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000
FXUS63 KPAH 062346
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Updated for 00z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Winter storm going strong at this time, and it is still expected
to come to a rapid end toward sunset over much of the area. Do not
plan any further changes to the amounts or timing with the main
forecast issuance this afternoon. Will let the evening shift make
the call on how much of the area will need the warning beyond 00Z,
so some adjustments may come at that time. All indications are
that all of the accumulating precipitation should be east of the
area by 03Z this evening.

The main issue for tonight will be temperatures, as much of the
area over the deeper snowpack should see temperatures drop into
the lower single digits once the clouds clear out. North winds will
stay up through the night and may result in some wind chills
pushing -10 in a few locations right near sunrise. -10 is the
threshold for a wind chill advisory, but will not be issuing an
advisory at this time. We will continue to monitor this evening.

Undercut guidance significantly over much of the area for Saturday
due to snowpack. Left consensus guidance alone for the far
southeast...where there will be lesser snow/ice cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Models continue to show low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico
at 12z Sunday with an inverted trof extending to areas east of the
PAH forecast area.  This keeps the bulk of the moisture east of our
region as the low moves northeast Sunday into Sunday night.
Temperatures across the entire area Saturday night will be well
below freezing along with our snow/sleet pack.  Soundings indicate
precip will spread northwest across the area after 06z Sunday as
freezing rain, sleet and snow, and amounts will be light, ranging
from around .05 inches over the Pennyrile region to a trace or a
hundredth across southwest Indiana, southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri.

Light wintry precipitation will continue into Sunday, with the
highest amounts again over portions of west Kentucky.  Precipitation
across west Kentucky, extreme southern Illinois and southern
portions of southeast Missouri will be mostly sleet and freezing
rain, with locations north of these areas seeing mainly light snow
and sleet.  Models had been gradually been trending downward on
precipitation amounts, and today continue to show fairly light
amounts overall.  The main area of concern is the Pennyrile region
of west Kentucky, where a couple of tenths of liquid equivalent is
possible.  However, models have gone back to a couple of degrees
warmer for highs on Sunday, which will put this region a little
above freezing Sunday afternoon.  This will melt off any ice, or at
least switch precipitation over to rain around midday Sunday.  We
will need to continue to monitor the next few model runs to see how
the snow/ice pack across our region affects the potential outcome.
For now amounts look pretty light and will only keep a mention of
the potential for some wintry mix in the HWO.

The wintry precip will gradually taper off from west to east Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Our west counties will transition to
snow/freezing drizzle before tapering off, while our eastern
counties will remain more of a freezing rain and sleet mix.  By late
Sunday night, all but our far east and southeast counties should be
dry, with the precipitation clearing those areas by 12z Monday.

For Monday night, GFS tries to bring some precip back north into our
southeast counties, while the ECMWF keeps any precip well southeast
of our area.  Preferred to keep Monday night dry.  For Tuesday and
Wednesday, high pressure over the central and southern Plains will
slide slowly east.  This will give our region dry and cold
conditions.  We will see plenty of sunshine, but fairly persistent
northwest flow will keep cold air in place with well below normal
temperatures.  Late in the work week, winds will finally switch back
to the south and provide a bit of a warm up, but temperatures will
remain below normal through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Snow is quickly moving east as of this writing and the band of
light snow/flurries will be out of the region over the next hour
or two. MVFR cigs are common with the lingering light snow but
cigs will quickly become VFR once the snow ends. Winds will be
northwest aob 10 kts for most of the night and into Saturday. It
appears as though skies will start clearing by 12z-15z...if not
before. Will monitor.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ076>078-
     081>083-085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ087-111-
     112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KYZ001>008-
     010-011-013>016-018>020.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 PM CST this evening FOR KYZ009-012-
     017-021-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...CW