Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191144
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Short term weather continues to be somewhat active.

Aside from patchy/areas of dense fog early this morning, only a few
high clouds are expected to track across the region. An MCS located
over north central Kansas at the time of this writing should weaken
considerably on its southeast trek, and should there be anything
left of it later this morning, it should pass by to our south and
west.

Precipitation chances are expected to make their way into the
forecast this afternoon as a short wave pushes a weak cold front
toward the lower Ohio valley. Due to lack of deeper moisture models
not showing much in the way of convection before 18Z, but after that
precipitation chances should begin to increase from the northwest
with the approach of the aforementioned boundary. With decent flow
aloft over a moderately unstable airmass in place, a few storms
could become strong to severe Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours, especially over most of southern Illinois and northwest
Kentucky, and all of southwest Indiana. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary threats.

Models show the short wave outrunning the surface boundary late
Tuesday night, and with H5 heights beginning to increase at that
point, the boundary never quite makes it into our CWA and gets
pushed back to the north and east as a warm front.

Precipitation chances will begin to diminish from southwest to
northeast on Wednesday as an upper ridge over the southern plains
begins to build northeast across our region . This trend will
continue through Thursday as the ridge continues to overspread the
area. At this time it looks like Thursday night will be dry as the
upper ridge takes control.

Unfortunately with the approach of the ridge, the resultant
compression/warming of the air will raise temperatures to near
normal levels (mid 90s) the latter half of the short term period.
This combined with dewpoints around 70 degrees will produce heat
indices near the century mark for most if not all of our CWA both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The long term will be dominated by an upper level ridge over the
Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. This will help to stabilize the
atmosphere as the tropospheric profile undergoes a drying trend.
Consequently, any slight chance for showers and thunderstorms will
likely be shunted north and east of the immediate forecast area
through the weekend.

The main concern during this time will be the heat and humidity as
the hottest weather of the year takes hold. Highs in the mid to
upper 90s will combine with relatively high humidity to push heat
index readings to the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon. Given
the anticipated prolonged nature of this event, I see little reason
why a Heat Advisory will not be issued later this week for peak
afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105 for at least four
consecutive days. Will continue to monitor and adjust forecast as
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Areas of IFR/LIFR fog will dissipate through mid morning with VFR
conditions expected the remainder of the day. Isolated showers and
storms are possible this afternoon and evening, but probabilities
remain too low to include in TAFs. Near calm winds early this
morning will pick up from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots by late
morning and afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...RJP





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