Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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711
FXUS65 KABQ 170532 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1032 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Received reports of 3 to 4 inches of snow already in Los Alamos
and Quemazon SNOTEL reporting about 6 inches. Looks like this is a
localized effect stemming from the low level upslope flow. Though
the snow, per radar, has tapered some for now in the KLAM area,
another batch of precip is moving up from the south, and should
result in additional accumulations. Thus, a winter weather
advisory has been issued until 12Z. WSW already out. Will get ZFP
and other updates out shortly.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...454 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Most TAF sites hanging on to VFR conditions late this afternoon
aside from KFMN which is IFR. But CIGS and VSBYS will lower
tonight at most TAF sites, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected.
KLVS could drop to LIFR in BR or FZFG. SCT low elevation rain and
mt snow showers through approximately 09z with mt obscurations.
Conditions gradually improve late Tuesday morning and afternoon,
although ISOLD rain and mt snow showers will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will continue through Tuesday as a weak upper
level storm system lingers over New Mexico. Additional light snow
accumulations are likely around the high terrain. Patchy freezing
fog will also develop overnight within many valleys and low lying
areas. Wednesday and Thursday will be the nicest days of the week as
warmer and drier air filters into the area. An active winter storm
pattern will return Friday and continue through much of next week. A
powerful jet stream will arrive over the southwestern United States
and increase the chance for several rounds of windy, cold, and snowy
weather for the entire area through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A remnant trough axis over northern NM and a weak back door cold
front sliding through the plains will continue to force showers
over the region thru early Tuesday. Upslope flow along the east
slopes of the central mt chain will enhance light snowfall with
amounts generally less than 2 inches. Gap winds within the RGV
may allow for a period of convergence along the Cont Dvd as well
with light accumulations there tonight. The other consideration
will be freezing fog which could become widespread within central
and western valleys, as well as the northeast highlands and the
Interstate 40 corridor east of ABQ. The focus for additional rain
and snow showers is expected to shift into southern NM Tuesday as
the upper trough ejects eastward toward far west TX thru the day.

Another round of fog is likely Wednesday morning with improving
radiational cooling and abundant boundary layer moisture. Warmer
and drier conditions will arrive Wednesday and Thursday as flow
aloft increases and backs from NW to zonal thru the period. The
east will warm up significantly with downslope flow. Winds will
near advisory level around the typical central highlands area
from Clines Corners to Vaughn. High clouds will approach quickly
from the west late Thursday as a powerful jet stream arrives on
the west coast.

Big changes will arrive Friday as a 160 to 180kt 300mb jet slams
into California with deep layer moisture and significantly colder
air. This pattern will eject several waves across NM Friday thru
much of next week. Each will be progressively colder with windy
conditions and the potential for snow over many areas, especially
central and western NM. At this time the two highlight periods
will be Saturday and Tuesday.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As a portion of the upper low that moved through southeast NM Sunday
merges with an upper level trough over northern Baja, scattered rain
and mountain snow showers will continue until several hours after
midnight tonight. As the two above mentioned features merge and
develop a closed low over southwest NM Tuesday afternoon, widely
scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop across the
west-central, southwest and south-central mountains as well as the
southeast plains.

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look like dry and relatively warm
days as an upper level ridge moves over. Next upper level trough to
impact the region moves in from the west Thursday night into Friday.
This system will favor the northwest third of the state Thursday
night and across the western and northern mountains Friday. This
system is significantly colder that this past weekend`s storm with
snow levels falling to basin/valley floors across the northwest half
of the state.

A deeper and more moist upper trough remains on track for the
weekend. This system too is relatively cold with snow levels
dropping to basin/valley floors along and west of the central
mountain chain. The active pattern continues into early next week
with another storm system progged for Monday night or Tuesday.

Mainly poor ventilation rates are forecast for Tuesday with
some improvement south of I-40 Wednesday and Thursday.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ511.

&&

$$



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