Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 132151
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
351 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge of high pressure will shift east of the state tonight. This
will result in breezy to locally windy condtions to develop Thursday
afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the northern third of the state with isolated activity
elsewhere. The associated cold front will move through the state
Thursday night, bringing high temperature down to near average
levels for mid September on Friday. Saturday remains dry over all but
the southeast plains where a few afternoon or evening thunderstorms
are possible. By Sunday, subtropical moisture is forecast to increase
from the south, resulting in increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northwest flow aloft on the east side of the ridge axis continues to
send storms mainly sewd this afternoon and early evening. Ridge gets
shoved east overnight as a closed low moves ashore near Point
Arguello, CA. This feature is forecast to weaken and open up as it
heads east-northeastward but will result in breezy to locally windy
southwest winds all areas Thursday. Near to record heat is likely for
the east-central and southeast plains Thursday afternoon given the
downsloping effects of the southwest wind. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the northern third or so Thursday
afternoon with a few showers or storms elsewhere. A good amount of
mid-level dry air gets drawn into the southwest flow aloft ahead of
the low/trough as it lifts newd through southern UT so expect strong
and gusty outflow winds with Thursday afternoon`s convection.

Dry air moves in behind the weak surface cold front Thursday with
temperatures cooling to near seasonal averages Friday. Friday night
looking like the coolest night areawide in quite some time but still
above 30-yr averages. Saturday still looks dry and breezy for all
but the southeast plains where low level Gulf moisture moves in from
west TX for a few afternoon storms.

All eyes turn to tropical wave/disturbance east of Tropical Storm
Max. While Max is forecast to drift east and weaken over Mexico,
Disturbance 1 is forecast by most global models to strengthen into a
Tropical Depression, then strengthen further and head north
thereafter. GFS continues to be the very consistent run to run model,
bringing up the remnant moisture and circulation from what could end
up being either Norma or Otis late-day Sunday into Monday. 12Z GFS
and 12Z North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) bring this
Tropical Cyclone to near Cabo San Lucas around 12Z Sunday, then move
it north-northeast up the Gulf of California through the day.
Subtropical moisture ahead of this cyclone on southerly winds aloft
is forecast to move into NM Sunday through Monday. Still too far out
for high confidence that the deeper subtropical moisture and
circulation would make it into the state given that the most skillful
global model, the ECMWF, continues to strengthen Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E (the farthest east Tropical Depression) and bring it nwwd,
not brining its moisture into NM until late next week. If all of
this is confusing, check www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac for a map.

Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to dig a deep and quite vigorous
upper level trough/closed low over the Great Basin late next week.
This feature may have deep subtropical moisture to draw upon from
the now active eastern Pacific. Global models continue to agree that
this trough/low will be a wind maker with a 986 mb surface low near
Denver and quite the cool down for NM and much of the western U.S.
late next week.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another crop of showers and thunderstorms has developed this
afternoon, but with very limited wetting rain footprint. Otherwise,
high temperatures are once again hitting above to well above normal
this afternoon.

A pattern change is underway as the upper high sinks south to over
northern Mexico and the upper low along the California coast begins
to move east toward the southern Rockies. The upper low is forecast
to open up as it moves toward the region Thursday and will push a
weak Pacific front through, which will trigger a round of showers
and storms favoring northwest portions of the state. Downslope winds
will cause additional warming across the Eastern Plains Thursday,
with highs well above normal. Friday and Saturday will be a down
days behind the front, with afternoon breezes, little to no chance
for wetting rain and highs closer to normal. Good to excellent
ventilation is forecast Thursday through Saturday.

A moistening trend is forecast Sunday into Monday as a potent west
coast trough/low takes shape and tropical moisture moves north
around the upper high circulation into New Mexico. The latest GFS is
consistent with previous runs in showing a tropical storm/hurricane
moving north up the Baja late Sunday, while the ECMWF keeps any
tropical moisture out of New Mexico through at least Tuesday.
Forecast confidence for Sunday through Wednesday is still on the
lower side, but is trending up toward a potential more widespread
wetting rain period. The first major cold front of the season looks
on track for sometime mid to late next week, with good wetting rain
potential as both the 12z ECMWF and GFS are showing a potent trough
over the Great Basin.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, although lowering VFR cigs are likely between 12-18Z Thursday
at KGUP and KFMN. Showers and storm may move in the vicinity of
central and western terminals this afternoon/evening, with erratic
and gusty winds the mostly likely impact.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  82  51  80 /  20  40  20   5
Dulce...........................  44  80  40  79 /  20  40  20   5
Cuba............................  51  78  49  76 /  20  40  30   5
Gallup..........................  51  81  45  76 /  20  30  10   0
El Morro........................  47  76  42  74 /  20  40  10   5
Grants..........................  49  82  45  79 /  20  30  10   5
Quemado.........................  52  77  51  74 /  20  30   5   0
Glenwood........................  59  86  56  81 /  20  20   0   5
Chama...........................  46  75  43  76 /  20  50  40   5
Los Alamos......................  57  78  54  75 /  20  50  30   5
Pecos...........................  54  83  51  78 /  10  10  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  51  75  49  72 /  20  30  30   0
Red River.......................  44  66  44  62 /  20  40  30   0
Angel Fire......................  35  73  35  70 /  20  30  30   0
Taos............................  43  80  45  76 /  20  20  30   5
Mora............................  49  80  48  76 /  10  40  20   0
Espanola........................  58  85  56  81 /  20  20  20   5
Santa Fe........................  57  80  54  75 /  10  20  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  56  84  52  79 /  10  20  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  86  59  82 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  87  61  83 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  89  56  85 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  88  58  83 /  10  10   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  53  94  53  90 /  10  10   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  62  87  58  83 /  10  20  10   5
Socorro.........................  63  90  58  87 /  10  10   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  81  50  80 /  10  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  51  84  48  80 /  10  10   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  85  45  78 /  10  10   5   5
Clines Corners..................  54  84  52  78 /  10  10   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  55  80 /  10  10   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  60  89  59  84 /   5  10   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  56  84  54  78 /   5  10   0   5
Capulin.........................  52  84  51  79 /  20  30  20   0
Raton...........................  50  84  51  80 /  20  20  10   0
Springer........................  51  87  51  82 /  20  20  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  52  80  51  76 /  10  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  57  89  58  85 /  20  20  20   0
Roy.............................  54  86  54  81 /  20  20  10   0
Conchas.........................  62  93  62  88 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  92  60  87 /  10  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  98  63  92 /  10  20   5   0
Clovis..........................  60  93  62  87 /  10  20   0   5
Portales........................  61  93  63  87 /  10  20   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  61  94  62  87 /  10  10   0   5
Roswell.........................  64 100  65  93 /   5  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  63  90  61  87 /   5  10   0   5
Elk.............................  60  85  58  82 /   5  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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