


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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157 FXUS65 KABQ 111843 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1243 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - There is a risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across eastern NM this afternoon and tonight. - There is a risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday afternoon and evening. The flash flood threat will be elevated on area burn scars. - Good chances for showers and storms will persist next week with a locally heavy rainfall threat and an elevated flash flood risk on area burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The upper level ridge axis has shifted south slightly to southern NM and is resulting in dry westerlies intruding further east into central NM today. However, plenty of low level moisture resides across eastern NM, where surface dewpoint temps are in the 50s and lower 60s. Another round of storms will take off shortly as the convective temp is reached and will move east or southeast into the northeast and east central plains going into the late afternoon hours, where sufficient shear and instability reside for a marginal to slight risk for severe storms. The latest NAM is advertising dCAPE values of around 2,000J/kg across the eastern plains later this afternoon, which is more than sufficient for storms to produce damaging wind gusts in addition to the threat for large hail. The CAMs develop a 2nd round of storms overnight across the east central plains on the outflow from storms to the east. The NAM has been bullish on that scenario for a couple days now, so decided to pull the trigger on a Flash Flood Watch for tonight out east, trusting the modeling and given solid southeast low level inflow to interact with the boundary. The area from Santa Rosa to Tucumcari to Clovis is the highest confidence area for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding tonight. A shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeast out of the central Rockies overnight and down into the TX Panhandle, into the weakness between two upper highs across the southern US. The shortwave trough will bring a backdoor front, which will combine with convective cold-pooling to the east, to push west through the central mountain chain overnight. A gusty east canyon wind is forecast in the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valley overnight, with gusts to between 35-40 mph in the ABQ Metro. Low level moisture will transport west behind the front to the Continental Divide, setting the stage for a round of storms on Saturday afternoon/evening that will focus from the Continental Divide east through the central mountain chain. Sufficient shear and instability is being modeled on Saturday afternoon for a round of strong to severe storms across central NM, where the SPC day 2 convective outlook has a marginal risk for severe storms. The risk for burn scar flash flooding will be back on the uptrend Saturday, with sustained low level upslope forcing behind the backdoor front making for longer-lived updrafts and locally heavy rainfall. Saturday`s round of storms is being modeled to diminish with the loss of daytime heating, following a more normal diurnal downtrend, unlike tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Sunday will be another active day, but with steering flow more toward the southwest vs south or southeast like Saturday`s, as the upper high to the west drifts north some and establishes a new ridge axis over the southern Rockies going into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding are threats for Sunday, but storm motion toward the southwest may take storms off of the higher terrain and away from our burn scars, potentially limiting the threat relative to Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave trough gets stuck in between the upper high to our west and a strengthening upper high along the upper Gulf coast going into Monday, turning into an inverted trough and rotating slowly across southern NM and into northern MX Mon/Tue. This pattern will keep moisture in place across our area and lead to an active week, despite the upper high to our west moving over NM Wed/Thu. The upper high is forecast to continue moving east and out of NM on Friday into the following weekend, opening the door for moisture from the south to surge north and lead to an uptick in coverage of showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period across western NM. Although, areas of smoke may settle near the surface overnight and could limit visibility to 5SM at KFMN, KGUP and KSAF near sunrise. Across eastern NM, short-lived MVFR conditions are likely in sct/num storms late this afternoon through the overnight hours, with the highest probabilities at KTCC where short-lived IFR conditions can not be ruled out. Areas of MVFR conditions in low stratus are forecast early Saturday morning across eastern NM. The combination of a backdoor front and thunderstorm outflow from the east will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV overnight, impacting both KABQ and KSAF. An Airport Weather Warning for east canyon wind gusts to 35kts will likely be required for KABQ. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will persist across northwest NM this afternoon and early evening as dry westerlies intrude with the upper level ridge axis shifting south. However, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A backdoor front will recharge moisture across central NM tonight into Saturday and lead to renewed chances for wetting storms going forward. Good chances for wetting storms will persist through next week, with an elevated threat of burn scar flash flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 96 61 97 / 0 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 46 91 45 91 / 0 30 20 40 Cuba............................ 55 88 54 88 / 0 20 20 40 Gallup.......................... 50 94 49 94 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 54 89 53 89 / 0 10 20 30 Grants.......................... 54 93 53 91 / 0 20 20 30 Quemado......................... 58 91 57 91 / 0 20 30 50 Magdalena....................... 62 88 60 88 / 0 40 40 60 Datil........................... 60 88 55 87 / 0 30 30 60 Reserve......................... 55 95 53 95 / 10 30 30 60 Glenwood........................ 60 99 59 98 / 10 40 30 60 Chama........................... 47 82 46 84 / 5 50 30 50 Los Alamos...................... 60 80 58 84 / 5 60 30 60 Pecos........................... 55 78 54 82 / 20 60 50 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 83 51 82 / 30 60 30 60 Red River....................... 43 71 43 73 / 40 70 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 39 72 38 75 / 30 70 30 60 Taos............................ 52 84 49 85 / 20 60 30 50 Mora............................ 49 75 48 79 / 30 70 50 60 Espanola........................ 59 90 58 92 / 10 40 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 60 83 58 85 / 10 50 40 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 86 57 88 / 10 50 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 65 93 / 5 40 40 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 93 64 93 / 5 30 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 95 64 96 / 5 30 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 93 64 94 / 5 30 30 30 Belen........................... 62 95 62 95 / 0 20 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 65 93 62 95 / 5 30 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 62 95 61 95 / 0 20 30 30 Corrales........................ 66 95 63 95 / 5 30 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 63 95 62 94 / 0 20 30 30 Placitas........................ 64 89 61 91 / 5 40 40 50 Rio Rancho...................... 65 93 63 95 / 5 30 30 30 Socorro......................... 68 98 66 96 / 5 20 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 85 56 86 / 10 50 50 70 Tijeras......................... 60 86 59 88 / 10 50 50 60 Edgewood........................ 55 84 54 86 / 10 50 50 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 84 53 87 / 10 50 50 50 Clines Corners.................. 55 75 54 80 / 20 60 60 60 Mountainair..................... 56 84 55 85 / 10 50 50 50 Gran Quivira.................... 57 83 56 85 / 10 40 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 63 88 61 88 / 10 40 40 50 Ruidoso......................... 57 79 56 78 / 20 60 60 70 Capulin......................... 52 72 50 79 / 70 50 50 20 Raton........................... 53 77 51 84 / 60 60 50 30 Springer........................ 55 78 52 85 / 60 60 50 30 Las Vegas....................... 52 75 51 81 / 30 60 50 40 Clayton......................... 60 76 57 85 / 70 40 30 10 Roy............................. 57 75 55 82 / 70 50 50 20 Conchas......................... 62 82 61 88 / 70 50 40 20 Santa Rosa...................... 61 79 59 84 / 50 50 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 59 80 58 85 / 70 40 40 10 Clovis.......................... 63 83 62 87 / 50 40 50 20 Portales........................ 63 84 62 87 / 50 40 50 20 Fort Sumner..................... 64 84 63 88 / 50 40 40 20 Roswell......................... 70 90 68 90 / 10 40 50 20 Picacho......................... 62 84 62 84 / 20 40 40 30 Elk............................. 60 82 59 82 / 10 50 50 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-219-220. Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late tonight for NMZ230>237. Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11