Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181958
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Wvapor loop showed a fairly energetic mid level low over wcntrl IN
moving SE. Area of showers with this fast moving feature over IN
should stay east of our SW IN counties this afternoon. Meanwhile an
expansive area of cu/strato-cu continues to move SSE across our
CWFA. Clouds up across IA quickly dissipated. That gives us a
better indication of how to track the west edge, and what to do
with the progression of the clouds the rest of the day. The cloud
bank moving south across central sections of IL appears more than
diurnally driven. So it may take some time through the late
afternoon and evening to completely rid the clouds, especially east
of the Mississippi.

Otherwise, overnight, once it clears, and with calm winds, cannot
rule out patchy late night frost portions of southern IL, into
southwest IN. This is based on the possibility of reaching coolest
MET guidance numbers, which is what we went with. Even with that,
given soil temps, and marginal conditions, if it does form, it`d be
spotty, and most likely on elevated surfaces that can radiate
"heat" most efficiently. Could be more in the way of dew. No
products will be issued, but a patchy mention will be in the
grid/public forecast in the aforementioned areas. Could be patchy
ground type fog too some areas.

High pressure will move east of the area Sunday. Dry air mass means
little in the way of cloud cover. Sunday night should be dry for
the most part too. However between about 08z-12z Monday, the models
bring a band of moisture into our northern counties (SRN IL, SW
IN), ahead of a mid level trof and embedded PVA, that could result
in isolated light showers. Will carry that slight chance across
the rest of the CWFA through the morning, then end chances Monday
afternoon, though a few sprinkles may linger SE sections (WRN KY)
before the left over dwindling moisture departs. In most cases,
would probably trend dry (been flip flopping a bit on these slight
chances), but given the degree of forcing the models have shown in
the omega and QG fields, slights are warranted. Most areas will
not see much if anything. Dry weather Monday night with high
pressure returning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Beyond Monday night`s cold frontal passage, an extremely uneventful
weather pattern is shaping up through the remainder of the week. To
start the period, an upper level ridge will be centered over the
Plains with a trough over the eastern U.S. Some lingering low
level moisture may result in scattered to broken stratocumulus on
Tuesday, especially in the northeastern 1/3 of our forecast area.

Beyond that, the upper level ridge is forecast to build east into
the Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Late in the
week, an approaching shortwave trough will be deflected to the south
as it runs into the ridge overhead. The resultant cut-off low that
parks itself over the Gulf Coast States next weekend will act to
keep any precipitation potential south of the immediate area.

Temperatures through the period will be near seasonable. Highs will
range through the 60s each day, but may close in on the 70 degree
mark by the weekend. Lows through the period will be in the 40s.
Guidance would suggest little concern for frost formation during
this time. However, Wednesday night may be an exception as we
currently have lows forecast near 40. If this proves to be a few
degrees too warm, then we may need to consider the addition of at
least patchy frost in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Abundant low level moisture, visible sat imagery and trajectories
suggest a expansive cu/strato-cu will persist across the area
through the afternoon. May take some time to scattered in the evening
given 3-4k/ft flow will continue from the north, and with upstream
clouds seen on sat loop. Bases should stay just above vfr/mvfr
thresholds generally 3.5-4.5k/ft. Gusty NNW breezes to continue,
maybe some gusts 15-20 kts. Winds will go near calm tonight, with
the clouds expected to diminish. Maintained the late night fog
possibility, mainly MVFR, from the previous TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







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