Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...AT TIMES EXPANDING OR LOWERING
FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WED. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE SAF...GUP...FMN AND
PERHAPS AEG...FMN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ABQ. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY -SN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN. ROW AND LVS FAIRLY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THU MORN AT TCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH A LITTLE
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH EARLIER
AVIATION AFD ISSUANCE. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS TO BE VFR MOST OF
DAY THU...WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  20  40  21 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  35  13  37  11 /  20  10   5   5
CUBA............................  34  17  36  12 /  20  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  39  15  42  16 /  20   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  34  15  37  15 /  30  20   5   0
GRANTS..........................  39  14  42  12 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  34  22  36  21 /  40  20   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  27  53  24 /  50  30   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  14  37   8 /  20  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  36  26  37  22 /  20  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  36  21  39  20 /  10   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  13  32   8 /  10  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  29  12  30  12 /  20  20   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  33   2  35  -2 /  10  10   5   5
TAOS............................  34  14  37  10 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  38  19  40  18 /  10  10   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  41  22  41  21 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  25  36  24 /  10   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  40  20  42  19 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  33  40  29 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  25  45  24 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  26  45  24 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  44  26  44  24 /  10   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  19  45  18 /  10   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  43  27  44  25 /  10   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  25  49  24 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  39  25  38  24 /  10   5   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  28  41  25 /  10   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  18  41  16 /  10   5   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  19  39  19 /  10  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  26  42  23 /  10  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  26  47  24 /  20  20   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  20  45  21 /  10  30   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  40  19  41  18 /   5  10   5   5
RATON...........................  44  16  47  15 /   5  10   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  48  18 /   0  10   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  17  46  18 /   0  10   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  25  48  25 /   5  10   5   5
ROY.............................  45  21  48  21 /   0  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  47  29  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  28  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  27  50  24 /   5  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  52  29  50  25 /   0  20   5   5
PORTALES........................  53  31  52  26 /   0  20   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  51  28 /   0  20   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  57  31  56  26 /   5  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  50  30  51  27 /  10  30   5   0
ELK.............................  49  27  49  25 /  10  40   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




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