Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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297
FXUS65 KABQ 140628 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1228 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Wly flow aloft will continue during the next 24 hrs. Lcl MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys could develop aft 09Z east of the Pecos Valley and
persist until 15Z. Afternoon/evening convection will favor the
southwest and south-central mts and ern plains. Isold short-lived
MVFR cigs/vsbys possible from storms.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...812 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017...
.UPDATE...
Storms have been slowly decreasing over ne and east central NM as
they move to the southeast, therefore WW450 for ern NM has been
cancelled. Adjusted evening pops a little in the east central to
match the remaining track of storms there. Updated ZFP has been
transmitted.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will impact portions of
northeast and east central New Mexico through the evening. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms. A few
severe storms will remain possible over eastern New Mexico on Monday
and Tuesday, but the remainder of the state will trend drier. Even
drier conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday, though
a wind shift across the northeast will keep a few storms in the
forecast. The drier air over the state will allow minimum
temperatures to trend a little cooler as well, especially over the
west. Moisture may be on the upswing early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The right entrance region of the upper level jet is currently over
northeast NM as a weak surface low is centered in the vicinity of
KLVS. The resultant low level southeasterly flow over far NE NM is
advecting very moist dewpoints onto the high terrain. LAPS analysis
indicates a very unstable atmosphere (Surface based CAPE over 4000
J/KG and LI`s from -8 to -9C) along the OK/TX border across eastern
NM. 0 to 6km bulk shear values are also between 30 and 40kt in this
area. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, have already developed
and will continue to develop and shift southeastward through the
remainder of the evening. As these storms move into the more unstable
air, expect more of them to become severe.

Going into Monday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the high terrain Monday afternoon, then generally shift
eastward. An area of convergence is noted across eastern NM where a
psuedo-dryline may set up, particularly if the NAM is correct. Plenty
of instability will remain in place east of this boundary, so if
storms do develop, a few severe storms will not be out of the
question.

By Tuesday, much drier air will be moving over NM and mixing to the
surface. Dewpoints will significantly drop across central and
western areas and convection will be significantly limited. There
are some differences between models with respect to how far east the
moisture will mix out. Think the GFS may be too bullish with drying
out the low levels across eastern NM, so have left a chance for
thunderstorms. Again, not out of the question to see a few severe
storms.

Wednesday and Thursday will trend even drier as the mid level dry
slot shifts overhead. However, a weak wind shift across northeast NM
will keep storms a possibility. Another wind shift will be possible
on Friday across the NE, but the west will remain dry.

After a mostly dry mid to late week period, moisture looks to return
early next week as an upper high builds over Texas and a weakness or
trough develops over California

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level jet crossing NM today is interacting with abundant
low level moisture and instability to produce scattered showers and
storms. Activity will move east/southeast and be capable of locally
heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty outflow winds. Overnight recoveries
will be very good to excellent all areas with lingering cloud cover
overhead. Monday will feature one last day of moisture recycling
before the upper jet forces much drier air into NM. The greatest
coverage again will be along and south of Interstate 40 and over
the northeast plains.

A deep-layer dry intrusion will shift east across the southwestern
U.S. Tuesday through Friday. This will trend humidity values much
lower areawide and winds will become noticeable more breezy during
the late afternoon. Min humidity values may fall below 10% west of
the Cont Divide Wednesday, Thursday, and even Friday. Overnight
recoveries will however still be good most areas with the higher
soil moisture values in place. Max temps will trend a few degrees
warmer and min temps will trend cooler. Just enough moisture may
linger across the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area for a
few storms each afternoon. Vent rates will be excellent for the
entire area.

Extended guidance is hinting that moisture will seep northward by
Saturday as the upper high shifts east and an easterly wave crosses
Mexico. A couple model runs from this morning show a return to much
wetter conditions for a couple days early next week.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

11



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