Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 271734
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Forecast in the short term is mostly unchanged. Warm and breezy
today as a nice pressure gradient sets up. Very dry air mass, with
only a few higher clouds expected. Dew points should come down a
bit, given 00z upa data shows lower h9/h8 points to our SSW. Went
on high side of guidance which is in essence a persistence
forecast.

Front will be on our door step 12z Tuesday with convective chances
arriving after 06z over the west part of the CWFA. Until then, a
dry and mild start to the night. Temperatures will remain quite
mild as winds stay up and clouds gradually increase. Most of the
rain will hold off til Tuesday across the Pennyrile region of KY.

Categorical PoPs for showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday,
diminishing by afternoon SEMO, into southern IL. The NAM and ECMWF
remain slightly slower solutions compared to the GFS. Not a major
discrepancy though. Will linger small chance PoPs just north the
TN/AR state lines into Tuesday night, especially the evening
hours. High pressure will result in dry and cooler weather
Wednesday, though only slightly below late October norms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Good agreement among the operational models and their ensembles
lends higher than average confidence in the long term portion of the
forecast. Main concern during this time will be the potential for
frost and perhaps freezing temperatures Friday and Saturday nights.

Starting with Thursday, clouds will be on the increase as a weak
weather disturbance dives southeast from the Northern Plains in
northwest flow aloft. The substantial moisture with this feature is
forecast to remain above 10kft, so any light precipitation should
tend to evaporate before reaching the ground. A few sprinkles are
not out of the question though, particularly Thursday afternoon and
evening.

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern is forecast to persist
into the weekend. An upper level ridge will develop over the middle
of the country as a trough deepens in the east. Models have backed
off on any notion of precipitation potential on Halloween as the
core of high pressure slides south from Canada. The result should be
dry and unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

The first widespread killing frost--and perhaps even a freeze in
some areas--appears likely Friday and Saturday nights. The main
question will be whether the pressure gradient relaxes enough to
allow winds to subside both nights. This appears more likely Friday
night, but Saturday night is in question as southeast winds begin to
pick up on the back side of the departing high. At this time, we
have lows both nights forecast in the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Strong south southwest winds will occasionally gust over 25kts
this afternoon before settling down to around 10kts near sunset.
Winds will veer slightly toward sunrise as a band of showers
moves into the region. Not sure how solid the precipitation will
be, but figure on an hour or two, at least, of the showers in the
vicinity of each terminal as the area moves eastward Tuesday morning.
Would be surprised to see conditions lower than MVFR levels with
the precipitation. An MVFR ceiling may linger for awhile behind
the precipitation. A stray lightning strike is possible within the
band of showers, but the expected coverage is too sparse to
mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS






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