Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 221749 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE WEST
WITH STRONGER STORMS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. LOW CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY TUES MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LESS
STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BRUSHES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. CHANCES TO BE LOWEST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY. SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS FIRST A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT RETROGRADES SOME TOWARD EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND LATER ANOTHER AND STRONGER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY AFTER TODAY IT LOOKS LIKE NM WILL BE GETTING OUT OF THE
HIGH RISK HEAVY RAIN BUSINESS FOR AT LEAST AWHILE AND UMBRELLA
SALES MAY DIP A BIT. BUT TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LATTER MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH...WILL STILL BRING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE KEPT AS IS FOR THIS EARLY MORN FCST
PACKAGE...BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE EAST SLOPES OF
SANDIAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...ALONG WITH
THEIR ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST. THE LATTER AREA GOT HAMMERED
QUITE STRONGLY WITH HEAVY RAIN WITH CIMARRON VICINITY REPORTEDLY
HIT THE HARDEST. WHILE STILL SOME SPOTTY RAINS ONGOING AS OF THIS
WRITING...NO HEAVY RAIN IS CURRENTLY BEING NOTED ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN
CURRENT WATCH AREA WILL BE HIT THE HARDEST WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVE. NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ACCESSING
NEWER FCST MODEL DATA THROUGH THE DAY AND UPDATING WATCH
CONFIGURATION IF NEEDED BASED ON ANY PROJECTED SHIFTS IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT EVE RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH TUE THROUGH THU BEING MORE OF A
RECYCLING MODE FOR MOISTURE AND PRECIP. AFTER WEAK TO MODERATE
DRYING ACROSS NW HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TUE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH...SOME FURTHER DRYING SHOULD
OCCUR MIDWEEK DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR TO JUST
WEST OF AZ LINE.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY THU AFTN OR FRI. MODELS
INDICATE THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE N AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA THEN SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS EVEN
RETROGRADE AROUND UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION...POSS INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD. ANOTHER VERY DEEP
TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST BY FRI...THOUGH
CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH ITS ARRIVAL
THERE. THIS COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AGAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SAT AND MON.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST DIFFERENCES EMERGE LATE SUNDAY IN
FEATURE PLACEMENT WITHIN AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC WEATHER STORY. RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS RECEIVING A NORTHERN CLIP FROM SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SALT LAKE AREA EN ROUTE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLIPPED BY EXTREME
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TIME FOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPSTREAM...SUBSTANTIAL
NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFYING ABOUT CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE
CANADIAN WEST COAST WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE HANGS TOUGH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO IN CENTRAL CANADA. WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL START SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE SATURDAY. DOMESTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION BOTH AGREE ON THE IDEA...BUT
GFS IS RUNNING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF ECMWF IN PLACING CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND MOVING TROUGH BASE INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO BY SUNDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK...WITH GFS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AS CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED. GFS BUILDS TRAILING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISING SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME TIME TO RESOLVE
THE DIFFERENCES...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST THINKING POINTED AT AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE OUTER PERIODS.

FOR TODAY...COOLER AND SHOWERY...WITH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HEAVIEST SHOWER FOCUS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF EASTERN LINCOLN AND
CHAVES COUNTIES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 60S EAST...AND 30S AND 40S IN
THE WEST WITH GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURE REBOUND MOVES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH
AND EAST BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DRAMATIC DOWN TICK IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AT
GREATLY REDUCED INTENSITY. SOLID DRYING OUT BRINGING WESTERN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20S AND 30S PCT...WHILE THE EAST REMAINS IN THE
30S AND 40S PCT. GRADUAL DEGRADING OF VENTILATION...WITH BEST
CONDITIONS IN THE EAST...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MARGINAL IN THE
WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING SOLIDLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE BACK TO THE EAST IN
A STEADY TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY REGIME AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WEST...WITH FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS IN THE
EAST. CONTINUED GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...BEST IN THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL
PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
WEST COAST TROUGH MAKES AGONIZINGLY SLOW APPROACH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE EAST AND BACK INTO THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL
BOOSTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S WEST AND 40S PCT EAST.
IMPROVING VENTILATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING
GOOD OR BETTER...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST...AND IN THE NORTHEAST...BY SATURDAY.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-523>526-533>540.

&&

$$









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.