Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230551
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The lingering shower activity will continue over the Southeast
Missouri foothills to the I-64 Corridor in Southern Illinois through
the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening hours.

The upper low over Southwest Texas at 200 pm today will become
more negatively tilted and sharpen over eastern Texas/southeast
OK/Western LA/Southwest AR by 6 am CST (12z Sunday). Given the
further south trajectory of this sharp, negatively tilted wave and
the phasing of the wave with the main trough axis, any instability
will be significantly lacking during the 12z-18z Sunday time frame
as the southern wave rotates around the base of the trough into
the WFO PAH forecast area.

However, enough instability/shear/moisture will be in place east
of the Land Between the Lakes, across the Southern Pennyrile
region of West Kentucky, to support some stronger updrafts. Still
cannot rule out an isolated strong storm or two during the late
morning into the mid-afternoon hours on Sunday in this area.

The transition from one time period to another is a little rocky
with respect to PoP/Weather. To provide a somewhat realistic
increase/decrease in the timing of weather from one time period to
another, had to make some sharp adjustments, especially for late
tonight through early Sunday morning.

The most dramatic change in temperatures will late Sunday night
into Monday morning as the front pushes through the area. The
precipitation shield associated with the upper forcing of the
trough should still stay above freezing so that any remaining
precipitation will be in the form of light rain before ending on
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Surface high pressure will move east of our region Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a 500 mb trough pushes east across the FA Tuesday
night. While dry conditions will accompany this first 500mb trough,
the second will have some limited moisture to work with along with
some surface convergence along a cold front that will move across
the FA Wednesday night. As a result will maintain the consensus
small POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night, for what looks to be a
minimal QPF event. The event could end as a light wintry mix across
the east (SW IN and adjacent areas of IL & KY) Wednesday evening.
Will maintain dry conditions in the NW 500 mb flow for Thursday.

The well below temperatures will continue in the NW 500mb flow
through the extended forecast period with Friday offering the
coldest temps. The upper flow flattens out to more of a WNW
orientation by Saturday with some slight moderation in temps
beginning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1151 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As low pressure moves ne toward the region, increasing moisture and
instability will lead to lowering cigs and vsbys. Cigs will remain
VFR through most of tonight before dropping to MVFR around sunrise,
then go IFR by late morning/midday. Some LIFR cigs are possible upon
onset of steady widespread moderate rainfall in the early afternoon.
Some rebound of cigs may occur after sunset. Vsbys are expected to
be MVFR most of the time, but IFR vsbys are possible along with the
LIFR cigs that might occur. Srly winds will settle AOB 10 kts
tonight before some slight strengthening and backing toward the se
during the day Sunday, followed by veering and increasing to AOA 12
kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...RS
AVIATION...DB










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