Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 252224

524 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

Models show high pressure at the surface and aloft, centered over
the northeast U.S. into the early part of the weekend. This will
hold a low pressure system just off to our northwest through
Saturday...keeping our region dry. Low temperatures will be a
little warmer each night, but high temperatures will be generally
in the lower 80s each day. Persistent east to northeast flow will
prevent any real increase in low level moisture, so we will
continue to see quite a bit of sunshine and minimal increase in
dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

Models continue to show some semblance of a trof at h5 moving
slowly east across the east 1/2 of the nation Sunday through
Tuesday. Best chance of showers maybe thunder SE part of the CWFA,
lower chances NW Sunday, tapering off from west to east Sunday
night through Monday. Ridging takes over Tuesday through Wednesday
with dry weather forecast. Wednesday through Thursday, large trof
over the west U.S. will slowly expand east. GFS is likely too fast
bringing the front toward the area, and resultant convective
chances. Will throw in a slight chance never the less given return
flow and WSW flow developing aloft west of the departing mid level
ridge. Persistence and latest MOS used for temps.


Issued at 524 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

The 00z tafs will essentially maintain the status quo. Skies will
remain generally clear tonight...except for a few high cirrus
clouds. The potential for shallow ground fog looks about the same as
the past few nights. Surface dew points and temp/dew point spreads
are about the same as 24 hours ago. KCGI will likely report the
lowest visibilities. Since total sky obscurations were reported late
last night at KCGI...will forecast ifr conditions there late tonight
to err on the side of caution. KEVV and KOWB should remain generally
free of fog.

Very few diurnal cumulus clouds formed today...and no significant
change in moisture is expected through Friday. Winds will be nearly
calm again tonight...and an easterly component to light winds is
expected on Friday.




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