Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 300018 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
518 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
The last few straggling showers are slowly waning this evening.
Much of the low/mid level clouds should continue to dissipate
this evening. Though, with snow on the ground across much of
northern and western NM, there does exist a small chance of low
clouds or fog developing, but drier air moving in may mitigate
this. Outside of any fog/low clouds across the north and west
overnight, VFR conditions will prevail.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will exit the area after sunset. Very cold air will filter
into the region with near zero readings north and west. Teens and
20`s are expected for the south and east. Wednesday and Thursday
will feature a slow warming and drying trend but temperatures will
still be below normal. Another cold front will arrive Friday with
snow possible across southern areas through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low center over eastern NM will continue pulling away from
the area this evening. Wrap around terrain dominated snows across
central and western NM will bring another inch or two til sunset
then taper off thru midnight. Convective rain/snow/graupel showers
across the east will dissipate quickly aft sunset. Strong surface
high pressure with clearing skies and very dry air on top of snow
pack will allow for the coldest air of the season.

Wednesday thru Thursday will feature a brief warming trend but
temps will still remain 5 to 15F blw normal. The plains will see
the greatest warming with downslope breezes increasing Thursday.
Overnight lows will remain cold both nights.

Confidence Friday thru the weekend is increasing slightly. A back
door front will slide SW across the plains and thru gaps in the
central mt chain. Meanwhile, an upper trough with two vort lobes
will approach from the NW. One piece of energy may focus SN over
the San Juans Friday night while the other digs well south and
west of NM into northern MX. This wave will attempt to shift east
and spread RA/SN over southern NM thru Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There may be a few lingering showers in the northern mountains
tonight as an upper level low pressure system exits eastward from
the state, but little or no additional snow accumulation is
expected.

In the wake of the upper low, dry northwest flow aloft will
gradually become more zonal as a new upper level trough deepens over
the western states. High temperatures will vary from a few to around
15 degrees below normal Wednesday through Sunday. The deepening
trough over the western US will form a closed low west of NM on
Friday, when it will also begin drawing a moist return flow
northwestward over the state. The moisture should be enough to
trigger a wintry mix of precipitation that may persist through
Saturday across the southeast half of the fire weather forecast
area. The operational GFS and ECMWF runs now agree that the upper
low will drop southward to the southern Gulf of California through
Saturday night, before exiting eastward across northern Mexico into
Texas Sunday through Monday. This track should relegate any wetting
precipitation to the central mountains of the forecast area and
eastward across the east central plains this weekend.

Along with the cool temperatures, vent rates will trend downward
through mid week with widespread poor ventilation expected Thursday
through the weekend.  An exception will be Friday across central and
eastern areas, where there will be ventilation improvement as the
moist return flow initially barrels in from the southeast.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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