Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260915
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER TEXAS TODAY WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING STRONGER WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE
SOME MEAGER MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS AND LAS VEGAS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT SOME
ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY PASSING SHOWER OR STORM.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHILE COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AND ACTUALLY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING SOME TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
FLATTENED AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT MOVE IN. DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT AND A DEEPENING
LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL YIELD SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS CLOSE TO THE TX BORDER. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THE WINDS MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AROUND CQC AND LVS...BUT THE PREVAILING
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LONG-LIVED OR STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF ANY ADVISORY STATEMENT. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS/STORMS ADDING A LOCALIZED GUST
ENHANCEMENT THREAT TO CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE NUMEROUS ECHOES LIGHT UP ON THE RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT MINIMAL AS MOST OF THIS WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING GROUND.

TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR JET WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MONDAY. THIS COULD KEEP SOME SCANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
GOING TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...MOSTLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN SPILLING INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY...SHIFTING WINDS AND COOLING THINGS DOWN. A
SLIM CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND MARGINAL FRONTOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. SOME
STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...NAMELY ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAPITAN/SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL HAVE IMPACTS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT ORIENTED
FAVORABLY FOR A SIGNIFICANT GAP/CANYON WIND.

INTO TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH...AND WHILE THIS FLOW MAY BE PERTURBED OR
UNSTABLE...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH NO THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL JUST A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESSENTIALLY THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD WITH A SOMEWHAT
PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME
WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT ALOFT AND SLOWER WIND SPEEDS.

A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER NM ON THURSDAY WITH
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES...LIGHT BREEZES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WITH STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARRIVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH. EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
PATTERN THAN ITS GFS COUNTERPART...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FORMER IS A BIT SLOWER. THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION
COULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO DIG INTO SOME BETTER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUIDANCE WINDS HAVE RATCHETED UPWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS TO
TUCUMCARI REGION. OVERALL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WHERE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THE GRIDS.
ALSO INCREASED WINDS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY FROM
CLINES CORNERS SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING.

MODELS AGAIN UNDER FORECASTED THE DRIER DEW POINTS SATURDAY...AND
TWEAKED THEM A LITTLE DOWNWARD FROM GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST
FOR TODAY...BUT SOUNDINGS/SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ANTICIPATED OVER NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED
DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES TO ADD
TO THE GRADIENT/MIX DOWN WINDS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EASTERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST HAINES LOW MOST AREAS...WINDS AND FORECAST
MARGINAL MIN RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...ESPECIALLY IF DEW
POINTS END UP A BIT LOWER BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LOW FORECAST HAINES AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MIN RH
FORECAST...BUT SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RH RECOVERIES
SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.

COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY SO DESPITE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...NOT
ANTICIPATING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THE FRONT MAY SPARK ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING DISTURBANCE TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BUT DRY. IN FACT
DEW POINTS CRATER EARLY TUESDAY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME COLDER AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE SEASON EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE EAST AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THANKS TO A STRONG BUT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE FORECAST FOR
MID WEEK.

VENT RATES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MID WEEK
RATES WILL WORSEN WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF POOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN IS SHUNTED EASTWARD DUE TO A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW...AND RESULTING ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS A
DECENT LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSING THE N AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD
TRIGGER ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LATEST MODELS ARE FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO ADD TO
TAFS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
POINTING TOWARD MOSTLY DRY BUT STILL CONVECTIVELY GUSTY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A LEE TROUGH AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL YIELD GUSTIER SFC WINDS IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  74  41  62  32 /  10  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  68  32  60  23 /  20  20   5   0
CUBA............................  71  37  62  29 /  10  20   5   5
GALLUP..........................  71  37  63  27 /  10   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  69  36  61  29 /  10   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  73  41  66  29 /  20  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  71  41  64  32 /  10   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  77  41  72  33 /  10   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  65  30  59  21 /  20  30  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  43  64  37 /  10  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  73  41  67  33 /  10  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  68  36  62  27 /  10  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  58  27  50  21 /  10  20  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  63  23  57  15 /  10  10  20  10
TAOS............................  69  36  64  24 /  10  10  10   5
MORA............................  69  41  63  29 /  10  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  76  39  69  30 /   5  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  71  44  64  35 /   5  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  75  43  67  34 /   5  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  76  50  68  42 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  54  70  46 /   5   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  45  72  35 /   5   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  46  72  37 /   5   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  44  73  34 /   5   5   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  79  49  73  39 /   5   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  82  50  77  41 /   5   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  74  46  66  34 /  20  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  75  47  67  38 /  10  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  77  40  69  30 /  10  10   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  73  45  66  33 /  10  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  49  68  38 /  10  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  79  52  75  45 /  10   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  71  46  68  38 /  10  10   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  77  38  63  26 /   0   5  20  20
RATON...........................  79  40  66  27 /   5  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  77  42  68  29 /   5  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  74  45  69  29 /  10  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  84  51  63  35 /   0   0  20  20
ROY.............................  80  47  69  34 /   0   5  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  85  53  75  38 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  83  53  76  37 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  54  78  36 /   0   0   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  85  52  78  40 /   0   5   0   5
PORTALES........................  85  52  78  41 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  53  78  41 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  87  53  82  45 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  81  51  77  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELK.............................  77  49  72  41 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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