Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 111132
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Strong north winds are moving down the eastern plains early this
morning behind a back door cold front with gusts near 40kt from
KCAO to KCVN through 15z. MVFR cigs at KTCC and IFR cigs at KLVS
until 13z or 14z, otherwise VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.
Northwest winds gusting to around 20kt to 25kt this afternoon at
most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across portions of east central and southeast
New Mexico through the morning hours. Rainfall amounts will
generally be less than one tenth of an inch. The precipitation and
cloud cover will clear out by afternoon, but temperatures will
remain near or below normal. Dry northwest flow is on tap through
early next week. Friday will be warm area wide, but a few back door
cold fronts will be on tap to keep temperatures cooler across the
east thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is ongoing across the east
central plains early this morning. However, cold air advection
continues behind the back door segment of the cold front. A few areas
may see some light snow mix in, particularly on the northern and
western fringes of the precip, but amounts will be light, if any at
all. This area of precip will continue to slide southward through
the morning hours, but should diminish by 18z. Strong northerly winds
will persist through the mid morning hours behind the back door
front, and will let the wind advisories stay as is. Temperatures will
be near to below normal this afternoon.

The warm-up occurs Friday with northwest flow aloft. All areas will
be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A back door front remains on
schedule to slide southward across the plains Friday night and early
Saturday, dropping temperatures around 15 degrees for Saturday
afternoon.

Northwest flow will persist into early next week. Another, perhaps
stronger, back door front looks to arrive on Monday, with more cloud
cover associated with it. The upper level ridge will cross over NM on
Tuesday, and a few storm systems look to shift eastward north of NM
mid week. But, models are indicating that it may get more active over
NM after that. Stay tuned.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northwest flow will dominate our weather over the next week.
Unfortunately, this will mean dry weather after this mornings
precipitation.

Our current storm has moved rapidly northeast overnight, moving from
OK into KS. Light rain and snow will move south across the east
central plains this morning, ending by noon. Strong north winds will
be the bigger story for the eastern plains, averaging 25 to 35 mph
with gusts of 45 to 50 mph through mid morning. They will then
subside throughout the remainder of the day. Breezy to windy
conditions will be noted over the western high terrain. It will be a
chilly day with highs near normal west and below normal east where
temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees colder today. Ventilation
rates will be fair to good, except very good rates on the eastern
plains.

Dry northwest flow Friday with lots of sunshine will produce a much
milder day, especially in the east. Winds will be lower than today
but still breezy to windy near and east of the central mountain
chain. A weak short wave trough will drop southeast into NM Friday,
and bring a back door cold front through the eastern plains Friday
night. Ventilation will be mostly good to excellent Friday, except
for some fair to poor rates in the northwest plateau and eastern
plains.

Northwest flow will continue this weekend with a decent amount of
sunshine. The back door cold front in the east will mean a cooler
day Saturday with highs below normal. Temperatures will recover some
on Sunday. Ventilation will take a turn for the worse with
widespread poor conditions in the west Saturday, and everywhere
Sunday.

Another weak short wave trough and back door cold front will reach
NM Monday, with the east experiencing another noticeably cooler day.
Vent rates will remain poor in the west, but improve to fair to good
in much of the east. A weak ridge of high pressure will move over NM
Tuesday into Wednesday providing more dry and a warming trend.
Mostly poor ventilation is forecast for both days.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for the following zones...
 NMZ530>532-534-535.

&&

$$



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