Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 010007 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EVE. TAF SITES
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHRA OR TSRA IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE GUP...AEG...ABQ AND LVS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SAME AT FMN AND SAF. NEAR AND EAST OF A TCC TO ROW LINE LITTLE
IF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH THE STRONGEST TSRA MAY STILL PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY... SMALL HAIL AND MT OBSCURATIONS MOSTLY DUE TO
RAIN. SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z TUE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS JUST SOUTH OF
THE STATE. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD DRAW NORTH TOWARD THE
STATE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
WESTERN TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CROP IS SOMEWHAT SMALL AGAIN
WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PEAKS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...A FAIRLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL REGIME FOR LATE AUGUST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERING SOUTH OF NM...THERE IS MORE OF A HOMOGENEOUS WEST TO
EAST MOTION WITH STORMS TODAY. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL BE PRESENT...BUT LOW DUE TO A SUFFICIENT STORM PACE OF
GENERALLY 10 MPH OR MORE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEASONABLE FOR
THE MOST PART...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF NM WHILE A THIN RIBBON
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS DIFFUSED ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND NM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
THE WEST TO EAST STORM MOTIONS CONTINUING ALONG WITH A LOW END
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL ALSO STAY ABOUT THE
SAME...THUS AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS UTILIZED FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHERE NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13-E IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE.

THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CA AND TOWARD AZ/NM INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY THE NAM SOLUTION IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS
QUICKER THAN ITS GFS COUNTERPART WITH REGARDS TO BRINGING THE
PERTURBATION INLAND. THE FORECAST FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WAS TWEAKED TO INCREASE POPS...GENERALLY BLENDING THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS ON ACCOUNT OF A SIGNIFICANT FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ENTERING THE WESTERN ZONES OF NM FIRST BEFORE EXPANDING
TO ADJACENT CENTRAL AREAS. THERE IS STILL SOME LARGE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE OUTCOME OF THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND
LARGE MARGINS FOR ERROR TRACKING THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
PERTURBATION OVER OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...MUCH LESS SHOULD IT MAKE
LANDFALL. FORTUNATELY THERE HAS BEEN SOME TEMPORAL CONTINUITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WOULD SLOWLY REBUILD OVER OLD MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE A DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER NM...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A
CLIMATOLOGICAL BOUT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AFTER COOLING SOME ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY NORMAL LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN IS IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A WETTING ONE AS A
WEST COAST TROUGH TAKES SHAPE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOON-
TO-BE TROPICAL STORM KEVIN TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AND
HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLING. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN LOOK TO PEAK ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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