Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 202015

215 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface High pressure, currently ridging from the Upper
Mississippi river valley, southward and eastward into the
Commonwealth, will gradually slide to the east and over the middle
Ohio river valley enroute to the Delmarva area by Saturday.

As this occurs, warm and moist air transport will commence, with
satellite showing ample cloudiness from srn AR to the Gulf Coast.
The models actually develop and bring in some warm air
overrunning pcpn as early as tmrw pm, at which time it should be
all liquid. It then spreads this chance across the remainder of
the FA and continues it into/thru Saturday, in a generally warm
sector environ.

As a result, Pops, temps, and winds, will be on the gradual
increase thru the short term ptn of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Main concerns during this period the progression of a pretty potent
storm system that will affect our region over the weekend. This system
will bring a soaking rainfall and a period of gusty winds. A few
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, depending on the exact
track of the surface low.

The main wave will be moving out of the four corners region and into
the southern Plains by 00Z Sunday. During the night on Saturday
night, this wave takes on a negative tilt as it continues to move
northeast toward the area. As this occurs, surface low pressure will
deepen as it tracks northeast across Arkansas and Missouri into the
Great Lakes region.

We should remain fairly dry Saturday evening but rather breezy as
the pressure gradient remains tight. Precipitation will start to
ease into parts of SEMO prior to 06Z Sunday and then begin to
overspread the area after 06Z into Sunday morning. Now, wind fields
are definitely strong and models are indicating sufficient moisture
(dewpoints surging well into the 50s) and instability to warrant
some concern about severe weather by Sunday morning. In fact, as the
sfc low strengthens, the 850 mb jet really ramps up by Sunday
morning. The 00z GFS indicates 850 mb winds 60-70 kt and even
higher. Could be some interesting gradient winds if these winds make
it to the sfc in any way. These winds coupled with MU capes of
around 500 j/kg, and even some hints at some sfc based instability,
spells potential trouble if it all comes to fruition Sunday morning.
This will need to be watched closely.

Once the wave swings through and moves up into the Upper Midwest by
00Z Monday, we will still have the actual sfc cold front to move
through Sunday night. So will maintain high chance POPs. Meanwhile,
another closed low dives south into the northern Plains and ends up
merging with the aforementioned wave. We will remain under the
influence of this merged upper level system Monday and Tuesday
before the trough finally moves east Tuesday night. So scattered
showers will remain a possibility at least on Monday, and dealing
with mainly cloudiness on Tuesday.

As far as temps, we should have another day of mild weather on
Sunday ahead of the front, but then a gradual cool down is expected
during the early part of next week.


Issued at 202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR cigs will be incoming late tonight-tmrw as high
pressure moves east and the next storm system begins to take shape
and approaches, setting the stage for a wet weekend forecast.



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