Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH
PUSHING THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR
SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF
STORMS ON SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  61  88  59 /   5  10  20  40
DULCE...........................  83  50  84  50 /  30  10  10  50
CUBA............................  82  52  83  52 /  40  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  86  54  84  53 /  20  20  60  50
EL MORRO........................  82  52  80  51 /  20  40  40  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  82  53 /  20  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  53  81  55 /  20  40  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  59  84  60 /  40  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  48  77  48 /  50  20  10  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  57  82  57 /  30  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  79  53  81  55 /  50  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  49  81  50 /  40  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  68  41  71  43 /  50  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  43  75  45 /  50  20  10  10
TAOS............................  81  49  82  51 /  10  10   5  10
MORA............................  75  50  80  53 /  50  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  86  54  87  55 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  82  56  83  57 /  40  20   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  57  86  58 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  66 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  62  90  63 /  10  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  63  89  64 /  10  20   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  61  91  62 /  10  20   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  87  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  89  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  83  59  84  59 /  50  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  58  86  59 /  50  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  53  85  54 /  20  10   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  55  82  57 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  57  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  59  85  61 /  30  10   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  55  78  58 /  50  20   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  82  53  86  56 /  10   5   0   0
RATON...........................  85  52  88  55 /  10   5   0  10
SPRINGER........................  85  54  88  56 /  10   5   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  52  83  55 /  20  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  87  60  91  62 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  85  56  88  58 /  10   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  91  63  93  64 /  10   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  89  60  91  63 /  10   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  62  94  65 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  89  61  91  63 /  20   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  90  60  92  64 /  20  10   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  63  92  63 /  10   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  92  65  95  65 /  20  10   0   5
PICACHO.........................  86  59  88  61 /  20  10   0  10
ELK.............................  81  57  82  58 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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