Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

000
FXUS63 KPAH 070533
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1133 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Biggest weather story in the near term continues be with the
cold Canadian air mass that will be invading the region during the
latter part of the week and into the weekend. The front
responsible for bringing the cold air south will cross the region
during the overnight hours. The front will be moisture starved
with little mid level support, so it should bring no other weather
with it besides some cloud cover. After lows in the 20s tonight,
readings on Thursday will struggle to top freezing over portions
of southern IL/sw IN. Temps elsewhere will stay in the 30s despite
a good deal of sunshine. many locations will fall into the
mid/upper teens Thursday night.

After another cold day Friday, an clipper type system will dive
southeast into the Great Lakes region Friday night and Saturday.
Though most of the precip with this system is expected to stay of
to our n/e, will leave small snow chances for Saturday AM...mainly
in climo favored region of southwest Indiana and nw KY. Impacts,
if any, should be minor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Any precipitation from Saturday`s minor event should be to our
east by Saturday evening as a 500mb trough shifts eastward. The
general weather pattern will remain the same through the extended
with the eastern U.S. 500mb trough in place. However, as the early
weekend trough axis lifts northeast heights will rise across the
FA late in the weekend into Monday. At the surface the high
pressure ridging northeast in the FA late in the weekend will give
way to a couple of surface cold fronts moving south across the FA
Monday/Monday night. The GFS yields some minimal QPF over the NE
half of the FA as does the ECMWF while the Canadian is a little
more aggressive/widespread with precip but still minimal with QPF.
Will have low POPs over parts of southwest IN Monday afternoon
and across the FA Monday night except mainly southeast MO.

Limited warm air advection will begin late Sunday allowing Monday`s
temps to reach 5 to 10 degrees higher than Sunday`s. This will be
short lived as tem26ps revert back to colder levels for Tuesday
and Wednesday as the 500mb eastern U.S. trough reasserts its
dominance yielding a cold NW flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The TAFs are VFR. The cold front will push eastward across the
region from 9Z-12z. Winds will become northwesterly behind the
front, but the gustiness will lag a few hours behind the wind
shift. A band of lower VFR, if not MVFR, ceilings will move
quickly through the area immediately behind the front. A few
flurries will be possible with this band of clouds, especially at
KEVV. Gusts will subside in the early afternoon. An occasional
lower VFR ceiling will be possible in the afternoon, but it should
stay mostly scattered. Northwest winds will drop off to under
5kts with sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RS
AVIATION...DRS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.