Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 030542
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN AREA OF SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST NM...CENTERED
OVER GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES. IT IS FINALLY ENDING IN LVS.
SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND END SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NC MTNS WILL HAVE MTN TOP OBSCD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CIGS AS A RESULT OF THIS CLEARING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...728 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016...
.UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROCIADA AND LAS VEGAS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CUERVO AND MELROSE HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL
SNOW ATTM. AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET
WEST OF LAS VEGAS TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 ELSEWHERE. WILL ADD
GUADALUPE AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES INTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY A SMALL PORTION OF NE DE BACA...SW
QUAY AND NW ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS
WELL. TEMPS IN THIS LATTER AREA ARE HOVERING JUST BELOW FREEZING
SO WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE AS BIG OF AN IMPACT AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH
AND NW WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

THE BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WILL UPDATE SNOW GRIDS AND GET NEW SFT/ZFP OUT SHORTLY. WSW
ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY SMALL SCALE SNOW MAKER DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AT MID AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A
SEVERAL INCHES...VERY LOCALLY A BIT MORE...OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND SOMEWHAT LESS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE PREDAWN EARLY MORNING HOURS OR VERY SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A
DRY BUT CHILLIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME CHANCE OF FLURRIES
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF A
POSSIBLE WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH STORM FOR THE END OF THIS WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY COMPACT MID AND UPPER LVL WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RAMP UP A BIT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM AS OF MID AFTN.
WITH THE HELP OF VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TURNING SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE INTO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TUSAS AND SOUTH HALF OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS SHOULD SEE THE MOST LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ON THE LOW SIDE
TO 10 OR 12 INCHES ON THE HIGH SIDE. ANYWHERE FROM JUST OVER AN
INCH TO 4 OR 5 INCHES SEEMS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS...
SO THAT ZONE WAS ADDED TO THE PREEXISTING ADVISORY AREA THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MARGINAL ADDITION. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR WED AND THU. EXPECT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVEN WED NIGHT FOR MOST SPOTS...ALSO ONE OF THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. A BIT OF A WARM-UP THU IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT TROUGH...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL.

STILL RATHER LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
FRI AS VERY POOR FCST MODEL CONSENSUS STILL BEING DISPLAYED
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. CANADIAN
MODEL HITTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FAIRLY HARD WITH
SNOW...MOST OTHERS NOT MUCH AT ALL.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS QUIET...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS LINGERING.
ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR APPEARS POISED TO DROP INTO THE
STATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME DRY SNOW
ACROSS THE NE...OTHERWISE DRY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT A LOT OF BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID LOWER
DEWPOINT/RH VALUES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE WED/THU PERIOD.
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRONG BUT TRANSITIONAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. NO REAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES OTHER THAN POOR VENTILATION ON THURSDAY
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

A SECONDARY PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A WAVE WILL
IMPACT NC/NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE WAVES ENERGY WILL BE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FOUND
ALONG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND OF WETTING
SNOW WILL RESULT AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MTNS...ESPECIALLY EAST SLOPES OF THE LOWER SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE SANGRES. DRIER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WITH VERY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

AS THE PARENT PACIFIC LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR A DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE. A STRONGER BAND OF NW WINDS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER TRANSPORT
WINDS AND PRETTY DECENT VENT RATES MOST AREAS. THE HIGHEST VENT
RATES WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO ALBUQUERQUE TO THE
GALLINAS MTNS AS WELL AS ACROSS NE AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 21
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION MAKING ITS WAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL
IMPACTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IMPACT. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD EXPERIENCE VERY LOW RH VALUES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...EVEN BEFORE MIXING REALLY GETS GOING. ANOTHER
PACIFIC WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ALTHOUGH IT DOESNT APPEAR TO
MAKE ANY BIG VENTILATION IMPACTS. IF THE WAVE WERE TO BE
QUICKER...VENTILATION COULD IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY.

THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL CROSS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON THE TRANSLATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THEY WERE A BIT BEEFIER WITH THE PRECIPITATION PRIOR DAYS
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN DRIER. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
WETTING SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND
PERHAPS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS/NAM MODELS ARE THE DRIEST...THEN
ECMWF THEN CANADIAN SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE.

A DRIER...COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER TRAILING PACIFIC WAVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME. A MODIFIED POLAR OR ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE
FRIDAY WAVE PASSAGE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN GRIDDED TEMPS MOST
LIKELY WOULD BE LOWERED.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ510-513>515-529-532-533.

&&

$$


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