Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231716
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite shows high clouds to our west. They are so close, yet so
far away. To explain, they are just west of an upper level ridge
that arcs across the Mississippi river valley. We`ll eventually
see these clouds start to spill into/across our CWA, as surface
high pressure shifts from the Mississippi valley, today, eastward
tonight. The clouds start to spill overtop the flattening ridge
then, so we`ll see more cloudiness Tuesday than today (Monday).

With the clouds, comes moisture at high levels, but also, working
down the column. This will be moreso on Tuesday, as the surface
High has finally shifted eastward, and allowed low level
southerlys to start to pump increasing lower trop moisture into
the area. This will also take smallish pcpn chances slowly upward
as well.

At this writing, it looks like said pcpn chances will peak (in the
short term) Tue night into Wed, as the ridge flattens out,
southerlies deepen, and pieces of upper energy begin to shoot out
of the deepened swly flow aloft, overtop the flattened ridge and
across our area/northward. The end result will be slgt chance
(20s) to low chance (30s) Pops Monday night-Tuesday, gradually
increasing to high chance (50s) by Wednesay.

Daytime highs will be in the lower 80s, and upper 50s lows tonight
will nudge upward into/thru the 60s for the ensuing nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Hate to sound like a broken record yet again but unfortunately, we
will continue to see chance type (scattered) POPs throughout the
extended period. Therefore, there will be only a few changes made in
the long term after looking at the latest data. We will have
unsettled southwesterly flow at 500mb that will persist while we
retain a very warm and humid atmosphere.

Periodic chances for showers and storms will remain through the week
and into the weekend. Thankfully, it will not be raining the entire
time and unless we can lock onto a specific feature aloft, the
greater chances for convection will be during the daytime/early
evening (i.e. diurnally driven). In the same vein, there is not
real high confidence in when and where the activity will be given
the lack of any sfc features as well as any noteable disturbances
aloft to hang your hat on.

Will follow suit with previous shift and not get fancy with the POPs
since it`s too early to be able to say which part of the CWA has
a better chance of seeing rain than the other. However, with that
being said, there does seem to be a bit more consistency regarding
a shortwave trough that will move from the four corners region
into the central Plains Thursday into Friday. After watching this
feature for the past few days, feel more confident to raise POPs
Thursday night into Friday.

Due to the degree of moisture we are dealing with, heavy rain
could be an issue at times but should be localized. As far as
temperatures, they will be slightly above normal with a bit more
uncomfortable humidity levels, with dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

SCT-BKN clouds aoa 12k/ft through the TAF forecast, with light
winds and unrestricted visibility. Isolated showers cannot be
ruled out from 12-18z Tuesday invof KPAH and KCGI.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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