Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231829
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
129 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated cells are beginning to pop on periphery of capped
environ, just to our south. Pool of H7 temps AOA 12C over Ecntl
MO has been inhibiting updraft growth thus far. We`ll see how it
plays out rest of PM hours...may have to carry isolated or widely
scattered mentionable Pop into early evening if scope gets
activated.

Otherwise, mean synoptic forecast pattern remains the same. Broad
high pressure aloft extends across the Commonwealth thru the
remainder of the weekend, with surface ridging underneath,
effectively quashing all but isolated cells growth again tmrw and
also providing another day of extreme heat/humidity.

The High aloft retrogrades to the southwest U.S. by Monday,
however, and this allows some northern stream energy from a
cyclone making Great Lakes passage to spill down the Ohio valley
and into/across the PAH FA. That should be enough to amplify Pops,
esp during the heat of the day, with the mid level capping
loosened and the added benefit of this little bit of energy aloft
vs overall subsidence pattern of preceding days. As a result, more
clouds/convection should impede the extreme levels of
heat/humidity of the weekend being attained in widespread fashion,
although still smothering triple digits are a possibility where
convection does not occur.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 328 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The medium range models are in reasonable agreement in developing a
weakness in the ridge aloft right over our region for much of next
week. This will be a gradual process, so a very minor cooling trend
is forecast through the week. We still will be within a degree or
two of normal on Friday.

Of greater concern though is a weak surface boundary that will be
meandering across the region through the week. As relatively weak
upper-level disturbances stream eastward across the region, periods
of showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop near the boundary
and progress eastward across the area. We will not be lacking for low-
level moisture, so heavy rainfall is likely. Flooding problems will
become more of a concern with each passing round of thunderstorms
through the week. A cluster of strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out for the last half of the week, as the flow aloft improves
a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Scattered to at times broken low VFR bases this pm, will continue
until loss of diurnal fueling. Vicinity mention of CB/Thunder is
possible. Overnight, patchy fog may again offer flight
restrictions to vsbys. Tmrw, we`ll see a repeat of today, with
MVFR bases early, rising to low VFR scattered to at times broken
as we head into the pm hours.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$



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