Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 280906
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST THU NOV 28 2013
The short term forecast looks dry with slowly warming temperatures
through the early part of the weekend.
It is a cold morning to start off this Thanksgiving Day. However,
winds have become southerly already early today in response to sfc
high pressure shifting further south of the area and a weak/dry
frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. Southwest winds
will increase during the day and looking at some soundings, we could
see some gusts in the upper teens/low 20s. Low level temps will
respond and rise to above zero degrees Celsius in most areas by late
this afternoon. Therefore, we should see a pretty good jump in highs
for today with full sunshine despite the cold start to the day. The
aforementioned front will pass on through the area during the
evening hours. With no moisture to work with, the only result from
this front will be a simple wind shift to the north throughout the
evening/overnight hours. Winds become more northeasterly by Friday
as sfc high pressure in the upper Mississippi River Valley moves
east across the Great Lakes region.
No real cold air is expected behind this front...as the bulk of the
cold air stays north across the Great Lakes region. However, it will
still be a cold night tonight with lows down into the 20s with the
calm/clear skies overnight. But, a weak upper level ridge will build
overhead on Friday and 850 mb temps will rise even further, which
means we will likely see another a few degree rise in highs with dry
As sfc high pressure moves further east into the New England states
Friday night and into Saturday, winds become southerly in our local
area and increase. Meanwhile, a weak upper level disturbance will be
passing across the area on Friday night/early Saturday with little
fanfare. In fact, we will likely see some areas crack the 50 degree
mark on Saturday afternoon and all available short term guidance
supports this idea.
Clouds will be on the increase across the area ahead of an
incoming frontal boundary from the north on Saturday night...but
limited moisture will mean dry conditions remain in the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST THU NOV 28 2013
At the beginning of the long term period a frontal system washes out
over the area leaving behind weak troughing. This combined with
little to no upper support will make for rather small precipitation
chances on Sunday. In fact, with moisture being so shallow decided
to go with patchy drizzle versus light rain.
Precipitation chances look a little better Sunday night as models
indicate an increase in 1000-500MB moisture as short wave energy
dives southeast across the mid Mississippi valley. Forecast is a bit
tricky on Monday as models differ on the upper air pattern. The GFS
pushes the short wave through Sunday night and shows strong
ridging/rising heights aloft on Monday whereas the ECMWF/GEM show
multiple ripples of energy diving southeast across the area
throughout the day. Decided to go with the majority and keep at
least small chance POPS just in case.
The ECMWF/GEM continue to generate light QPF across the area
Monday night into Tuesday while at the same time showing slowly
rising heights aloft and surface high pressure building across the
area. During the same period the GFS continues to pump up an upper
ridge over the area. Not convinced the ECMWF/GEM scenario will pan
out given the forecast synoptic parameters, so will leave those
periods dry for the time being.
After a brief respite, precipitation chances make their way back
into the forecast Tuesday night as a storm system lifts northeast
out of the central plains. Precipitation chances appear to be
highest on Wednesday as southerly flow ahead of the approaching
system pumps plenty of moisture into the area.
Temperatures are still forecast to remain below normal through the
period, however all precipitation is expected to remain liquid.
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 27 2013
A clipper system will dive out of Canada through the Great Lakes
through the day Thursday. The associated surface front will
approach the area, but weaken as it does so. It should wash out
across the area during the evening. A rather strong gradient will
develop by morning, but it should weaken during the afternoon. A
light south wind will develop before sunrise, and increase to
around 10kts by 15Z. Would not be surprised to see a few gusts
into the teens around midday. The left over boundary will settle
over the area during the evening, but it should result in light
and variable, if not calm, winds throughout the area.