Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160106 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
606 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated tonight`s forecast mainly to add patchy fog along and west of
the central mountain chain. The fog will be most likely where the
ground is saturated from recent rainfall, or where snow covers the
ground. There could also be some fog across northeast areas behind a
back door cold front that will arrive tonight. However, MOS favored
low clouds over fog with the front, so resisted the urge to put areas
of fog in the forecast across the northeast. Also, tweeked
temperature, sky and POP grids in accordance with recent radar,
satellite and model guidance trends.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
The plume of subtropical moisture which provided widespread rain and
elevation snow to central and northern NM is shifting southward late
this afternoon. Isolated showers and isolated MVFR ceilings will
continue this evening across south central NM. MVFR ceilings will
lift to VFR ceilings across the area by mid evening. Mountain
obscurations south of I-40 are expected tonight. West wind gusts
between 20 and 35 knots from the eastern foothills of the central
mountains across the eastern plains will decrease to less than 20
knots by 02Z. A backdoor cold front will move across the northeast
plains late this evening and into the southeast plains after midnight
with a windshift to the north to northeast at area terminals.
Ceilings will fall into the MVFR category and wind speeds will range
from 10 to 20 knots behind the cold front. Areas of clearing skies
tonight across central and western NM will cause areas of patchy fog
to form after midnight. Weak high pressure will move across northern
and central NM Friday with VFR ceilings and winds aob 15 knots.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued by National Weather Service EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.SYNOPSIS...
Much needed precipitation will slowly be coming to an end for most of
the area this evening and overnight as the moisture channel shifts
south. Meanwhile a back door cold front is poised to move into the
east overnight setting the stage for much cooler temperatures east of
the central mountains for Friday. Most areas will stay dry into the
upcoming weekend with the exception of southern areas where a few
brief showers will remain possible. Things then get busy again
Monday as another approaching storm system delivers windy conditions
to the area. We may also see a few showers across the north,
including some higher elevation snows Monday and Tuesday as this
system swings past.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds and beneficial precipitation continue to linger over much of
the area this afternoon as a subtropical tap continues to track
northeastward across the southwestern United States. Streamwise
vorticity associated with ejecting shortwaves has resulted in
several inches of welcome snowfall across area mountains while areas
around the Albuquerque metro have totaled close to one half inch of
rainfall or more. The story has been similar elsewhere with the
exception of the eastern plains where visible satellite images reveal
a bit more filtered sun through an expanding cirrus shield. This has
also led to slightly warmer temps across the eastern zones. But this
will be changing shortly.

A positively tilted trough across the western states that currently
extends from the central Rockies back to the central California
coast will shift southward over New Mexico the next 24 hours with
the help of strong shortwave energy racing out of southwest Canada en
route to a position across the central plains by early Friday
morning. This will essentially result in two things... first of all
the precip band with be sagging south and aligning over areas just to
our south. As a result we will see most of the precip slowly winding
down this evening and overnight with the exception of our southern
zones where precip chances carry over into Friday. Secondly, a decent
back door front will quickly make it`s way into the eastern plains
overnight with significant temp drops of up to 20 degrees from this
afternoon.

Heading into the weekend things look fairly quite for most of the
area as drier air filters in from the northwest and westerly flow
resumes at the surface allowing for milder temperatures. But this
lull in the action will be temporary at best. Another vigorous trough
will begin to dig into the inter-mountain west by early next week.
While this will again result in somewhat of a subtropical tap for
the area, the better moisture looks to stay just to our south.
However, this system will induce classic lee side troughing,
thus strengthening surface gradients and causing stronger west winds
for Monday. As we combine this with mixing of higher speed winds
aloft, we will likely be looking at a very windy day with possible
advisory level winds to start the new week. Some light precipitation
will also be possible early next week, but will likely not be of the
same magnitude that we have seen today.

In the wake of this system another back door front will bring brief
cooling to the area before yet another strong west coast system
approaches with what could be another significant precip event just
beyond this forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will be building into the region which will put an end
to the precip across the area except a few lingering showers through
Friday across the far southern zones. Temperatures Friday will
continue a downward trend but start to improve for the weekend
with cooler air moving back in for first part of next week.
In general, a west to southwest flow aloft will keep breezy
to occasionally windy conditions going, especially for higher
elevations during the forecast period. Relative humidities
will be returning into the mid teens to upper 20s starting
Saturday and continuing into early next week. Near critical
conditions are possible early next week, but at this time it looks
like relative humidities will remain a little too high.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ510>514.

&&

$$

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