Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220858
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS COMING NORTH INTO NM EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS. THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH A DRIER DAY ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO GET A
FRESH BATCH OF MOISTURE COMING INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE EUROPEAN
AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODEL SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE RAIN EVENT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL
AREAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TARGET OF THE RAIN TODAY...WITH A SHIFT
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THURSDAYS TOASTY HIGHS. THE TROUGH OVER
AZ WILL CROSS NM TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AIR TO WORK
INTO THE STATE WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTION. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE TO HEAD NORTH INTO NM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN THE MODELS
GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS CONTINUES THE MOST PROGRESS AND WEAKEST WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE. IT SWINGS THROUGH NM MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND
AFTER THAT. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN IS ESPECIALLY SLOW WITH A CLOSED LOW
OVER NV TUESDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY BUT DOES SLOW THE TROUGH DOWN AND NEARLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER CO NEXT WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW AND KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
NM...ALLOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH IT. SHOWERS NOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME WETTING RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MORNING
ACTIVITY SHIFT EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY...SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. THUS MANY PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM SHOULD ALSO SEE WETTING RAINS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS...WHILE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM DUE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. HUMIDITIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

THE TROUGH WILL EXIT NM SATURDAY MORNING...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BEHIND IT. VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAYS READINGS.

THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...MEANWHILE...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
PRETTY QUIET OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW STORMS...BUT OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY
WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THEY
WERE 24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS AT LEAST 24-36 HOURS
FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A WEAK MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TAP MONDAY...AND THIS MAY BE WHAT THE GFS IS HINTING AT FOR
SUNDAY AS WELL. NONETHELESS...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY VS SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...
CONFIDENCE WANES CONSIDERABLY AS EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE. THE QUICKER PROGRESSION FROM THE GFS LEADS TO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR COMING IN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND A BACK DOOR
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME. IN FACT THE ECMWF DOESNT BRING THE TROUGH
ACROSS FULLY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...BUT DOES MOVE IN A BACK DOOR FRONT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO VENTILATION CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TAP OF MOISTURE SLIDING
NORTH OUT OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM KGUP TO KFMN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND SUNRISE. CIGS MAY
HOWEVER NEAR MVFR AT 035 BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE OUTSIDE OF LCLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER THE
EL PASO AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH AND SPREAD UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASED CONFIDENCE SUBSTANTIALLY
ON LATEST TAF SET TO PLACE TEMPO IMPACTS OF RAIN AND BORDERLINE
MVFR VSBYS NEAR 5SM THRU ABOUT NOON. THE AREA OF RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN BY MID
DAY...WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN NM AND SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  80  57  84  56 /  50  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  74  48  79  48 /  70  40   5   5
CUBA............................  73  50  80  52 /  70  40   5   5
GALLUP..........................  76  50  79  50 /  30  20   5   0
EL MORRO........................  71  47  74  49 /  50  30   5   0
GRANTS..........................  73  50  77  52 /  60  20   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  73  51  78  52 /  40  30   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  81  51  84  54 /  30  30  10   0
CHAMA...........................  69  43  74  43 /  70  50  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  72  53  79  56 /  70  30  10   0
PECOS...........................  70  51  77  53 /  80  30   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  72  50  78  50 /  70  30   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  62  43  68  45 /  90  40  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  43  74  43 /  70  30   5   0
TAOS............................  73  47  79  49 /  70  20   5   0
MORA............................  71  49  79  50 /  70  30  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  77  53  84  56 /  70  20   5   0
SANTA FE........................  71  54  79  56 /  90  20   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  53  82  55 /  80  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  76  58  84  60 /  70  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  77  61  85  63 /  70  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  79  57  87  59 /  60  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  79  59  88  62 /  60  20   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  56  86  57 /  70  20   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  80  59  89  61 /  60  20   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  82  60  90  64 /  70  20   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  52  83  55 /  80  20   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  75  53  82  56 /  70  20   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  74  49  80  51 /  90  30   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  72  54  80  55 /  70  40   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  56  80  57 /  70  40  10   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  60  82  61 /  60  40  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  70  54  77  55 /  70  40  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  80  55  82  55 /  50  30   5   0
RATON...........................  82  52  85  53 /  50  30   5   0
SPRINGER........................  82  53  87  54 /  40  30   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  74  52  81  53 /  60  30   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  89  62  91  61 /  30  30   5   5
ROY.............................  83  58  85  59 /  40  30   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  88  65  92  65 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  84  62  89  62 /  50  30   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  65  95  64 /  30  30   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  89  62  90  62 /  30  30  10  10
PORTALES........................  90  63  91  63 /  30  30  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  64  90  64 /  30  30   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  90  67  93  67 /  30  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  80  60  86  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  75  58  79  59 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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