Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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167
FXUS65 KABQ 211126
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
426 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A backdoor cold front will move across eastern NM this morning. The
front will produce a wind shift to the N/NNE at KLVS and KTCC around
17Z and at KROW at 18Z. Winds gusts to near 30 knots are possible
late this morning through late afternoon across the eastern plains.
The cold front will weaken as it moves eastward today, and wind
gusts across central NM, including KABQ, late this afternoon and
early this evening will generally be below 15 knots. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected for all of central and northern NM with
scattered high clouds through Wednesday morning.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will keep northern and central
New Mexico dry through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and possibly
for the rest of November. Although a cold front will impact the
eastern plains today with gusty north winds and then again Saturday,
temperatures overall will be well above normal. A few near record to
record highs are possible especially Thanksgiving Day and Friday.
Winds will increase early next week as stronger west to northwest
flow aloft develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Batches of cirrus clouds will continue to track over northern and
central New Mexico today through Wednesday as a ridge of high
pressure aloft strengthens to our west. A cold front will sink into
the eastern plains today on gusty north winds, and possibly into the
RGV this evening on a relatively light east wind. A few showers
could develop over far northeast New Mexico around midday in
conjunction with the front, but chances for measurable precipitation
are quite slim.

Highs Wednesday look to be a bit cooler but remain above average.
Temperatures warm Thanksgiving Day and Friday with potential for
some gusty downslope winds along and east of the central mountain
chain Friday. Another cold front will impact the eastern plains
Friday night/Saturday with 10 to 15 degrees of cooling, but the west
will see little change temperature-wise.

By Sunday, the upper high center will have drifted to Chihuahua,
with the ridge axis extending north to south through New Mexico and
into Colorado.

Westerly winds increase next Monday as the ridge gives way to zonal
then northwest flow and persist next Tuesday thanks to a dry cold
front plunging through the state from the north and east.  A
stronger system in northwest flow around the end of November/Dec 1
could brush northern and eastern portions of the state, favoring the
Sangre de Cristo mountains with a few showers. Otherwise, this
system would bring windy and cooler weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak, fast-moving trough will dive east-southeastward today from
the northern Rockies this morning to central TX by late this
afternoon This feature will generate a backdoor cold front which
will move across the eastern plains this morning and reach the
central mountains by late afternoon. North-northeast winds behind
the front will range from 15 to 25 mph across the eastern plains
this afternoon. As the front moves westward toward the central
mountains, it will weaken and northeast winds will decrease to less
than 15 mph. There will be significant cooling and an increase in
low-level moisture in the eastern plains today behind the cold
front. Ventilation will be good to excellent in the eastern plains,
but only fair to poor to the west.

A large upper level high over western AZ and northwestern MX will
expand eastward over NM Wednesday through Thursday. This system will
produce unusually warm temperatures and light winds. High
temperatures Wednesday will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above
normal. high temperatures Thursday will increase further and will
range from 6 to 17 degrees above normal with a few high temperatures
nearing record highs for the date. Ventilation Wednesday and
Thursday will be poor with light winds predominating.

The upper high over the Southwest will weaken Friday, as a trough in
the northern Rockies rapidly moves east-southeast to the middle
Mississippi Valley by Friday evening. This will cause winds aloft to
shift from the north-northwest to the west-northwest and increase. A
lee surface trough will develop in eastern NM Friday. Stronger winds
aloft and the surface trough in eastern NM will produce breezy
conditions across the east central plains and the higher elevations
of the central mountains Friday afternoon. Downsloping west to
northwest winds will produce warm and dry conditions east of the
central mountains with highs 15 to 22 degrees above normal.
Ventilation will improve to fair across east central NM Friday, but
will still be poor elsewhere.

Another backdoor cold front will move from the eastern plains to the
Rio Grande Valley late Friday night into Saturday. The front will
bring slightly cooler air to the eastern plains, but high
temperatures will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Temperatures will increase to well above normal Sunday and Monday,
as the upper high amplifies and moves slowly eastward across NM and
West TX. Ventilation will be poor Saturday behind the backdoor cold
front and will range from poor to fair Sunday and Monday, as winds
become light under the large high pressure area aloft.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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