Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151139 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
539 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Above average confidence through most of the short term due to
decent model agreement. In the very last period models begin to
diverge. A soggy period for the most part with temperatures
remaining above normal through the period.

At the beginning of the period a quasi-stationary front lay E-W to
the south of the region. The lower troposphere remains saturated
from the surface through the mid levels. Occasional ripples of upper
level energy tapping into the moisture will continue to produce
overrunning precipitation today, however broad H5 ridging from the
southeast US into the southern plains will serve to deflect most of
the precipitation across the western and northwestern sections of
our CWA. Surface temperatures early this morning a degree or two
warmer than this time last night so don`t think freezing
precipitation will be an issue along our northwest CWA border. With
surface data being so sparse in those areas, it`s hard to know the
temperature in every location, but worse case scenario would be a
narrow sliver of light freezing rain/drizzle along the far western
sections of Jefferson, Perry, and Jackson counties of southern
Illinois and Perry and Bollinger counties of southeast Missouri.
With such limited QPF this morning in those areas and such a small
affected area there would be only minor ice accumulations on trees
and power lines but should cause no travel issues, so no plans to
issue an advisory at this time.

Precipitation chances will drop off tonight as the aforementioned
frontal boundary and deep layer moisture begin to move slowly
northward in response to a developing system over the plains.

Precipitation chances begin to increase from the west Monday with
the approach of a cold front associated with the plains system
lifting northeast toward the Great lakes region. Instability remains
very limited with this system but enough to mention thunder over the
far western sections Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances max out
area wide Monday night as the front makes it about halfway across
our CWA. There seems to be enough instability to mention thunder
everywhere Monday night.

As the front moves across the eastern half of our CWA Tuesday,
precipitation chances will diminish from the west accordingly. Any
instability will limited to the southeast sections of our CWA.

Models in decent agreement Tuesday evening showing precipitation
possibly lingering over the far southeast sections of the CWA,
however late Tuesday night is where models start to diverge. The
NAM12 is the most progressive after midnight showing all
precipitation well to the south and east of our CWA. The GFS wants
to hang up the front just to the south and east of our CWA in the
evening, then develop a wave on the front and lift precipitation
back into the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. The Canadian
seems to be a compromise between the two. Therefore will go with a
compromise and just keep small chances over the far southeast
sections Tuesday evening as well as after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

While forecast confidence is average to start the long term,
confidence decreases to below average with poor model agreement in
the late week period.

Wednesday still appears to offer the best chance of dry weather
during the week as drier air works in behind the Tuesday frontal
passage. Temperatures on Wednesday also look to be halfway decent
for the time of year, with highs in the 50s.

By late week, energy evolving from an upper low over the Baja
peninsula and Gulf of California earlier in the week is progged to
pivot northeast into the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Models continue to demonstrate poor agreement on how and when this
occurs, though timing looks a bit faster than previously forecast.
The end result is at least a chance of showers spreading from south
to north into the forecast area on Thursday, continuing areawide
Thursday night, then tapering off from west to east on Friday.

More certain is the prognosis for unseasonable warmth courtesy of
amplified southwest flow through much of the period. In fact, highs
are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s both Thursday and Friday.
Saturday looks to be even warmer with dry weather to boot and highs
in the 60s. At this point, the next chance of showers appears to
hold off until the latter half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 539 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

With a frontal boundary stalled out to the south of the TAf sites
and plenty of lower tropospheric moisture, IFR/MVFR conditions
will continue through the period. -RA/-DZ is possible off and on
through the first half of the period. Winds will generally be out
of the northeast AOB 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RJP


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