Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS65 KABQ 170946 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
346 AM MDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary upper air disturbance straddling the New Mexico
Colorado line will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm
chances across northern and western portions of the area today
through Thursday.  The driest and least active region will continue
from the east-central and southeast plains to the south-central
mountain region. Storm coverage will trend downward Friday before
a seasonably strong backdoor cold front surges southward early in
the weekend bringing cooler temperatures and renewed precipitation
chances especially for central and eastern areas of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A tale of two halves the next couple of days with the northwest
half of NM favored for SHRA/TSRA. Friday will be a transition
day, better chances for precip east, before a fairly strong
backdoor cold front drops into the region this weekend. Another
early fall- like set up for places like the Moreno Valley in
northcentral NM.

Water vapor imagery showing a well-defined cyclonic circulation
straddling the NM/CO line early this morning. The NAM has been the
most consistent in translating this feature very slowly east then
northeast next 24 hours and also has done quite well with
QPF/convective precip placement past 24-36 hours. Light showers
once again developing ahead of the trough axis from just northeast
of Albuquerque to Raton and Capulin as region of best forcing for
upward motion has shifted eastward from yesterday. Otherwise,
beneath a broad cyclonic westerly flow aloft, another decent crop
of diurnal SHRA/TSRA expected with the higher terrain of the west
and north favored. Overall coverage and vigor of activity may be a
bit reduce from Tuesday and it may be tough to get good coverage
along the Rio Grande Valley corridor particularly from ABQ
southward given slower storm motions and steering winds nearly due
west to east. Influence of the slowly departing slow wanes on
Thursday, but weak steering flow from NW to SE is actually more
favorable for the RGV and central high plains. Expect less
coverage across the Four Corners/NW 1/4 as drier air works in. The
eastern plains to the south-central highlands and mountains will
remain the least active and driest region the next couple of
days.

Going into Friday,  another weak low indicated to noodle east or
southeast near the Four Corners per the NAM.  This could be a piece
of the upper low currently spinning over then northern Great Basin.
Either way, models show much drier air nosing into NW-NC New Mexico
on strengthening NWLY flow where PWAT values less than 1/2 inch
indicated by Friday evening. Vigorous shortwave trough dropping
through the central/northern Rockies will send a strong backdoor
front for the season into northeast NM late Friday night, which is
a bit faster than previous runs. The latest ECMWF is still a bit
faster than the GFS but both indicate a decent easterly push to
the Divide Sunday morning. Thus, after a downward trend in storm
coverage many areas on Friday it looks like an upward trend for
areas east of the central mountain chain on Saturday and central/western
areas on Sunday when we would not rule out strong to briefly
severe convection between the Divide and RGV. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humidity has trended higher this morning after better coverage of
wetting rainfall Tuesday. Overall conditions today will be a near
repeat of yesterday. The weak upper wave that moved across NM has
pushed into southern CO and left behind a remnant moisture axis from
southwest to northeast. This will be the focus for another crop of
showers and storms today with brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions
will average 15 mph from southwest to northeast. Tonight will again
will be similar to this morning with overall very good to excellent
recoveries and light terrain dominated winds.

A high center will take shape over southern AZ Thursday with the
effect of changing steering flow over NM from west to east. Temps
and humidities will be similar to today as will the coverage of
storms with brief local heavy rainfall.

The upper high will shift east along the Mexico/NM border Friday and
drag an area of dry air over the Great Basin into northwest NM by
late in the day. The focus for storms will shift into northern and
northeast NM where a weak back door cold front will begin flirting
with the area. Storm motions will be northwest to southeast. Any
storms that fire up across the west will be more dry in nature with
strong outflows.

A period of stronger moisture contrast will develop from west to
east across the state as drier air settles into the west and a moist
back door front slides into the plains Saturday and Sunday. Temps
will trend below normal across the east through the weekend as the
coverage of wetting rainfall and cloud cover increases substantially.
Diurnal temperature swings across the west will increase with the
dry air. Gap winds are also likely for the RGV as the front shifts
west Saturday night.

Next week looks to potentially feature a much larger area of wetting
rainfall as tropical moisture advances north from western Mexico.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Convection has largely wound down with remnant SH across NC and NE
areas. Impacts to terminal sites are not very likely rest of the
overnight. Another crop of SH/TS is expected Wed aft/eve. Decided
to go a little more bullish with VCTS for a 2 hr span at many of
the western/central terminal sites. Also used VCSH prior and after
the VCTS period. Bottom line...combination of increased
moisture/instability and lift should aid in storm dvlpment.
Outflow wind would remain the biggest impact and can travel many
miles from the storm origin. 50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  59  87  58 /  10  30  10  10
Dulce...........................  80  48  80  47 /  50  30  30  20
Cuba............................  81  51  80  49 /  50  40  40  30
Gallup..........................  86  54  84  53 /  40  30  50  30
El Morro........................  79  51  77  50 /  50  40  50  40
Grants..........................  83  53  81  53 /  50  30  40  30
Quemado.........................  81  55  79  53 /  50  40  50  30
Glenwood........................  89  62  88  62 /  40  40  30  30
Chama...........................  74  44  75  44 /  60  40  50  40
Los Alamos......................  77  58  78  59 /  50  30  40  40
Pecos...........................  79  50  80  50 /  40  30  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  75  50  77  49 /  60  40  50  30
Red River.......................  66  42  68  43 /  70  50  60  40
Angel Fire......................  71  38  73  39 /  70  50  60  40
Taos............................  78  50  80  49 /  40  30  30  20
Mora............................  74  48  76  50 /  60  30  50  40
Espanola........................  84  55  84  55 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  79  54  80  57 /  40  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  83  53  84  55 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  60  85  61 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  63  88  63 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  58  90  59 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  62  89  62 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  90  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  89  60  88  61 /  20  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  91  63  91  63 /  10  20  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  56  80  55 /  40  30  20  30
Tijeras.........................  85  55  84  56 /  30  30  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  48  84  51 /  20  10  20  30
Clines Corners..................  80  52  81  53 /  20  10  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  82  55  81  56 /  10   5  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  86  59  85  60 /   5   5  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  79  51  78  53 /   5   5  30  30
Capulin.........................  81  51  83  53 /  20  10  30  30
Raton...........................  84  52  85  54 /  30  10  40  30
Springer........................  85  55  86  57 /  20  10  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  81  50  83  52 /  30  10  30  30
Clayton.........................  87  58  88  59 /  10   0  20  20
Roy.............................  84  55  85  57 /  10   5  20  30
Conchas.........................  90  61  92  64 /   5   5  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  90  59  91  62 /   5   5  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  93  62  94  65 /   5   0  10  10
Clovis..........................  89  61  90  63 /   5   0  10  10
Portales........................  88  61  88  64 /   5   0  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  88  61  88  64 /   5   0  10  10
Roswell.........................  92  63  93  66 /   5   5  10  10
Picacho.........................  84  57  85  60 /   5   5  20  20
Elk.............................  78  53  79  56 /   5  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

41



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.