Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 231034
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
More snow is on the way today and tonight across New Mexico. Snow
will favor the northern mountains during the day, but will expand
this evening as a cold front sweeps from west to east. Much of
western and northern New Mexico will see impacts from the snow.
Additionally, winds will increase today, which will cause areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibility. Strong winds will persist on
Tuesday, especially east of the central mountain chain where gusts
between 50 and 60 mph will be possible. Snow, however, will slowly
diminish on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected with little
additional accumulations. Dry and cold weather is on tap for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The next 24 hours will be very active across the Land of
Enchantment, then the excitement should slow for the rest of the
week. Snow has already begun across northwest NM overnight as a
weak perturbation in the westerly flow shifted over the area. 2
inches of snow has already been reported around Dulce and webcams
around Aztec suggest at least an inch as well. Though the snow
will wane this morning across lower elevations, it should continue
across the northwest mountains. More snow will be on the way late
this afternoon through the overnight period for all of western
and much of central NM as a band of snow associated with a Pacific
front slides from west to east. The band is not expected to make
it much past the central mountain chain, but areas across northern
and western NM should pick up a few to several more inches of
snow. Given the snow already reported around FMN and Aztec, will
add zone 501 into the current winter weather advisory, and will
also upgrade zone 503 to a winter storm warning as several more
inches of snow is expected around Dulce. Will also expand the
winter weather advisory to the remainder of western NM and around
Espanola and Santa Fe for the band of snow this evening and
overnight.

In addition to the snow, winds will also increase today areawide,
though the strongest winds will be felt along and just east of
the central mountain chain. Tonight, a 700 mb jet of 60 to 70kts
will cross SE NM. Thus, in addition to a wind advisory for a few
zones today, will also hoist a high wind watch for the Sacramento
mtns and the adjacent high plains to the east.

The strong winds will continue on Tuesday, especially east of the
central mountain chain. Will need to expand either a high end wind
advisory or a high wind warning across the remainder of the east
central and southeast plains. Though the jet will be pulling away
during the day, a strong surface gradient will remain in place due
to a 989-992mb surface low over KS. Otherwise, the snow will be on
the decrease. There will likely be some instability showers
around, but additional accumulations will be minimal. Nonetheless,
due to the wind, some blowing and drifting snow will be possible.

The remainder of the week looks dry and cold. Temperatures will
remain below normal Tuesday through the end of the week. A
reinforcing shot of cold air in the form of another upper trough
will arrive on Friday, but this trough passage looks dry for the
most part. As this trough continue to slide southward over the
weekend, it will become a closed low over Mexico, and should stick
around down there for a while as models suggest a high over low
blocking pattern well into next week. Thus, not much precip is
expected after the current system for the foreseeable future.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More rain and snow for western and central NM into Tuesday, then
a break from the active weather pattern Wednesday through next
weekend. However, it will turn much colder Tuesday and remain that
way into the weekend.

Good coverage of wetting precipitation again for western and central
NM into Tuesday. Impressive looking storm on satellite off the
Pacific Northwest coast with a short wave trough rotating east
around the bottom of the low. It`s this wave that will be the main
player for us, as the northwest storm weakens. More snow will fall
over the western and central mountains, with a mix of rain and
snow in the northwest and central valleys. Much of western and
central areas will get accumulating snow, even a little snow in
Albuquerque tonight.

The wind will also be a big factor with this system. Winds are
already cranking up over the mountains and their east slopes. We
will issue wind advisories for the central into northeast high
terrain for today into Tuesday. A high wind watch will also be
issued for the south central and our portion of the Guadalupe
mountains onto eastern Lincoln County.

A big change to colder weather will be the final piece of this
weather system. A cold front will sweep from west to east across NM
tonight into Tuesday, with a secondary front into the northeast
Tuesday night. While highs will warm today compared to Sunday, they
will drop 10 to 15 degrees Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Highs on
these two days will be 10 to 20 degrees below late January normals.

A period of dry weather is forecast from Wednesday through the
weekend. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Friday. This
will keep temperatures below normal through the weekend, but at
least the winds will be light.

Vent rates will be mostly good or better through Wednesday, with
Tuesday having the highest rates. They will drop off sharply though
Thursday through the weekend, with mostly poor rates.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Focus for IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys from -SN will remain over northern
and western NM overnight. KGUP and KFMN likely to see improvement
after 09Z with MVFR cigs thereafter. Winds will increase Monday
with most terminals averaging gusts between 25 and 35kt aft 19Z.
The next batch of -SN will move in from the west thru Monday and
impact KFMN and KGUP once again after 21Z. Confidence is moderate
on timing of the snow as models differ on eastward progression.
Nonetheless, the combination of stronger winds, snow, and colder
temps will make the 2nd batch more impactful than tonight`s. -SN
will make it into the RGV and potentially impact KSAF/KABQ shortly
after sunset Monday.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  27  34  16 /  60  70  40   5
Dulce...........................  37  19  28  10 /  80  90  60  20
Cuba............................  38  22  27   8 /  40  90  70  20
Gallup..........................  42  22  30  10 /  60  80  40  10
El Morro........................  39  20  29  11 /  40  90  50  20
Grants..........................  44  23  31  11 /  30  80  40  10
Quemado.........................  42  23  31  15 /  20  80  30  10
Glenwood........................  49  27  39  17 /  30  70  20   0
Chama...........................  34  13  26   3 /  90 100  70  20
Los Alamos......................  41  25  30  15 /  40  70  50  10
Pecos...........................  42  23  29   9 /  20  80  50  10
Cerro/Questa....................  35  13  25   6 /  70  90  50  20
Red River.......................  31  14  20   3 /  80 100  60  30
Angel Fire......................  35  17  24  -6 /  70  90  50  20
Taos............................  40  19  30   7 /  50  80  40  20
Mora............................  41  21  30  11 /  30  70  40  10
Espanola........................  44  27  34  18 /  20  60  40   5
Santa Fe........................  44  24  31  13 /  30  80  50  10
Santa Fe Airport................  47  26  35  15 /  20  70  40  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  30  37  21 /   5  70  40   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  32  40  22 /   5  60  30   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  32  41  20 /   0  60  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  31  39  21 /   5  60  30   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  29  42  19 /   0  50  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  32  39  22 /   5  60  30   0
Socorro.........................  57  33  44  25 /   0  20  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  27  32  18 /  10  80  50   5
Tijeras.........................  48  29  34  18 /  10  80  40   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  29  35  12 /   5  60  30   5
Clines Corners..................  48  25  32  15 /   5  50  30   5
Gran Quivira....................  48  29  37  20 /   5  50  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  52  32  41  23 /   0  30  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  51  29  36  21 /   5  50  40   0
Capulin.........................  51  25  38  12 /   5  20  20  10
Raton...........................  56  24  44  14 /  10  30  10  10
Springer........................  52  27  40  16 /   5  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  51  26  37  13 /  10  40  20   5
Clayton.........................  62  31  50  20 /   0   0  10   0
Roy.............................  55  29  45  21 /   0  10  10   5
Conchas.........................  63  35  48  24 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  35  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  35  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  35  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  66  36  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  37  52  27 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  71  37  60  26 /   0   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  62  36  50  27 /   0  10  10   0
Elk.............................  56  35  41  24 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM MST Tuesday for the
following zones... NMZ521-523-524-529-532-533.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Tuesday for the following zones... NMZ505-507-508-517-518.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ526-539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ501-504-506.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ502-503-510-511.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ512>516.

&&

$$

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