Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221151 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Favored areas for sct afternoon and evening thunderstorms today will
be across the western third, northern mountains, northeast
highlands/plains, south-central mountains and the southeast plains.
Isold activity expected elsewhere. Mts occasionally obscured in brief
MVFR cigs/vsbys associated with stronger tstms. Wind gusts to around
45kt will also be associated with the stronger storms. A backdoor
boundary will push south and swwd into the northern third of the
state this evening, helping to keep sct storms going until around
23/06Z. Showers and storms will diminish thereafter.



.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017...
A fairly wet period is setting up through the weekend and into early
next week, with localized flash flooding possible. Thunderstorms
will be most numerous over the western mountains later today, where
locally heavy rainfall is likely. Thunderstorms will trend up in
coverage later Sunday into Sunday night, with locally heavy rainfall
possible across much of central and western New Mexico. The western
half of the area will be favored for storms Monday, with a downtrend
beginning Tuesday then continuing through mid week. Look for rain
chances to bounce back by the end of the week. Temperatures will
trend down going into Monday and generally be below normal, but will
rebound going into the middle of the week.


An inverted trough across northern Mexico is extending into southwest
and far western New Mexico and is associated with an anomalously high
PWAT atmosphere. Light steering flow across the area today will
increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially across
the southwest mountains and surrounding highlands/valleys where
localized flash flooding is possible. An outflow boundary moved south
from Colorado overnight into the Northeast Highlands/Plains and will
likely lead to a more robust round of storms over the Sangres and
adjacent highlands later today as winds veer behind the boundary and
provide upslope flow.

PWATs are forecast to trend up across central and northeast New
Mexico overnight into Sunday night, with increasing potential for
locally heavy rainfall given light steering flow. 00z models show the
PWAT increasing to near 1.3" at KABQ Sunday night into Monday, which
would be near daily record values. Another outflow boundary is
modeled to drop south out of Colorado Saturday night and will help to
set the stage for a more robust round of convection on Sunday across
central New Mexico.

The aforementioned inverted trough is forecast to shift northwest
across Arizona Monday as the upper high, currently over the Great
Basin, transitions east and southeast across Colorado to over the
TX/OK Panhandles and eastern New Mexico. This flow pattern will favor
western New Mexico for storms Monday, with better chances spreading
east into central New Mexico Tuesday as the monsoonal moisture plume
rotates around the periphery of the upper high. A slight downtrend
in storm coverage is forecast mid week with the upper high overhead,
but drying in the 00z model solutions is not as pronounced as the 12z
solutions. Look for an uptick in storm coverage going into late week
as another inverted trough is forecast to move west across the state
under around/under the ridge.

Daytime temperatures this forecast cycle with be within 5 degrees of
normal, but are generally forecast to be below normal Sunday/Monday
due to cloud cover and rain cooling.



Upper high center to the east of NM will weaken today with the high
center over the Great Basin regaining dominance. Thunderstorms will
favor the western third, northern mountains and northeast
highlands/plains this afternoon and evening. Rain cooled air from
scattered to numerous thunderstorms over southern CO will move south
and swwd into northern NM this evening. This boundary will act as a
trigger for scattered storms across the northern third early this
evening, shifting south during the late evening.

Sunday still looking like the most active day areawide.
Thunderstorms are forecast to continue well into Sunday night as a
backdoor boundary moves into the state from the northeast. Weak
steering flow aloft will likely result in heavy rainfall amounts and
an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for recent
burn scars.

Monday remains plenty moist and unstable despite the Four Corners
high building overhead. Monday looking like an above average crop of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly across central and
western NM. GFS wants to begin drying things out some Tuesday but
the ECMWF is having none of it. 700mb (near mt top level) flow
continues to be southerly/southwesterly in both models Tuesday so
mid-level moisture advection from the south continues. GFS elongates
the Four Corners high over the Southern Plains states and NM
Wednesday, attempting to at least partially cut off upper level
moisture advection from the south. ECMWF is farther east with the
upper high, keeping mid and upper level moisture streaming northward
into NM.

Both GFS and ECMWF send the upper high wwd during the latter part of
next week. North to northwest flow aloft that develops over northern
NM results in backdoor boundaries moving in from southeast CO,
acting as a trigger for storms and keeping central and northern NM
quite active.

All of the convection across the higher terrain Sunday and Monday is
expected to result in poor ventilation rates. Rates will likely
improve Tuesday into mid week.






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