Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191131 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA with a few embedded TS continue across northern and western
NM early this morning, and should persist through at least 15Z per
the latest hi-res models. KGUP will be the taf site most likely
impacted. After this activity diminshes, another round of
-SHRA/-TSRA is expected to develop this aftn favoring the western
third of the state. However, local WRF model suggests that storms
will drift into the RGV off the central mt chain this eve with
showers lingering into the overnight period. Gusty outflow
boundaries with speeds near 35kt will be possible, mainly this
afternoon and early eve. Storm motions will be toward the N and NE
around 10 kt.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
As upper level high pressure remains just to the east of New Mexico
today through Wednesday, monsoon moisture will continue to seep into
the region from the south. The upper high will begin to shift
westward Thursday and is forecast to be over New Mexico Friday. This
westward shift should result in decreasing shower and thunderstorm
activity late this week. A cold front is forecast to move into
northeast New Mexico Saturday, bringing with it an increase in low
level moisture and providing a trigger for scattered showers and
storms through the weekend. High temperatures continue to be near to
above average for the remainder of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and a short lived storm or two continue to track northwest
to north from portions of the RGV westward at this time. Moisture
still increasing with dew points generally higher than 24 hours ago,
and KABQ`s up to 60, much more monsoon like than in recent days.
With the upper high center hanging out to our east through
Wednesday, today through Wednesday should be the most active with
scattered to numerous showers and storms central and west. The east
will be least likely to see any rain but the steering flow gradually
shifts from southeast to south today and then southwest to west on
Wednesday so isolated cells would have more initiative to reach the
ne plains.

With the increase in moisture highs should be a few degrees cooler
central and west. However, stayed on the high side of guidance or a
little above based on recent preformance. Still, temperatures
overall will remain mostly above average although a passing shower
or storm should help provide at least temporary relief from the
heat.

By Thursday and Friday, the upper high is forecast to shift back
over NM, with shower and storm activity decreasing. High
temperatures will inch a few degrees upward.  The GFS holds onto the
cold front due later Saturday which initiates an increase in
convective activity for the rest of the weekend. Thereafter, GFS and
ECMWF have some differences in the overall UA pattern with the ECMWF
consolidating a single high center over NV and the GFS preferring a
broad area of high pressure with 2 centers over the southern U.S.
Whichever pans out, it doesn`t bode well for a wet period late this
month.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light to briefly moderate rain showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms will continue this morning along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley. Per latest high res models, these showers should
persist through the early morning hours, though most locations will
receive less than a tenth of an inch. As a result of the cloud cover
and precip, high temperatures should be 3 to 8 degrees cooler
than yesterday in these areas.

Otherwise, the big picture hasn`t changed. The upper high over
Oklahoma will persist through at least Wednesday, and though the
high center will remain over Oklahoma through the end of the
workweek, it will start to elongate back to the west on Thursday and
moreso on Friday. Overall, this means the best chance for wetting
precipitation will be today across western and central NM, followed
by Wednesday across western NM. As mid level dry air continues to
nudge into the state from the east, eastern NM will remain dry, and
storms across central NM will have better chances for strong
downburst/outflow boundaries. The bumper-car effect from these
boundaries may help spark evening storms across the Rio Grande
Valley this evening. Less storm coverage is expected across the
central mtn chain on Wednesday, but what storms do develop will be
similar. Storm motions each day will be toward the north and
northeast around 10 to 15 mph. Additionally, both today and
Wednesday, breezy southwest winds are expected across much of
northeast NM.

The elongation of the high will push the best monsoonal moisture
west into AZ on Thursday and Friday. However, recycled moisture will
still yield isolated to scattered storms over the high terrain each
afternoon. Storm motions will decrease and likely become more
erratic. The eastern plains will remain the driest area through
the work week.

Still looking for a back door front to arrive over the weekend. It
now looks as through it will arrive late Saturday and should aid in
thunderstorm development across NE NM. Outflow boundaries may
effectively push the front, and thereby better low level moisture,
farther south, setting the stage for a more active Sunday as well.

Areas of poor to fair ventilation remain on tap for Friday and
Saturday across southwest areas. However, small pockets of fair
ventilation are also possible Thursday across central areas and
Saturday across the northeast. Larger areas of poor ventilation
are possible on Sunday and Monday.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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