Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260536
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Clouds will continue to a challenge through tonight. Some breaks
have developed, given NW flow and mixing, though higher clouds
exist. Low clouds extend back to the NW across NE/ECNTRL MO into
IL. This activity will head SE through tonight, Out across SEMO,
the progress is slower given weaker flow and possibly terrain.
Will have lower cloud percentages SEMO. The cloud forecast will
play right into the low temp forecast. Where it clears, there
could be some fog. Best probs are SEMO for now (following the
GLAMP MELD). Have it in for there. Elsewhere, fog will depend on
the decrease in cloud cover. A low confidence call at this point.

Saturday through Sunday will be dry and seasonable with high
pressure in control. Will split the difference with respect to MOS
for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the medium range
models/ensembles were in good agreement on the overall weather
picture across the CONUS, but in less agreement beyond Monday with
the finer details. A vigorous stacked low is progged to spin its way
into the Upper Midwest early next week, and an expansive mid level
trof will dominate the western 2/3rds of the country. Locally, this
means light rain showers are expected starting Sunday night as the
"comma head" of pcpn swings through.

For the main event, a lobe of energy embedded in cyclonic flow is
forecast to swing through the lower MS River valley Monday. There
will be substantial wind aloft and breezy conditions at the surface
while widespread showers surge across our region. Monday evening, it
appears that, at this time, there may be enough focused lift and
instability due to the impulse for a few lightning strikes east of
the MS River. The models have been very sparse with that possibility
up to this point.

The latest model solutions also now bring a rapid end to the pcpn
after midnight Monday, where before pcpn lingered through at least
part of Tuesday. So the weather picture may change again for the
latter half of the week. Currently, model consensus suggests a dry
and rather warm Tuesday, followed by the possibility of more showers
sometime Wednesday mainly for the eastern half of our region, due to
a second impulse in the flow aloft, indicated strongest by the CMC
model.

Height falls and zonal deep layer flow through Friday should result
in a cooldown back to near seasonable temps, and mostly clear
skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Well, clearing has been steadily filling back in with MVFR
ceilings over southeast Missouri, and this trend is likely to
continue overnight. Some IFR or lower visibilities have been
observed already this evening, and will remain possible in areas
that do not see ceilings redevelop.

With this additional cloud development, the main question for the
TAF sites is if/when the MVFR ceilings will clear. In general,
delayed the clearing an hour or two, so clearing will be from late
morning to early afternoon, hopefully. Winds will be light, so
confidence is low in the overall cloud forecast.

Could see some fog formation in the late evening, especially in
areas that clear later into the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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