Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 171754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Updated the grids an hour or so ago. It appears that we will have
quite a solid layer of lower clouds with a dry adiabatic lapse
rate over a good bit of the area east of the Mississippi River
in the 21Z-03Z timeframe. Increased the measurable PoP for snow
showers a bit and spread it back farther west. May need to
increase this again with main package this afternoon. Would not
expect much accumulation, but it will be falling during the
evening rush time for those who are actually commuting today.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) I
Issued at 301 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Snow will continue to rapidly diminish from west to east early
this morning, lingering over west KY and especially the lakes area
eastward through daybreak and shortly after. Probably mostly short
in our warning area (mostly 2-3.5"), though I`m sure we`ll get the
renegade higher snowfall report or two after sunrise. Anyway, no
changes to headlines this late in the game.

Cold is the story today through Tuesday with this next arctic
plunge. Highs today and Tuesday mid 20s to near 30, with cold wind
chills, in the teens during the day, and as low as zero to 5 above
late tonight. May see some cloud redevelopment and flurries later
today, into the early evening. Otherwise quiet weather. Tuesday
night, used a non-diurnal temp trend as southerlies develop, which
should cause steady temps after midnight. Otherwise, stayed at and
below guidance given the decent cold advection and added snow
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

The med range models were in better agreement this time, especially
later in the extended period, than they have been. In the
deamplifying flow aloft, some of the models depicted a srn stream
shrtwv moving by just to the south of the PAH forecast area on Thu
night, accompanied by an inverted sfc trof. This system may develop
some minimal QPF across srn parts of our region. Thermal profiles
and nerly low level winds suggest a wintry mix for mainly wrn KY and
southernmost sern MO. Some pcpn may linger into Fri along the AR/TN
border, but rain is forecast, as temps rise well above freezing.

The initialization blend provided some minimal PoPs for Friday night
as the mid/upper pattern begins to transition toward a swrly flow as
suggested by the GEM. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS runs did not have measurable
pcpn yet. We decided to leave the minimal PoPs in for consistency`s
sake at this time. By Sat, the mid/upper warm air advection pattern
continues to develop ahead of a rather vigorous srn stream low
pressure system, making rain chances seem more likely, especially by
Sat night as the system wraps up and ejects up the MS River valley.
A tstm or two is not out of the question in sern MO by Sun, with
such a dynamic system nearby. Temps are expected to soar into the
mid 50s to around 60 for highs by then, and dewpoints should be
mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Looks like all sites will have a low VFR ceiling through the
afternoon. Already getting flurries at KOWB, and figure that will
be a common thing through the afternoon at KEVV and KOWB. May
regret not putting them in KPAH and KCGI.

Mainly this evening, it appears that some more tangible snow
showers will be possible at KEVV and KOWB. For now went MVFR, but
a brief period of IFR snows is not out of the question.

Gusty northwest winds will subside with sunset, but we will keep a
decent pressure gradient through the forecast. Winds should veer
to nearly due west this evening and a few gusts may return late
Tuesday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS






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