Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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774
FXUS65 KABQ 270520 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS NEAR KFMN...BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THREE STORMS WILL IMPACT NM...THE CURRENT ONE...THE
SECOND ONE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE THIRD ONE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS...WITH
DAYTIME THUNDER AND NIGHTTIME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS. A LONG STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ARE DEPARTING THE EASTERN
PLAINS. TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
NM WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS
EVENING WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

A BREAK BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS READINGS...BUT STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN TODAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT STORM WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. 700 MB TEMPS OF 0C TO -4C THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL MEAN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WAFFLING NORTH AND SOUTH
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...MAKING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS TRICKY.

THE THIRD STORM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY
AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND LAS VEGAS NV BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM THEN TAKES A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY FAVORING THE NORTH.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION HAS DEPARTED NEW MEXICO...THE
ATTENDANT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF NEW MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE AN UPTICK IN RIDGETOP NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER JET SLIDES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE MOST
OF THIS AFTERNOONS SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH
DURING THE NIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE A SFC
BOUNDARY WILL DROP OUT OF COLORADO ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COULD
ALLOW FOR A SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LESS WIND OVERALL WITH HIGHS WARMING 5 TO 10
DEGREES...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE RGV AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE MIN RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT AND THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LOCALE IN THE EAST
CENTRAL THAT EXPERIENCES AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT WORTH ANY HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN THE LOW HAINES FORECAST AND
SPOTTY AREAL COVERAGE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM APPROACHING NEW MEXICO. THE WIND/MOISTURE FORECAST TRICKY
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MODELS ALL HAVE A DIFFERENT IDEA OF
THE SOUTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL RETREAT DURING THE DAYTIME AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. WENT WITH A DRIER SCENARIO AS THE
12Z NAM AND GFS SEEM TO AGREE BETTER ON THE EXTENT OF DRYING OR AT
LEAST BACKED THE FRONT NEWD DURING THE DAYTIME...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
NEVER APPEARED TO RETROGRADE THE FRONT. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES TREND A
LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE OTHER 12Z MODELS THOUGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
DRIER FORECAST LEADS TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM THE MIDDLE RGV OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SINCE THIS LARGER TEMPORAL AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS RESULTING FROM SOMEWHAT OF A FORECASTER
BIAS/JUDGEMENT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS
TIME. BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IN THE EAST WILL BE AT PARTLY DEPENDENT WHERE THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM QUEUED UP FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD BE WET FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AND VENT RATES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF POOR RATES
SHOW UP IN NE NM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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