Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 170533 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Remnant shower and storm activity making its way south over northern
NM tonight, including one storm exiting KGUP at this hour. Isolated
storms and showers will linger for the next few hours, with brief
MVFR cigs possible in the early morning hours before sunrise. The
upper high begins to shift east, passing to the N of New Mexico
Monday. Scattered to numerous tstorms can be expected across the TAF
area with isolated activity over the eastern plains. Storm motion
will be generally to the south and southwest.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop daily this week, generally
over the higher terrain then drift into the valleys and plains. The
activity will persist into the late evenings. Slow and erratic
movement of storms will lead to locally heavy rainfall and potential
for arroyo and street flooding. Shower and storm coverage may trend
downward a bit during the middle of this week but looks to increase
again by the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures will hover
within a few degrees of normal while overnight lows will be mostly
above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rather messy synoptic scale weather pattern dominating the region
the next day or so. The inverted trough/easterly wave to our south
will continue to track westward, resulting in steering flow out of
the east for storms over southwest/west central NM. A circulation
over TX which may be assisting convection to the east of NM at this
time looks to continue moving west through this evening, before it
weakens or models lose track of it. The main upper high center
appears to be over the Four Corners area.  All this makes for a slow
and variable movement for this afternoons and evenings crop of
cells, which may also be driven by outflow boundaries. With the KABQ
sounding registering over 1 inch of PWAT, the slow and erratic
movement will make locally heavy rainfall a possibility, with
potential for arroyo and street flooding.

During the next couple of days, the upper high centers are forecast
to consolidate to our north and east. This may help reduce storm
coverage and number by midweek, although the western third or so of
the state will continue to see daily rounds of showers and storms.
By late this week, or over the upcoming weekend, the upper high
center may regroup farther east of New Mexico, allowing for a
favorable monsoon burst for the west and central.

High temperatures will be mostly a few degrees above average in the
east this week, while the west will be near to a few degrees below
average. Overnight lows will be generally above average.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Remaining active through next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms
will form each afternoon and continue well into the nights. The west
should do the best and the least will be in the east in terms of
storm coverage and potential rainfall amounts. Flash flooding will
become more of a concern as we go through each day.

Showers and thunderstorms firing over the western and northern high
terrain right on schedule, and they will move onto the valleys later
this afternoon and evening, perhaps the northeast highlands as well.
RH recoveries will be good to excellent overnight.

High pressure centers are currently near Las Vegas, NV and KS. In
between is lower pressure, with a low center over eastern CO and an
inverted trough impacting southern NM. The Las Vegas high will drift
east to the four corners area by Monday night and will more or less
merge with the eastern high to form a strong ridge of high pressure
in the middle of the country, with a high center in KS on Wednesday.
The high will then drift southeast through the rest of the week and
into the weekend. This will set up a decent tap of monsoon moisture
that will favor western NM, with forecast models in agreement with
this scenario. Flash flooding will become a concern across mainly
the western mountains as we go through the week in places that get
substantial rainfall on multiple days. Widespread coverage of storms
early in the week will diminish some later in the week as the ridge
of high pressure to our east strengthens considerably. But coverage
will pick up again by next weekend as the high shifts well east of
NM and a potential easterly wave moves northwest from Mexico. The
ECMWF is most bullish on this feature impacting southwest NM by the
weekend.

Haines values will be no better than low much of the forecast
period, with spotty moderate values later in the week. Vent rates
will be generally fair or better aside from areas of poor over the
western and northern higher terrain. Overnight RH recoveries will be
good to excellent.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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