Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 312341 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...EXPANDING INTO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
EVENING. TAFS WRITTEN WITH VCTS GROUP AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VCSH PLACE HOLDING FOR LEADING OR
TRAILING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR LONGER PERIODS. EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL FALL TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS IN
TAF FOR LVS...AND MT OBSCURATION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. REPEAT CONVECTIVE PERFORMANCE FOR
FRIDAY...WITH INITIATION WEST AND CENTRAL AND EXPANSION INTO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UP SLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWN TICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

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