Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 180204
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
904 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS AND SE
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN SOME
AREAS AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN GRIDS AND ZONES. THE
ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO TRAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30 KNOTS...THE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES INDICATED BY RADAR SHOULD
PERSIST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WEST KY / SW
INDIANA. SOME 25 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND A REPORT OF TINY HAIL
IN ONE SPOT. THAT IS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE AIRMASS CAN
RECOVER TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING BUT IT REMAINS
CAPPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S CONVECTION.
SHOULD THE AIRMASS RECOVER OVER SOUTHERN MO AS SOME MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL...COULD HAVE A FLARE UP FROM NRN ARKANSAS INTO SE
MISSOURI MOVING NE BY LATE DAY / SUNSET...CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT STEERING SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN...THE OVERALL SEVERE
CHANCE SEEMS LIMITED...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ZERO...GIVEN THE STRONGER
WIND FIELDS REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS RECOVER WILL CONTINUE TO
SHORTEN THIS AFTERNOON. WE`LL SEE HOW IT PANS OUT.

MAINTAIN POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL SE SHIFT
WITH TIME AS A FRONT ENTERS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SCT/NUMEROUS COVERAGE. POPS WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND
THE LATEST MODEL/MOS BLEND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AT BEST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.

THE FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. THE SOUTHERN TRACK HAS BEEN
THE PREFERRED BUT NOW THE 00Z SUN ECMWF HAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA.
EITHER WAY...WET OR DRY...ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BE
ABSENT THUNDER ALTHOUGH A CLAP OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. AS FOR THE WEEKEND IT TO IS A
LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM
COMING IN NO LATER THAN SUNDAY ALTHOUGH AS TYPICAL THE GFS IS
LITTLE FASTER. AT THIS TIME WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD OFF ANY POPS
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY END UP PUSHING IT BACK
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTER SUNRISE. LI`S GO NEGATIVE WITH CAPES OVER 1K
J/KG2 ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALTHOUGH SATURATED
ALOFT. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER THE EXTENDED INIT AND
COLLABORATION ON TIMING FOR EACH SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW WILL REMAIN AS
CONSERVATIVE AS POSSIBLE WITH THE DURATION OF POPS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MUCH COOLER ECMWF WHICH IS
BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MOS IS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE KCGI AND KPAH AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING. NOT AS SURE IF/WHEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH KEVV AND
KOWB...BUT IF SO IT WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DID NOT MENTION TS THERE.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME TS LINGERS WELL INTO THE DAY.
DEFINITELY ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR CEILING FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER
10KTS. THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT MAY REACH THE TERMINALS BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS



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