


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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611 FXUS63 KPAH 061721 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances increase today and will continue through next week with daily chances. - Another hot and humid day today with high temperatures in the low 90s and max heat indices near 100 degrees. - Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving into the upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Dry conditions are observed across the region this morning. A few showers and storms occurred yesterday afternoon/evening within a region of localized low level moisture and upper level divergent flow. An elongated upper level low will remain south across the Gulf Coast with a shortwave moving out of the central plains today. This shortwave will move across the region today along with a surface trough axis that is expected to lead to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will be hot with highs in the lower 90s. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will lead to heat index values near 100 degrees today especially in western Kentucky where storms may hold off until later in the afternoon into evening hours. A summertime pattern develops this week with daily chances of showers and storms. A front will stall out just north of the region with sfc troughing extending across the Quad State. Low level convergence and ascent aloft from shortwave troughing will lead to scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday. Later in the week, low heights still remain to the north and west with a moist airmass in place leading to daily shower and storm chances persisting. Risk of severe weather remains low but the flooding threat will need to be watched given the high PW`s and potential for slow storm motions and/or training. Temperatures will cool a bit over the week given the expected increase in rain/storms with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Convection is the primary flight impediment today. Isolated to scattered activity over SEMO and SIL is expected to persist and increase in coverage. Downbursts will be a threat with stronger activity today. A slow spread eastward of the activity is anticipated. Coverage should peak in the mid to late afternoon but some showers and thunder may persist through the early evening. Activity will be moving east about 15 mph so it could impact terminals for a bit before moving on. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...JGG