000
FXUS65 KABQ 292357 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$