Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 061158 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
458 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs. Look for thicker
periods of mid/upper level cloudiness. Thinning clouds during the
overnight hours. Wind speeds will be gusty at times by midday.
Gust btwn 30-35 kt possible at GUP/LVS. Lessening but steady wind
by sunset.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sliding through the plains early this morning will
keep temperatures much chillier today across the east compared to
yesterday. Most areas will be 20 to 30 degrees colder than
Monday`s readings. Elsewhere, temperatures will drop a few degrees
thanks to the cloud cover. A much stronger front will arrive on
Wednesday and Wednesday night which will drop temperatures into
the single digits and teens across most of the area Wednesday
night. On Thursday, much of northern and eastern New Mexico will
struggle to reach the freezing mark. Warmer conditions are
expected for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first front of the week is working its way southward across the
plains this morning. Breezy conditions have been apparent along the
TX border with gusts near 30 mph or so. Temperatures will be much
colder today across the plains, generally 20 to 30 degrees below
yesterdays readings.  Less change is expected across western and
central areas, though these areas may be a few degrees colder thanks
to the abundant high clouds overspreading the area.  By the
afternoon, low level winds across the plains will have veered around
to the south and southeast while southwesterly breezes will prevail
across central and western areas.  With some lift provided at upper
levels ahead of the next wave, combined with the low level
convergence/upslope, expect some snow to develop this aftn through
early Wednesday across the northern mountains. A few inches of snow
will be possible across the high peaks and west slopes. A winter
weather advisory may be needed, but will let the day shift take
another look as snow amounts have generally been decreasing over the
last day or so.

On Wednesday, a stronger front will impact the state as the parent
wave slides eastward. Behind both the Pacific and back door segments
of the front, expect breezy to windy conditions. A few areas may hit
wind advisory during the morning and early afternoon hours. The
bigger story, however, will be the coldest temperatures of the
season moving into the north on Wed and expanding Wed night. Wed
night temps will largely be in the teens and single digits, with
wind chill values even lower. High temperatures on Thursday will be
quite cold, especially across the north and east where most locales
will struggle to get above freezing.

West-northwest flow will prevail Friday through at least the
weekend. A strengthening lee side trough and resultant downslope
flow will help increase temps considerably for Friday across the
plains. Warming will continue on Saturday, though the GFS shows a
sharper trough sliding across the north. Should this occur, breezier
conditions and perhaps some light snow will be possible across the
northern mtns.  Otherwise, just some occasional breezy to windy
conditions look possible through the early part of next week.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No major changes to the gridded forecast. The jet will remain active
over the central/southern Rockies through Wednesday then reintensify
during the weekend and most likely lasting well into next week.
Precipitation will be scant overall during the next several days
with just some chances across the NW half later today into
Wednesday. Minimal amounts of teen humidity is expected during this
period thus strong wind/low humidity alignment is not really
expected.

Near term focus will be placed on the jet position and embedded
waves riding along the jet and corresponding surface cold fronts.
The main wave energy is expected to slide over the central/southern
Rockies and provide a focus for some snow showers later today into
Wednesday morning. The northwest half would be favored. More
importantly, temperatures will cool due to a modified arctic
airmass blast Wed/Wed night. Wind speeds will be varied but
generally gusty both today and Wed most areas. The first cold
front will wash out over the eastern plains with some spillage
into the Rio Grande Valley this morning. The more potent cold
front comes on Wednesday. Humidity values are not expected to be a
concern with near to below normal temps most areas...especially
across the east. Ventilation will be pretty decent most areas due
to higher transport winds.

Jet winds will relax some aloft Thu/Fri. Ventilation will lower
significantly as a result. Mixing heights will also be on the lower
side.

The jet will reintensify over the central/southern Rockies during
the weekend. Surface and transport wind speeds will increase as a
result. A traditional Pacific cold frontal passage is expected
Saturday night. Wind speeds look to be stronger on Saturday compared
to Sunday at this time. Models have been showing a similar and
consistent pattern so confidence is pretty good. Ventilation would
certainly increase on Saturday. Models show much lower values on
Sunday although I suspect they will rise as the day gets closer.
Precipitation would be relegated to the far north. Strong
downsloping would impact the east Saturday so suspect RH values will
lower than what is currently in gridded forecast. Also think the
gridded wind speeds will end up being a bit stronger than is
currently indicated.

As mentioned above...the jet should remain focused over the central
and southern Rockies much of next week. Suspect there will be areas
and periods of decent ventilation and then areas/periods of not so
great ventilation. It looks dry at this time with periods of
enhanced breeziness. Models have been showing this trend the past
few days.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
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