Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI AND
KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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