Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 282355 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered -SHRA/TSRA moving north near 10 kt along and west of the
Cont Dvd will mainly impact KGUP and KFMN thru the overnight. MVFR
cigs/vsbys are possible from the stronger cells but likelihood is
low at terminals. A few sprinkles or -SHRA along the central mt
chain will attempt to develop thru the night but mostly thick mid
and high clouds are expected. Tomorrow will be a near repeat of
today with the focus for even greater coverage of -SHRA/TSRA along
and west of the central mt chain.
.PREV DISCUSSION...351 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016...
A weak upper low over southern California will draw moisture up from
Tropical Depression Roslyn, bringing it northward across western
New Mexico tonight through Thursday night. The best chances for
showers and storms will be across western areas. The moisture and
associated showers and thunderstorms will shift to the northeast
and across the northwest half of the state Friday. Drier air will
filter in from the west on Saturday, limiting showers and
thunderstorms to isolated mainly across the north. Sunday is
forecast to be dry with light winds. Winds increase substantially
Monday, ahead of an unseasonably strong upper low and cold front.
Weak closed upper low centered over southern California this
afternoon. Models continue with bringing up a slug of moisture
associated with Tropical Depression Roslyn across western NM late
tonight through Thursday night. Models are in very good agreement
that showers and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to western
New Mexico, primarily along and west of the continental divide.
Moisture shifts northeastward on Thursday night and Friday,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northwest half
or so of the state. Models continue to trend slightly wetter
for Friday. NAM12 in particular is developing much more in the
way of shower and thunderstorm coverage north of I-40 Friday
Global models continue to bring in dry air aloft in from the west
Saturday. NAM12 develops scattered convection Saturday afternoon
but this appears to be an artifact of a small domain. At any rate,
raised precip chances slightly across the north given the amount
of low and perhaps mid-level moisture likely remaining in place
12z GFS catching on to a stronger upper level jet and is now more
in line with the ECMWF with regard to an unseasonably strong upper
level closed low for early next week. Both models now indicating
that a Fujiwhara effect (two upper lows orbiting one another)
will take place just off the British Columbia coast Friday. The
result is an upper low digging farther south along the west coast during
the weekend. With the flow aloft backing more ahead of the low,
winds are no longer expected to increase much on Sunday.
This unseasonably deep upper low/trough then plows e-sewd through
the western Great Basin Sunday night and Monday. Southwest winds
will likely increase substantially Monday morning ahead of the
associated surface cold front. GFS and ECMWF now both bring the
cold front through western and central areas sometime around
midday Monday, then through the eastern plains late in the day.
GFS is oddly dry but ECMWF continues with idea of bringing
precipitation through NM along near the cold front. Both models
indicating that 700mb temps will fall to near -2C across the north
which would suggest snow will be the precip type above about 8500
A wetting trend is underway as moisture streams north across the
Desert Southwest and into New Mexico around the periphery of the
upper high circulation, currently centered over southwest Texas.
Humidity and chances for wetting rain will continue to trend up
through Friday, with good to excellent humidity recovery areawide by
A drying/warming trend will kick-off Saturday, with above normal
daytime temperatures forecast areawide. Winds will be on the uptrend
over the weekend as well, but will increase significantly by Monday
as a potent upper low swings east across the Great Basin and into
the central Rockies. Windy conditions are forecast Monday with a
deepening lee side trough, but the 12z medium range model solutions
differ on the timing of a Pacific front and preceding moisture.
Forecaster confidence is relatively high on windy conditions Monday,
but lower on humidity with at least some potential for critical fire
weather conditions, especially east of the central mountain chain.
Cooling behind the front late Monday will bring below normal
temperatures Tuesday, which may extend into Wednesday.