000
FXUS65 KABQ 061752 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1052 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD RESULT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AS A WEAK PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES OVER THAT AREA THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY BUT PERHAPS SOME MTN TOP OBSCD. NOT
CARRYING VCSH AT GUP OR FMN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE WATCHING
WEATHER/MODEL TRENDS. A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY OF PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. AGAIN...A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT MVFR CIGS
AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HRS BUT MTN TOP OBSCD POSSIBLE. BETTER
CHANCE AFTER 18Z FRI. SOME BREEZINESS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIXING AT MODERATE LVLS. STRONGER
WIND POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/FRI. PERHAPS SOME MODERATE MTN WAVES TO
THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS LATE TONIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN SPREADS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ADJACENT NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING INCOMING LEAD DISTURBANCE VERY WELL AS A
BROAD STREAM OF MOISTURE INDICATED ON IMAGERY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. LTG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE RNO AREA AND ASSUMING IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE THAT WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT THIS FEATURE MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE VIGOROUS...ALSO
DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WX GRIDS...SO INCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED
TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY STILL FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY BEFORE COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/PLAINS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE AREAS RANGE
FROM AROUND 2 TO 6 OR 7 INCHES SO MOSTLY MEETING ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA. WILL JUST UPDATE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE CONTDVD.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV SATURDAY WHICH
MIGHT HELP PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS TREND. THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AND WARMER WITH POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
WX AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... 00Z MODELS WAY
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH MODEST WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING.
AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...PULLING SOME BREEZES
DOWNSLOPE AND HELPING TO WARM THINGS UP QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS UNDERWENT A LOWERING TREND YESTERDAY AND WILL
OBSERVE A LOSS OF A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY AMIDST THE WARMING.
SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY EXCEED CRITICAL VALUES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLAND AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST...BUT AS
POINTED OUT THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT ANY WARNING
FOR FWZ107/108. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL YIELD GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NM/CO BORDER TONIGHT
BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND DEEPER TROUGH CARVES ITSELF FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING TREND INTO
NORTHERN NM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE STILL NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT THE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT WITH A LOW OVER THE
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX BORDER WILL DRIVE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
WILL RUN THE RISK OF EXCEEDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTENING DEWPOINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE THE RH FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO CRITICAL
VALUES. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW STARTING TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE. IN
THE PLAINS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF GUSTY WINDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LAST INTO SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVERTAKES NM AND THE
BACK DOOR FRONT IS DRAWN FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE FRONT WILL SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY.

THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A DRIER AIRMASS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES. BREEZES INCREASE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. THE NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION COULD IMPACT THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$