Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 102352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS SPRAWLED FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BRINGING A MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL
NM STARTING BETWEEN 11/00Z AND 11/07. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SUNNY DAYS AND STARRY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BRIEF COOL-DOWN
IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME
A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...WITH A
NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 77 DEGREES SET AT CLAYTON (OLD 76/1972).
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN HIGHS THURSDAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
TODAY`S...BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY...
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING. OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 12Z ECMWF MOS.
FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS
MODELED BY THE 18Z NAM12 TO NUDGE WESTWARD FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS GOING INTO SATURDAY...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A SHORT-LIVED COOLING
TREND GOING THROUGH MONDAY. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
WITH MORE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND LEAD
TO A RENEWED WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHING
ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION. TIME WILL TELL.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
SPOTTY FAIR TO GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL POOR
RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ENTRENCHED TO OUR WEST WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND MAKE AN ATTEMPT. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FOR A COUPLE OF
WEAK FRONTS...WHICH BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR
LOFTY DEVIATIONS FROM AVERAGE. OTHERWISE...SOME HINT OF RETURN FLOW
WITH THE FRONTS...SO SOME SWINGS IN MAX RH ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH HAINES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST
AND SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME MIN HUMIDITIES
OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...BUT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. MOUNTAIN TOP NW
WINDS DO INCREASE SATURDAY AND MORESO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGER DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT NOT
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OR BOOST VENT RATES INTO
WIDESPREAD GOOD OR BETTER VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONTINUING THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN. WINDS MAY
INCREASE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A COUPLE OF
POTENTIALLY WETTER DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...IT/S TOO SOON TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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