems a bit too strong and an outlier with h5 low coming out of the
srn plains. Dry the rest of the long term. Will transition to a WNW
flow pattern aloft. No noteworthy features to key in on and moisture
marginal for any precip generation. Thus will keep things dry. We
will see warmer temperatures overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Scatter to broken high clouds will stream over the region through
the period...and winds will be northeast under 10kts. The main
question is if/when the IFR ceilings will dissipate over KCGI and
KPAH. Satellite indicates that the cloud deck is eroding on all
sides, but much of guidance holds onto it through the night at
KCGI and at least through sunset at KPAH. Went on the pessimistic
side, and am hopeful that that will lead to a rapid clearing
trend this afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...DRS