Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROGRESS EAST TODAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PRODUCING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON
TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LAST DAY OF THE MONSOON SEASON. WITH
THE DRIER AIR COMES LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES AND LARGER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. A SECOND TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A
WARMING TREND WILL KICK-OFF ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES EAST AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NV/UT STATE LINE. BOTH 00Z AND 06Z
NAM12 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTAINS A SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT
INCLUDES MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...
BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 RUNS SHOW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT BACKED UP TO THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE`VE ADDED A MENTION OF SEVERE A TAD FURTHER WEST
OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE IMPACT WINDOW FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
SANTA FE METROS IS BETWEEN 1-5 PM MDT. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PERSIST BEYOND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE-IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE 2014 NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON COINCIDENT WITH THE LAST DAY OF OUR LOCALLY
DEFINED MONSOON SEASON. AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCING FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES OVER. THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
EVEN SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW.

EVEN DRIER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH EVOLUTION
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AREAWIDE.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA AND UTAH
WILL SPEED UP AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NM
TODAY WITH A PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRIER/COOLER PACIFIC AIR FILLING INTO THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...STORMS WILL BE DECREASING THERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO CENTRAL TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE BY THE EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. MINIMUM RH WILL FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN WEST CENTRAL
ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT ELSEWHERE
VALUES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. GUSTY AND PERHAPS SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MOST CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES TO OBSERVE
SOME RAINFALL...BUT THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
AMOUNTS SOME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF NM
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS QUICKLY.

BY TUESDAY MORNING DRY AND COOLER AIR LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN FACT...SEVERAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
IN WESTERN TO NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY OBSERVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY DAWN TUESDAY...A CATALYST FOR SEASONAL CURING OF
FUELS. INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...BREEZES WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AT THE SURFACE/20FT LEVEL WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INHIBITING ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM RETURNING. THE FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND THE DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BE REINFORCED IN NEW
MEXICO WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONT. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH
THIS TIME...AND POOR VENTILATION MAY CROP UP BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN
ZONES. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWELL OVER
THE BAJA AND GREATER SOUTHWEST STATES...SUPPRESSING STRONG WINDS AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NM HAS DIMINISHED...THOUGH
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ANY TAF
OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. KLVS WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST IMPACTS...WHILE KTCC/KROW IMPACTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. NEXT LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING OVER NM ON
MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM...AS EARLY AS 18Z. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OR NE AT 20 TO 35KT.
SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AOA 50KT AND LARGE HAIL IN
EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTN/EVE.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  41  72  42 /  30   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  67  34  68  34 /  60  10   0   5
CUBA............................  69  37  71  41 /  50  20   0   0
GALLUP..........................  69  34  70  38 /  20   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  68  33  68  37 /  20   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  72  37  72  39 /  20   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  71  41  72  43 /  20   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  77  46  78  51 /  10   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  65  30  66  32 /  70  20   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  71  41  71  44 /  60  20   0   0
PECOS...........................  69  40  69  43 /  70  50   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  67  33  68  35 /  60  40   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  63  29  63  31 /  60  40   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  65  27  66  28 /  70  40   0   0
TAOS............................  68  33  69  34 /  60  30   0   0
MORA............................  66  37  67  38 /  70  40   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  74  41  74  43 /  60  30   0   0
SANTA FE........................  72  42  72  45 /  60  40   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  75  41  74  43 /  50  30   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  77  50  76  51 /  50  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  51  77  52 /  40  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  47  79  49 /  40  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  79  50  78  51 /  40  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  47  80  49 /  40  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  78  49  78  51 /  40  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  81  52  81  52 /  30  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  45  74  47 /  70  30   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  77  46  75  48 /  60  30   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  42  74  42 /  60  50   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  72  47  72  45 /  60  50   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  49  73  49 /  60  40   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  55  77  53 /  40  30   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  72  51  73  48 /  60  50   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  73  43  72  43 /  70  50   0   0
RATON...........................  74  41  73  39 /  70  40   0   0
SPRINGER........................  75  42  74  40 /  70  40   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  43  71  40 /  70  50   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  77  52  78  48 /  40  70   0   0
ROY.............................  74  48  75  43 /  60  50   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  79  54  81  47 /  50  60   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  78  53  80  48 /  50  60   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  82  57  83  51 /  30  70   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  57  82  55 /  20  40   5   5
PORTALES........................  79  59  83  56 /  20  30   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  57  82  53 /  30  60   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  81  60  87  55 /  20  20   5   5
PICACHO.........................  77  55  82  52 /  40  30   5   5
ELK.............................  75  54  78  51 /  60  30   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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