Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 210540 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 PM MDT THU OCT 20 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
A strong high pressure system will move over the SW
US from the W for the remainder of tonight and Friday with
little if any cloud cover and generally light winds. An exception
will be the morning downvalley drainage wind at SAF, which will become
gusty. Also, a lee trough on the eastern plains will induce some
gusty winds on Friday...especially in the region of I-40.
.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT THU OCT 20 2016...
Cooler temperatures were short lived today but they will rebound
quickly Friday into the weekend to above normal readings areawide
as the dry, upper level ridge shifts eastward. Look for an
increase in shower and thunderstorm chances Monday, early Tuesday
favoring western and central areas.
A building upper level ridge will shift eastward over NM Friday
into the weekend allowing temperatures to quickly rebound above
normal areawide. Higher temperatures will favor the eastern plains
because of lee side troughing. The latest NAM12 model shows a weak
back door cold front Sunday that could have minor impacts on
temperatures across the northeast plains but readings will remain
above normal. The ridge will begin breaking down Sunday as it
exits the state allowing some high level moisture/high clouds to
increase from the south.
Greater amounts of moisture will seep northward into AZ and
western NM Monday as a weak upper level shortwave inches toward
the state, with southwest flow to follow. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will favor western and central areas Monday evening/early
Tuesday, with activity possibly tapering down late Tuesday. Rain
amounts will not be impressive with these showers as they look to
favor amounts at or less than a quarter of an inch.
A rather quiet pattern looks to set up Wednesday toward the end of
the week as a re-developing upper level ridge dominates the
entire Desert Southwest. Temperatures will remain above normal
throughout the entire period.
No critical fire conditions are expected during the next seven days.
Near to slightly below average temperatures today and tonight will
not last long as high pressure aloft builds over NM Friday. Models
agree that the ridge axis will shift far enough east on Friday
afternoon to result in a relatively weak surface lee trough across
northeast NM. This lee trough will strengthen somewhat Saturday,
resulting in breezy west and southwest winds mainly of the central
mountain chain. Not much change expected Sunday with westerly
breezes continuing mainly east of the central mountains.
Models continue with the idea of bringing a slug of subtropical
moisture up from the southwest beginning late-day Sunday into
Sunday night and Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms are
possible across far the western NM Sunday afternoon and overnight
with a better shot across the western third Monday afternoon. GFS
and ECMWF now bring in drier air aloft in from the west-northwest
on Tuesday with a ridge of high pressure building in Wednesday and
Thursday. All global models have backed off on an an upper level
trough/closed low across the Desert Southwest Friday into early
next week. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all keep the trough north of
the state. Forecast confidence for late next week remains low with
little run to run consistency.
Ventilation rates remain mostly poor across most areas Friday. Rates
improve across all but the Rio Grande Valley and southeast plains
Saturday. Vent rates are then forecast to drop into the poor
category behind a weak backdoor wind shift Sunday and Monday.