Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

FXUS63 KPAH 150738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
238 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Warm southerly low level winds will be the main story in the
short term. Plentiful low level moisture will be advected north of
our region today, followed by drier air tonight through Monday

The initial concern early this morning is primarily aviation-
related. Extensive low stratus and areas of fog covered much of
Illinois, Missouri, and extreme west KY as of 07z. The low-level
moisture is deepest over southern IL and southeast MO, where it
may take most of the day to clear out. Parts of western KY were
still clear as of 07z, and the duration of low clouds will be
shorter there. Highs today will range from the lower 70s in the
cloudier areas northwest of the Ohio River to near 80 in the
southern Pennyrile region of west KY.

Very dry mid-level air will overspread the region this evening and
persist through Monday. 500 mb ridging over the Southeast will
expand northward into the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday.
The combination of sunshine and strong south low-level flow will
raise highs well into the 80s on Monday. Record highs Monday are
in the mid to upper 80s, and forecast highs are right near the

The only other weather of note is gusty surface winds during the
daytime hours Sunday and especially Monday. The Bufkit momentum
algorithm indicates gusts of 20 to 25 knots are likely Monday.
This is in good agreement with the gusts in the forecast grids.
The gfs has been consistently indicating mixing to 850 mb, where
winds will be around 30 knots.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The long term forecast will follow closely WPC`s approach, given
varied deterministic solutions especially Wednesday through Friday.
There`s considerable spread to within the ensemble suites individual
members. Thus, overall confidence is low with respect to the long
term forecast. We feel WPC`s PoPs better depict this uncertainty
than our inherited auto populating blend grids that provide way too
much detail and resolution for such a pattern.

With respect to the details, a front should pass through the region
sometime Wednesday. How fast and far SE will depend on the evolution
of digging energy into the Rockies 12z Tue-12z Wed. The EC/ECENS
solutions remain faster and more progressive with this evolving
energy (an open trof solution) beyond Wednesday. Meanwhile the GFS
slows this system down to a crawl, with some solutions closing it
off to our west. The CMC is slower than the EC as well, and closes
the system off, though farther east than the GFS.

Given such uncertainty, PoPs will remain low after Wednesday but
persistent until we can get a handle on this system. We warmed up
temps a degree or two ahead of the front through Wednesday. After
that, used an even blend of MOS and existing numbers.


Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Main concern through the early morning hours will be areas of
LIFR cigs and vsbys in fog and stratus clouds. A moist south wind
flow will gradually increase through the next 24 hours. The wind
should be an inhibiting factor for dense fog once the wind gets
going. Areas of low stratus with cigs below 500 feet will persist
until the sun acts to burn it off after 14z.

Once the sun goes to work on the stratus, low level moisture will
mix out. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds are expected in the
afternoon, with some mvfr cigs possible in the afternoon. The
cumulus will disspate around sunset with loss of daytime heating.
Winds will be south around 10 knots during the day, but lighter at


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...MY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.