Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS FORECAST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND
KABQ THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. AT KSAF...IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN LATEST
OBSERVATION WITH SNOW BAND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN TAF. MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KSAF BETWEEN 10-16Z...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLVS IN
FZFG NOT STEADY-STATE...WITH IMPROVEMENT FORECAST AFTER 10Z. IFR
CONDITIONS AT KTCC FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 13Z...WITH WINDS
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY MID DAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 40KTS
LIKELY AT KTCC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KROW
THROUGH 10Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT
MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW IS ON THE WAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LATER THIS EVENING...ALL THE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RATON RIDGE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST
ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS IN
STORE...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE STATE LATE CHRISTMAS DAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE PRECIPITATION...BREEZES AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE WEEK
WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...SNOW...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE DAY
AFTER CHRISTMAS.

BANDED SNOW BEGAN THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM IN LINE WITH MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE STATE.  THUS...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD AID IN SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW
WILL ALSO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AS WELL AS THE RATON RIDGE. WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY INTO ZONE 516...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF TAOS...BUT ALSO
FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OTHERWISE...HIGHLIGHTS IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH BELIEVE THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE 700 MB SPEED MAX OF 50 TO
60KTS WILL SLIDE WESTWARD THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY...IF NOT WINDY...OVERNIGHT.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN A WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS PLACES LIKE MAGDALENA RIDGE SHOULD
BLOW QUITE WELL...WITH GUSTS EVEN OVER 60MPH FOR A TIME.

ADDITIONALLY....THERE ARE SHOWERS PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THIS AFTN...INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE.
THESE SHOWERS ARE DRAGGING SOME OF THE STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
45-50KTS. THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. A BELT OF
50-60KT 7H WINDS WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
AS SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM IS TRANSLATED TO THE SURFACE...IT IS LIKELY
THAT AREAS AROUND CLAYTON WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 50KT...AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD BE QUITE WINDY. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR UNION COUNTY...AND ADDITIONAL ZONES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS
BORDER WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORIES. WITH SNOW LIKELY TO BE ON
THE GROUND FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS PRECIP...BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A
FACTOR. ADDITIONALLY...AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH PREVIOUS STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT EVENTS...DUST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO MAY BE PICKED
UP AND CARRIED INTO NORTHEAST NM. THE DUST SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A LAYER OF DUST ON TOP OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.

THE SNOW SHOULD LARGELY END TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING. AFTERWARDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND ANY REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE QUITE FRIGID...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...AND SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM.

QUIETER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH REMAINING CHILLY.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH
MANY AREAS IN THE 60S.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD
NORTHERN NM CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE
LOOKS TO BE MANY SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS NM AROUND THE MAIN
TROUGH. AT LEAST NORTHERN NM SHOULD RECEIVE SOME PRECIP OUT OF
IT...BUT MORE CONFIDENCE LIES WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. AFTER A TOASTY...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING...CHRISTMAS DAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 30S ON THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW STRETCHING FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST MT TOP WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE CONTDVD REGION TONIGHT...SO EXPECT SOME STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THERE...ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGETOPS AND PEAKS
WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH OR GREATER POSSIBLE. BY EARLY TUESDAY
STRONGEST CORE OF H7 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 45
MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH. ELSEWHERE TUESDAY BRISK NORTH WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORESO
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE TEMPORARILY RULES THE REGION.

SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT FAVORING THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...FAR NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN.  SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE RGV WESTWARD SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER TONIGHT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND NW FACING SLOPES COULD PICK UP A
COUPLE OF INCHES. ISOLATED THUNDER...WITH LOCALIZED BUT STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF OVERALL TUESDAY BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DEW POINTS CRATER TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
BELOW AVERAGE LOWS EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE UNTIL CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND OVER NRN NM. MT TOP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN
INCREASE 50KT OR SO...AND A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH
WILL BOOST HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE. SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST...THEN SPREAD INTO THE EAST AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD...SETTING UP A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS FRIDAY.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH SINKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
DOMINATES.

VENT RATES TUESDAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST...BUT WILL BE POOR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN
WORSEN FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ522-524-526-528-531>537-539.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527-530.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ530.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>512-516.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ523-529.

&&

$$

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