Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210341

National Weather Service Paducah KY
941 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

Issued at 941 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

Nice band of convection from Springfield to St Louis Missouri
had some lightning earlier this evening, but it has been weakening
as it inches eastward. This was occurring in an area of strong
warm, moist advection in the surface to 700mb layer. As it pushes
east it will run out of its moisture fetch which supports the
decaying trend seen in the last few runs of the HRRR. May see some
sprinkles into the area in the overnight hours, but measurable
rain seems unlikely. Once the upper trough fully develops over the
Kansas City area around 12Z, the whole system will surge rapidly
eastward into and through most of our area through the morning
hours, when most locations will see a relatively short period of

Made mostly cosmetic adjustments to hourly PoP trends into
Saturday morning with latest update this evening. Also nudge winds
up a bit and tweaked temperature and dewpoint trends as well.

UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight.
Meanwhile low pressure will form over the southern Plains as a mid
level system digs ESE from the northern Rockies into the Plains
upon strong jet stream energy from west Canada. By 12z Sat, the
upper trof will extend south from the Upper Midwest with low
pressure near KSTL. Good dynamics with this system with a band of
moisture and associated rains will track into our NW counties
toward morning and across most of the area through 18z Sat. From
18z on the activity from SW IN into the KY Pennyrile will start to
push on east and out of the area. Consensus QPF shows from just
under 0.10" south to near 0.25" north. Raised PoPs to low end
categorical. In the wake of the front by afternoon, momentum
transfer will support NW wind gusts 30 to 40 mph (short of an
Advisory), along with good blyr-500mb CAA. Models show residual
moisture in the afternoon behind the front aob 5k/ft. Additionally
they show increasing downward motion/subsidence. The degree of
cold and moisture made us think about the chance of flurries esp
north 1/2 of the CWFA. But the increasing NVA will preclude us
from a mention. Either way not a concern.

Much colder Saturday night, cold Sunday as stronger high pressure
builds in. A second but weaker mid level s/wv moves across the
area Sunday. But moisture is lacking. So there may be a few
clouds. Quiet and somewhat cold again Sunday night.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

High pressure south of the PAH forecast area Monday will slide
slowly east northeast through mid week. This will give us dry
conditions Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday, gradually moderating to a little above
seasonal by Wednesday with winds becoming southerly Tuesday into

Models show an approaching cold front bringing increasing clouds
Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day. Timing of the onset of
precipitation is still in question, with GFS the fastest spreading
the more significant rain across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Thursday afternoon, and ECMWF holding off until Thursday
night into Friday. With the high pressure system holding fairly
strong to our east, prefer the slower onset and spread eastward of
the ECMWF. Went with just some slight chances for showers in our
far west and north counties Wednesday night, and just chance pops
for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Thursday. Shower
chances will increase significantly Thursday night into Friday
from west to east, with likely to categorical pops area wide
Friday. Models do agree this will a very slow moving system, so
it looks like we will be a in a very wet scenario well into the
holiday weekend. Based on the slow movement, winds will remain
southerly through Friday, so temperatures will continue to be


Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

Winds will veer to the southeast tonight, as a compact and
vigorous storm system approaches the area. Will have a 4 hour
window of MVFR rain showers in a TEMPO Saturday morning/midday at
all sites to attempt to capture the event. An IFR ceiling is
possible with the rain. MVFR ceilings will linger well behind the
front, possibly through the end of the period, mainly east of the
Mississippi River. Winds will become northwest behind the cold
front and increase significantly. Gusts 25-30kts will be possible.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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