Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 272341
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW OF RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MADE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE. 19Z SURFACE TEMPS WERE AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60.

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT TONIGHT...AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S
UPSTREAM ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 60S IN SE MISSOURI.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK TO
FORM AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN STALL ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO THE SHORT RECOVERY TIME FOR
THIS DRY AIR MASS...ALONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL MINIMUM IN
INSTABILITY. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

TEMPS AND DEW POINTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW UPWARD CREEP...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK WET...EACH AND EVERY
12 HOUR PERIOD.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SMALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS LIFTED BY UPSTREAM H5 ENERGY. BEYOND THAT...RATHER THAN
TRY AND DISCUSS EACH PERIOD INDIVIDUALLY...SINCE THE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SAME GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION RATHER BRIEF.

OTHER THAN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LONG TERM MODELS...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO HANG UP EITHER OVER OR NEAR OUR CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH A NON-STOP BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRYING TO ACCURATELY TIME THESE
EVENTS THIS FAR OUT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN
EVERY PERIOD FOR NOW. MAYBE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD...
MODELS WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP


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