Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The low clouds are shrinking quickly about the Wabash River, and
should clear the entire area by daybreak. It took the RAP some
time to lock onto the clearing trend from the east in addition to
the south and west, but most recent runs have a good handle on it
and were followed for the sky trends early this morning.

With clearing skies over much of the area overnight, fog formation
is a major concern. KCGI has been bouncing around quite a bit in
the last hour or so, but there is a tendency for a light southeast
wind at least periodically throughout the region, so widespread
dense fog is not a cinch. Will have some patchy and areas of fog
in the grids, but that is mainly in the east and south where winds
are more likely to be calm. Will continue to monitor for possible
Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory issuance closer
to sunrise.

We are still on track for a warm up to above normal levels today,
but guidance has seemed to trend downward a bit for highs. South
winds will increase on Saturday and lead to temperatures in the
mid and upper 80s. There has been concern over the past few nights
that the winds Saturday would be greater than advertised and that
is becoming more obvious this morning. Increased southwest winds
ahead of the front on Saturday and Saturday night and northwest
winds behind it Sunday. We should see sustained winds 10 to 20 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph on both sides of the front. Winds Saturday
night may actually be stronger than on Saturday.

The 00Z models continue to trend faster and drier with the cold
front late Saturday night through Sunday. There is still some
potential for precipitation to reach our northwest border regions
by 12Z Sunday, but it will be trying to dry up as it approaches.
The front will surge through the area Sunday morning, and we will
have good chance PoPs in the morning near and behind it. By Sunday
afternoon there will only be a slight chance in the southeast
with no QPF.

Instability is difficult to find due to a lack of steep mid-level
lapse rates. NAM and GFS soundings eek out a sliver of positive
area with parcels based around 850mb, but the parcels will barely
reach the freezing level, so lightning is not expected. SPC`s Day
3 outlook is in support of keeping thunderstorms out of our area

Gusty northwest winds will quickly spread much cooler and drier
air across the region. Highs on Sunday will be near or below
normal over most of the area. Even with plenty of sunshine in the
afternoon, highs near KMVN may not reach 65 degrees. Lows Sunday
night will span the lower half of the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Models show surface high pressure will settle across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys early in the work week.  Winds
will remain northerly on Monday, which will help keep temperatures
several degrees below seasonal normals.  The center of the high will
shift to our east by Tuesday, and winds will shift to the south.
This will cause temperatures to moderate to near seasonal Tuesday
and Tuesday night, with readings a little above seasonal normals for
Wednesday and Thursday.  Relative humidity time heights show very
dry air in place over the region through the period, so we will
should have clear nights and sunny to mostly sunny days.


Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The main area of low clouds has shrunk overnight and cleared the
TAF sites. However a small patch of MVFR ceilings has redeveloped
right over top of KOWB. Gave that a couple of hours to clear, and
otherwise the TAFs are VFR. With the sun now rising, significant
fog formation is not anticipated this morning. A light southeast
wind will develop later this morning, and that may continue into
the evening if not through the night. The mixing today coupled
with some tendency for a southeast wind overnight should prevent
fog formation tonight.




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