Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 201124 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TERMINALS
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACT ARE KLVS...KTCC AND KSAF (IN THAT ORDER).

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...ALL BUT ELIMINATING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEST OF A LINE FROM GALLUP TO CHAMA. THE UPPER LEVEL FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL SHIFTS NORTH INTO COLORADO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PUSHING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE. AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FOUR CORNERS HIGH. HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A RATHER MEDIOCRE MONSOONAL PLUME TO MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ALL AREAS IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL INDICATING THAT CONVECTION
WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVITY IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 MPH.

SIMILAR CROP OF STORMS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN...BRIEFLY
ENDING CHANCES THERE. UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALL BUT ELIMINATING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THERE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE NM/AZ BORDER AS A
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE. BACKDOOR FRONTS ALSO LIKELY TO GET INTO
THE MIX BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...TRENDING DOWN TOWARD AVERAGE BY
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUBTLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID TO LATE JULY THANKS
TO A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION.

AN UNIMPRESSIVE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOWING IN THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER EASTERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY. WETTING RAINS WILL
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...THEN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/PLAINS THIS EVENING. MINIMUM RHS WILL REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON MOISTURE TRENDS FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH
SOME DRYING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME MOISTENING IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NE A BIT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DRYING IS FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH TRANSITIONS BACK OVER NEW MEXICO
AND BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...OR POSSIBLY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. HAINES INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP LATE WEEK AND
BE 6S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.