Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 231721
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ALONG/IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
FA. SOME OVERRUNNING/UPGLIDE NOTED INTO SEMO IN PARTICULAR...WITH
STILL HIGH PW`S AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL WATCH THAT AREA
IN PARTICULAR...ESP AS RIPPLE/UPPER WAVE MIGRATES ACROSS LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...WE SHOULD SEE PCPN AXIS SHIFT
SOUTH/EAST THRU THE DAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL MORE EARNESTLY PUMP IN SOME DRIER AIR. UNTIL THEN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL LINGER.

ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW CLIMO TEMPS/DEW POINTS TODAY...BEFORE
TRANSITION BACK TO LATE JULY CLIMO BEGINS TMRW AND PICKS UP STEAM
HEADING INTO WEEKEND. WE`LL SEE REMAINS OF 80S/60S RETURN TO
90S/70S WITH NUDGE UPWARDS IN HUMIDITY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THE PREDICTED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS LARGELY A
CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP A LID ON SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HOWEVER...AS OBSERVED LATELY...THE SHEAR QUANTITY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IN ADDITION
TO WHERE WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER
90S. THE HOT TEMPERATURES PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH DAY...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...SAVE FOR PORTIONS
OF SRN IL WHERE DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN AND CLEARED LOWER CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS CLEARY EVIDENT FROM BETWEEN KCGI/KFAM...TO
JUST EAST OF KPAH TO NEAR KHOP. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER MAY RESULT IN DECENT
FOG AT KCGI/KPAH AND NEARBY LOCALES. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HERE. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH AT KEVV AND KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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