Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 251155 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
455 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND
E AREAS TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND E CENTRAL PLAINS. GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CLINES CORNERS AREA THIS AFTN. GUSTS
SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS E CENTRAL AREAS...BUT
THEY WILL DIE DOWN WITH SUNSET ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER WINDS WITH FEWER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FINE FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
WINDS. WINDS WILL STAY UP TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DISSIPATE RISING 5 TO 10
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HOLD UP
THE WARMUP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A DAY. FANTASTIC WEATHER
FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR NEXT STORM MAY ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD MORNING WITH BRISK WINDS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL
HOLD UP TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. WHILE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RIGHT AT
NORMAL IN CLAYTON.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSOLVING WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT WE WILL LOSE THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A SLOWER WARMUP IN THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL ZONES. IN FACT WE HAVE 54 FOR A HIGH IN CLAYTON BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL SKYROCKET THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
ADD IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WE HAVE
THE MAKINGS FOR FANTASTIC WEATHER AND GREAT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THIS FINE WEATHER IS THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THE WINDS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR DROP A LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND
LOWER SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS
SLOWER ON THE EXTENDED MODELS...NOT REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST
UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL
EVEN IN THE NORTHEAST.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH CA MONDAY AND RACE
EAST TUESDAY...CROSSING NM TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP...FALLING BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST BY TUESDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE EAST. MODERATE WINDS WILL BE FELT BOTH DAYS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT A DRY AND RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.  DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT ON THE WEEKDAYS WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND.

AFTER A COLD START...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND NORMAL AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY...THEN PEAK AROUND 8 TO 19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD DAILY
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN THEY SHOULD CLIMB AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND AN
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT OCCURS ON THE PLAINS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN BRISK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WILL BE A STOUT LEE TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ESPECIALLY DOWN THE I-40 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION
AROUND RATON AND TAOS...VENT RATES LOOK GOOD TODAY DUE TO THE
LINGERING WIND. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN. SPEEDS SHOULD TREND
STRONGER AND VENTILATION SHOULD TREND UPWARD FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN IN THE TRANSITION TO A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FAVORING THE PLAINS FOR STRONGER GUSTS EACH
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON TRACK...STRENGTH AND
TIMING...BUT THEY DO GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING NM WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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